Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Water Mill, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) The area will remain in between high pressure to south and west and low pressure to north and east into the first half of this week.
A few frontal system pass by but without much rain. Breezy and mild conditions expected much of the time.

2) Low pressure may impact the region late Thursday into Friday night, bringing potential of widespread rain and gusty winds.
Impacts, if any, at this time are uncertain.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1

The area remains under a tight pressure gradient with low pressure to the northeast and high pressure to the southwest.
This is resulting in continued gusty conditions into this evening, and more intermittently, into Monday.

Another shortwave trough approaches the area from the northwest into Monday bringing with it another period of CAA under NW flow. This system will have a limited amount of moisture so any showers associated with this weak frontal system should be fairly isolated to scattered at best and limited to the northern and eastern portions of the area.

Mainly high pressure builds in briefly for Tuesday with another weak shortwave passing north of the area. This system will once again have limited moisture so mainly dry conditions are expected. General high pressure then takes control into the middle of the week before giving way to another potential low pressure system toward the end of the week.

Regarding temperatures, the airmass generally remains mild with temperatures staying above normal with highs staying mostly in the upper 50s to lower 60s range through Wednesday. Temperatures at night will have less radiational cooling with the boundary layer winds staying up. Lows this week will be in the 40s for much of the area but some spots may drop into the 30s especially northern and more typical cold spots.


KEY MESSAGE 2
Forecast confidence is low for the end of the week with potential low pressure impacting the region.

An amplifying trough over the eastern US will likely spawn low pressure somewhere from the Ohio to Tennessee Valley on Thursday.
The low should then begin organizing as it nears the east coast Thursday night into Friday. Main question for this time period is the exact track and intensity of the low as model spread is quite large. Solutions vary from the low passing well to our NW, a transfer/redevelopment over or SE of Long Island, to a low passing well to our south with little to no precip reaching our area.
Despite these differences, probabilities for precipitation Thursday night into Friday range from 60-80 percent, dropping to 40-50 percent Friday night. Rain will be the predominate precipitation type despite the track/ differences. The only exception would be for some interior locations in the Lower Hudson Valley mixing with some wet snow flakes as the associated upper low/trough pass overhead Friday night. The NBM probability for a dusting of snow is only about 10-15 percent for higher elevations in the NW interior. Climatology and a marginally cool air mass also favor areas well NW of our CWA for any wintry precip, if it were to occur.

The latest NBM probabilities for greater than 1 inch of rain for the event range from 35 to 55 percent across the area, highest near the coast. The latest NBM probability for greater than 2 inches of rain for the event is low and generally 5 to 15 percent, also highest near the coast.

While rain and gusty winds are the main concerns, impacts, if any, are unknown at this time due to the aforementioned uncertainty.

The upper low may linger over New England for a portion of next weekend, so conditions look cooler than normal and could remain unsettled with lingering clouds and gusty winds.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure builds to the south. A weakening cold front approaches Monday morning.

VFR prevails.

W to WNW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts as high as 30 kt through the remainder of the afternoon. Winds should diminish this afternoon and into tonight. Gusts re-develops towards daybreak on Monday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of gusts diminishing or ending late this afternoon remains uncertain, with gusts possibly lasting longer than currently indicated in TAFs.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Monday: VFR. W-NW winds G20-25kt.

Tuesday and Wednesday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt in the afternoon.

Thursday and Friday: MVFR or lower possible in possible showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
With a steep pressure gradient remaining in place across the local waters, widespread SCA wind gusts are expected to continue through Monday. As such, the SCA remains on all waters until 6PM EST Monday. For the ocean, their seas stay near 5 to 7 ft through Monday and are forecast to remain near 5 to 6 ft Monday night.
Therefore the SCA for the ocean zones out 20 NM goes further, ending at 6AM EST Tuesday.

Additional SCA wind gusts are possible Tuesday with the next frontal system passage with ocean SCA seas potentially lasting more into Tuesday as well as Tuesday night. Brief sub-SCA conditions forecast for midweek for all waters before winds and seas increase Thursday into Thursday night with potential return of SCA conditions.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ331-332-335- 338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.