Monday, March1, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Water Mill, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 5:44PM Monday March 1, 2021 9:08 PM EST (02:08 UTC) Moonrise 9:36PMMoonset 8:57AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ350 Moriches Inlet Ny To Montauk Point Ny Out 20 Nm- 712 Pm Est Mon Mar 1 2021
.gale warning in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming nw 30 to 35 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft after midnight. Scattered flurries late this evening. Chance of light freezing spray after midnight.
Tue..NW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Chance of light freezing spray.
Tue night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds around 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ300 712 Pm Est Mon Mar 1 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A strong cold front will move through this evening. High pressure will then build in and remain in control through Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Water Mill, NY
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location: 40.86, -72.31     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 020023 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 723 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

SYNOPSIS. An Arctic front will pass this evening, producing windy and cold conditions through Tuesday. High pressure will then dominate through the week. Low pressure will pass well to the southeast on Sunday, while high pressure returns on Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. Per 00Z obs, the Arctic front is just entering NW sections of the CWA, so stronger winds should hold off until later this evening after its passage. Stray flurries have already made it as far SE as NYC, so will continue to mention iso-sct flurries as well.

The wind advy was still warranted based on the latest progs. There should be an initial surge of winds with the front tngt, then perhaps a slight slackening early in the mrng before they pick up again by 14Z. The NAM in particular keeps 50-55 kt H85 winds in til late aftn. With a deeply mixed atmosphere, the wind advy was extended a few hours to 4 pm.

Dry wx on Tue with PW around a tenth of an inch.

The NBM was used for low/high temps tngt and Tue, with minor adjustments. Wind chills tngt will drop into the single digits for LI and NYC, and will dip blw zero in spots north of there. Wind chills on Tue will not get out of the teens and lower 20s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/. A mid lvl wave passes N of the region Tue ngt. Any snow with this is progged to remain across VT and upstate NY. Dry wx is expected for the CWA. Winds aloft decrease, and the loss of diurnal heating will further allow for sfc winds and gusts to diminish. There could be enough mixing to prevent ideal radiational cooling. In addition, some mid and high lvl cloudiness is suggested in the time heights. As a result, the NBM was used for temps, which more closely resembled the NAM MOS as opposed to the much colder GFS MOS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. A deep closed low aloft will retrograde slowly W across eastern Canada through the end of the week, while upper ridging persists from the Rockies into central Canada. Quasi-zonal flow aloft over the eastern states to start will send sfc low pressure well to the south on Wed, then become more amplified through Sat, sending Canadian high pressure with dry and progressively colder air into the region on a brisk NW flow. Mild temps with highs from the mid 40s to mid 50s on Wed will only reach the lower/mid 40s on Thu and the 30s on Fri. Weak return flow as a lobe of the sfc high breaks off and sets up just off the coast should bring slight moderation for Sat, with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

The closed low across Canada should begin to weaken beginning Sat, allowing the ridge to the west to slowly build eastward to the Plains states, while a Pacific disturbance undercuts the ridge and enters the base of the longwave trough, with sfc low pressure developing in the Gulf of Mexico on Sat and then passing well to the SE on Sunday, though perhaps not as far SE as model forecasts. Given the dominance of the trough and the position of the ridge to the west, do not expect this low to get very close to the coast, and only 1 out of 51 12Z EPS members showed precip getting to the coast. Allowed a little extra wiggle room for the low to cut in more closely than the op and ensemble forecasts as is often the case in this scenario, but even still that would only warrant slight chance PoP on Sunday for Long Island and SE CT. At any rate, windy and continued cold wx expected in the wake of this departing sys on Mon, with highs only in the 30s.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. A cold front moves through the terminals this evening. High pressure then builds to the west through Tuesday morning and slides to the south Tuesday afternoon.

VFR conditions through the overnight and on Tuesday.

NW winds 15-20 kt with gusts 30-35 kt through the early evening increase to 25-30 kt gusting around 40kt. Occasional gusts as high as 45 kt possible late this evening and overnight. Winds and gusts begin to diminish Tuesday morning and may be a few kt higher than currently forecast.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

NW wind gusts may be briefly near 45 kt tonight. Wind gusts Tuesday morning may be a few kt higher than currently forecast, possibly near 40 kt especially in the morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. Tuesday night. VFR. Diminishing NW winds 10-15kt after 03Z. Wednesday through Saturday. VFR. NW winds gusting 20-30kt possible Thu.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Strongest winds and higher seas are holding off til cold fropa later this evening, still gale warning remains in effect for all waters. There could be a few isold gusts to storm force, particularly the ern zones. Some areas of light freezing spray are possible overnight and Tue as well. Low tides should approach blowout lvls during the times of low tide Tue mrng. The guidance indicated lvls would be marginal, so an advy was not issued attm. The gales diminish Tue ngt, with a SCA likely needed for most areas for the rest of the ngt, and for the eastern ocean waters on Wed.

SCA conds likely for most if not all the waters from late day Thu into Fri night or early Sat morning as NW flow increases with a reinforcing shot of colder air. Can't totally rule out gales on the outer ocean waters, but frequent gusts up to 30 kt appear more likely attm.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts anticipated attm.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for CTZ005>012. NY . Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ067>075-078>081- 176>179. NJ . Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE . Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ330-340-345-350-353- 355. Gale Warning until 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ335-338.

SYNOPSIS . JMC/Goodman NEAR TERM . JMC/Goodman SHORT TERM . JMC LONG TERM . Goodman AVIATION . MW MARINE . JMC/Goodman HYDROLOGY . JMC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 18 mi29 min WNW 23 G 31 41°F 41°F1006.8 hPa25°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 23 mi51 min 39°F 40°F1005.7 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 33 mi134 min NW 23 G 28 39°F 1002.5 hPa21°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 37 mi51 min 37°F 1005.5 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi51 min WNW 17 G 26 38°F 38°F1007.1 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY17 mi76 minWNW 14 G 2210.00 miFair38°F20°F48%1007.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE7NE5NE7NE7NE4E5SE566E8SE8SE7
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Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Inlet (ocean), Long Island, New York
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Shinnecock Inlet (ocean)
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Mon -- 02:04 AM EST     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:23 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:57 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:14 AM EST     3.39 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:29 PM EST     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:41 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:47 PM EST     3.36 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.5-0.2-0.5-0.20.51.52.43.13.43.22.61.70.80-0.5-0.50.1122.83.23.332.2

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
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Mon -- 01:37 AM EST     -1.89 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:58 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:23 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:35 AM EST     1.72 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:57 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:46 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:59 PM EST     -1.93 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:21 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:41 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:01 PM EST     1.74 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:36 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:13 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.4-1.8-1.9-1.4-0.700.91.61.71.30.7-0.2-1.1-1.7-1.9-1.7-1-0.30.61.41.71.51.10.2

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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