Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Water Mill, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 7:45PM Monday August 19, 2019 11:59 PM EDT (03:59 UTC) Moonrise 10:00PMMoonset 9:43AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ350 Moriches Inlet Ny To Montauk Point Ny Out 20 Nm- 922 Pm Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw late. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening.
Thu..SW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Chance of tstms in the evening. Chance of showers.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 4 ft.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 922 Pm Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak cold front will slowly move into the forecast waters tonight, then south and east of the ocean waters late. High pressure builds briefly across the area Tuesday with a wave of low pressure developing late Tuesday and approaching Tuesday night. A warm front will move north of the waters Wednesday. A cold front will slowly approach Wednesday night and move through the waters Thursday night. High pressure builds Friday and remains into the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Water Mill, NY
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location: 40.86, -72.31     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 200136
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
936 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019

Synopsis
A weak cold front will slowly move through the region during the
evening, and into late tonight. High pressure builds briefly
across Tuesday with a wave of low pressure developing late
Tuesday and approaching Tuesday night. A warm front will move
north of the area Wednesday. A cold then slowly approaches
Wednesday night and moves through Thursday night. High pressure
builds Friday and remains into the beginning of next week.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
A weak cold front will continue to slowly cross the area
tonight. With any lingering showers well offshore and northerly
flow in the wake of the front ushering in drier air, conditions
are expected to remain dry through the rest of the night.

Overnight lows will generally range from the upper 60s to lower
70s, with a few readings in the mid 60s possible across outlying
areas.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
High pressure builds across the area with a northerly surface
flow allowing dew points to be lower and temperatures to be a
few degrees cooler than Monday. Overall, a little less hot and
humid with heat indices reaching a MAX in upper 80s to near 90.

Showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday evening as a wave of
low pressure approaches and moves across the area. High
temperature Tuesday will be in the upper 80s to near 90 with
night time lows in the low to mid 70s.

There is a low risk of rip currents at ocean beaches for
Tuesday.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
A longwave upper trough across eastern canada will be slowly
digging into the upper midwest and northeastern states
Wednesday into Friday, with the eastward progression slowed by a
ridge remaining in the western atlantic. Vort maxes will be
rotating through the upper trough. Meanwhile, at the mid and low
levels, the area remains on the western periphery of the
bermuda high. A slightly cooler and drier airmass will be in
place early Wednesday, then warm advection sets up early and a
warm front is expected to push through the region. There is some
uncertainty as to the timing and areal extent of precipitation
Wednesday and will depend on the energy rotating through the
upper trough. The area will destabilize by the afternoon and
shear and lapse rates will support the possibility of stronger
storms. With the area currently in a marginal risk for Wednesday
have added heavy rainfall and gusty winds in the afternoon and
into the early evening. With the airmass as warm as Monday
decided to lean toward the much warmer GFS guidance and even
raised temperatures for Wednesday highs. Heat indices will
therefore once again peak into the mid 90s.

With the slower progression of the upper low and cold front,
there will be chances of precipitation remaining into Thursday.

The front may even stall for a time Thursday, before pushing
through Thursday night as ridging does build to the west, and
the cooler and drier airmass moves the front through the area.

Canadian high pressure builds for Friday through the beginning
of next week with a much drier airmass.

Aviation 02z Tuesday through Saturday
High pressure builds overnight into Tuesday.

Vfr conditions are expected overnight and Tuesday. An isolated
shower or thunderstorm is possible in the afternoon.

Winds will be light as they veer from SW to N tonight. NE winds
Tuesday morning will shift to the S SE by afternoon.

Outlook for 00z Wednesday through Saturday
Tuesday night-Thursday MainlyVFR, but sub-vfr possible in
showers or thunderstorms.

Thursday night-Saturday Vfr.

Marine
Conditions are expected to remain below SCA criteria for the
waters through Tuesday with sub small craft conditions expected
Tuesday night.

An increasing south to southwest flow Wednesday into Wednesday
night ahead of an approaching cold front will allow for ocean
seas to build to SCA levels by late Wednesday night into
Thursday. The cold front will pass through the waters Thursday
night, with winds shifting to the northwest. Ocean seas will
then subside below SCA levels by Friday morning. Winds across
the forecast waters are expected to remain below SCA levels
Wednesday through Friday.

Then Friday night through Sunday winds and seas will remain
below SCA as high pressure builds into the region.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are expected at this time through the
forecast period.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Fig met
near term... Feb fig 19
short term... Fig
long term... Met
aviation... Pw
marine... Feb fig met 19
hydrology... Feb fig met
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 18 mi50 min SW 9.7 G 12 76°F 1016.2 hPa72°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 23 mi66 min 72°F 72°F1015.8 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 37 mi66 min SSW 1 G 2.9 74°F 72°F1015.2 hPa
44069 43 mi60 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 76°F 80°F73°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi66 min N 4.1 G 6 76°F 78°F1014.9 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY17 mi2.1 hrsN 010.00 miFair69°F68°F96%1015.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3CalmS35SW5SW5W5CalmSW4SW6S5SW7SW8SW8S8SW9SW12
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW55W5SW8SW7SW7SW75SW8SW7
G15
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2 days agoE3CalmE3NE3CalmCalmE3NE5NE4E3E6E5E6E5NE5E5E5E5SE3E4CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Inlet (ocean), Long Island, New York
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Shinnecock Inlet (ocean)
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:55 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:18 AM EDT     2.89 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:10 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:28 PM EDT     2.95 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.50.80.30.10.411.72.32.72.92.82.41.81.20.70.50.611.72.32.72.92.9

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:22 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:34 AM EDT     -1.56 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:09 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:34 AM EDT     1.26 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:45 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:52 PM EDT     -1.42 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:25 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:54 PM EDT     1.24 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.3-0.5-1.1-1.5-1.5-1.1-0.6-0.10.61.21.210.6-0.2-0.9-1.3-1.4-1.2-0.7-0.20.411.21.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.