Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Water Mill, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
High pressure over the region will keep conditions mostly dry through the near term period. An upper level shortwave will pivot across the region late Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will bring some cloud cover to the region. Expect a mostly cloudy afternoon/evening. As the shortwave exits the region, a few light snow showers or flurries may be possible across far eastern portion of the CWA POPs will be limited to 20 percent.
Sky conditions will gradually clear from west to east, especially towards midnight. This should set up another night of decent radiational cooling. Winds will remain rather light, especially north and west of NYC, where the coldest temperatures of the night are expected. With respect to temperatures, expect highs today to climb into the teens and lower 20s. Tonight lows will fall into the single digits and teens. A few of the normally colder spots may see temperatures fall below 0.

Just like Monday night, In terms of zone averages, wind chill values are expected to remain short of cold weather advisory criteria, which is -10 degrees F or lower for all but LI and the metro NYC, where it is -5 degrees F or lower. Would not be surprised if one or two isolated locations reach criteria, but at this time, we are not expecting these conditions to warrant any headlines.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will primarily dominate through the short term with mostly dry and cold conditions. The arctic airmass will remain over the region Wednesday highs only in the teens and lower 20s. However, temperatures will start to moderate a bit on Thursday, as a more W- SW flow develops. Highs on Thursday will be range from the middle 20s to lower 30s, with a few locations across Long Island possibly getting back above freezing. Overnight lows both nights fall into the single digits and teens, except NYC may see lows in the lower 20s Thursday night.

An area of low pressure passes offshore Thursday night. This is expected to remain far enough offshore but some forecast models show a closer approach, bringing a slight chance of snow along the southeast coastal sections of the local region Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Once again, will limit POPs to slight chance to account for this.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Main jet stream will remain south of the region and mid level trough will remain over the Northeast Friday into Friday night.
The pattern shifts thereafter to more zonal aloft going into the weekend. An upper level shortwave trough approaches next Monday.

At the surface, low pressure approaches from the west next Monday along with an accompanying cold front. There are differences between forecast models in regards to timing and placement of the low pressure and front. This will allow for a another slight chance of snow as wet bulb cooling and thicknesses show more in the way of snow. However, forecast models do not have much moisture associated with the front, with some models keeping the area dry.

Moderating temperatures for Friday into the weekend, though they will still be well below normal through the first half of the weekend. Temperatures climb above freezing by Sunday for much, if not all of the forecast area. Temperatures slowly cool for the beginning of next week, but only to slightly below normal levels.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR as high pressure builds from the west.

Winds will remain W to NW through the forecast period at 10 kt or less.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected. An isolated gusts of 15 to 20 kt is possible during the day Tuesday.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Tuesday night through Friday: VFR.

Saturday: VFR. W winds 10-15G20kt NYC metro/coastal terminals.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Small Craft Advisories will continue for a few more hours as winds and seas remain close to criteria. Otherwise, with high pressure building into the region, expected sub-SCA conditions for much of the week. SCA conditions may return this weekend, generally from late Saturday night into Sunday and mainly for the ocean waters.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic issues anticipated.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ350- 353-355.