Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sea Cliff, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
Some mid level negative vorticity advection late this evening into overnight will allow for some decrease to clouds, a bit earlier than previously forecasted. Therefore, lowered cloud cover overnight. Otherwise, forecast is on track.

Still remains a slight possibility of a quick very light rain shower or snow shower late this afternoon into early this evening. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions are expected to prevail.

However, boundary layer remains mixed with cold air advection steady through the night. Gusty winds will be occurring that will mitigate radiational cooling.

Used NBM range of lows, from upper teens to mid 20s for much of the region. NYC Metro expected to have lows more in the upper 20s. Wind chill minima in the single digits to lower teens.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Tuesday will have gusty westerly flow and much colder. Highs struggle to reach freezing. Gusts near 30 mph for most locations. Wind chill maxima upper teens to lower 20s. Tight pressure gradient between low pressure in the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure west of the Great Lakes. Another cold front will be approaching from the west. This front will move across late in the day. There will be an increase in clouds and a slight chance of snow showers. This is shown by various mesoscale models with their reflectivity fields but at rather low magnitudes. Still expecting overall mainly dry conditions however.

For Tuesday night, behind the cold front, strong high pressure will gradually build in from the west. Clouds decrease but a tight pressure gradient remains between low pressure in vicinity of Canadian Maritimes and high pressure in the Central US, driving a continued gusty northwest flow, gusts up to 30 to 35 mph. Dry and very cold conditions expected. Lows forecast from NBM in upper teens to lower 20s for most locations with corresponding wind chill minima in the single digits for most locations. NYC Metro has lows more in the low to mid 20s with wind chill minima around 10.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Mainly dry with high pressure building in Wednesday as a surface trough moves through. Meanwhile, a cutoff upper low and associated trough pushes east. No precipitation is expected with the surface trough, just a reinforcing shot of cold air.
Temperatures through Thursday will be below normal, ranging from the upper 20s to just above freezing for high temperatures.
Additionally, as the surface low associated with the upper low deepens offshore and the incoming high also strengthens, conditions will be blustery, mainly for Wednesday. NW winds of 10 to around 15 mph are expected, with gusts 20-30 mph. Combined with the wind, temperatures will feel like the teens and 20s during the day on Wednesday, and it will feel slightly warmer for Thursday as the wind diminish.

Deep layered riding aloft late Thursday night into Friday morning out ahead of an approaching frontal system from central Canada. This deep layered ridging aids in the dissipation of the frontal system for Friday, with dry conditions continuing. A SW flow Thursday night into Friday morning will allow temperatures to warm to near seasonable levels.

The next chance for widespread precipitation comes next weekend as another more cold front impacts the region and moves through Saturday night. A weak area of low pressure may form along the frontal boundary to the south of the region on Sunday night and track northeast, passing south and east of Long Island late Sunday night into Monday. As is typically the case, there are timing and placement issues with any features, so stuck close to NBM.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A cold front passes offshore early this evening. High pressure then builds to the west through Tuesday. A weak trough passes through the area Tuesday afternoon.

VFR. Snow showers are possible at KSWF and KHPN Tuesday afternoon, and conditions may briefly become MVFR. There is a lower chance of a snow shower at KTEB.

Winds will generally be westerly 270 to 290 through the forecast, sustained at around 15kt, with gusts tonight 20-25kt.
Sustained winds and gusts increase during the day Tuesday, with gusts to near 30kt.

90 true. Speeds will increase thru the eve, especially aft becoming NW. Gusts around 30kt likely on Tue.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.


OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday night - Wednesday: VFR. NW winds 15G25kt.

Wednesday night: VFR. NW winds G20kt in the evening.

Thursday - Friday: VFR.

Saturday: VFR, becoming MVFR with rain showers likely.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A cold front moves across this evening. Cold air advection will allow for frequent gusts tonight through Tuesday. Pressure gradient tightens between low pressure well north of the waters and high pressure well southwest of the waters. BUFKIT shows well mixed boundary layer on all the waters.

SCA already in effect across the ocean and is in effect through the day Tuesday. Non-ocean zones have SCA go into effect starting 6pm this evening and those continue through the day Tuesday.

SCA conditions are likely to continue Tuesday night through Wednesday for all forecast waters. Ocean seas during this time are forecast to be near 5 to 7 ft. Gales will even be possible for some time on the ocean Tuesday night. With some upper mixed layer gusts possible to near 40 kt, did hoist a gale watch for the ocean waters Tuesday night. Feel more confident about 35 kt gusts on the ocean Tuesday night. SCA continues for the non- ocean waters Tuesday night.

Strong pressure gradient over the waters will likely allow SCAs to continue over all waters through much of Wednesday. Non-ocean waters may wind gusts fall below 25 kt by sunset Wednesday night and ocean waters a few hours later. Marginal wind gusts are possible Thursday afternoon on the ocean waters.

Waves of 4 to 7 ft on the ocean and 3 to 5 ft on the sound diminish Wednesday, falling below 5 ft over all ocean waters by Wednesday night.

Waves build once again the ocean to above 5 ft Thursday afternoon into Thursday night and diminish to below SCA levels on Friday.

HYDROLOGY
Mainly dry conditions, precipitation under a tenth of an inch, through Tuesday night.

No hydrologic impacts expected into the beginning of next weekend.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through late Tuesday night for ANZ350-353-355.