Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sea Cliff, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:28PM Friday December 13, 2019 8:07 AM EST (13:07 UTC) Moonrise 6:57PMMoonset 9:28AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 619 Am Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Today..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of rain late this morning. Chance of rain this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Areas of fog in the morning. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain, snow and sleet likely in the evening, then rain likely after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Tue..NE winds around 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Tue night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 619 Am Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure continues to move father offshore this morning. Meanwhile, deepening low pressure approaches from the south and passes through the area Saturday. The low lifts up into the canadian maritimes Sunday as high pressure builds through Monday. Another low pressure system impacts the waters Monday night into Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sea Cliff, NY
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location: 40.86, -73.66     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 131150 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 650 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure continues to move farther offshore today as deepening low pressure approaches from the south. The low will move through the region tonight and Saturday, moving to the north Saturday night. The low lifts up into the Canadian Maritimes Sunday as high pressure builds through Monday. Another low pressure system impacts the area Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure then builds for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Forecast on track this morning. Biggest challenge through the morning will be capturing the rising temperatures as well as how long the cold air hangs on across the interior. Timing of the rising temperatures will affect precipitation types across the interior. If the high holds longer, and keeps the cold air in place, a longer period of light freezing rain, and maybe snow will be possible inland.

Weak upper ridging across the northeast moves offshore this morning as a full amplitude tough slowly moves east. A southerly stream shortwave will deepen the trough into tonight. Meanwhile a surface low developing across the northern Gulf of Mexico will move into the southeastern states. A developing coastal front, and an extended trough along the coast, will provide enough lift this morning for the development of light precipitation. Currently have slight chance probabilities with the wintry precipitation inland. Will hold off likely probabilities until later when the high retreats and the coastal front become more developed.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/. Both an upper level jet and low level jet move through the region, mainly across the eastern forecast area late tonight. The atmospheric column will be fully saturated tonight when the beast lift and forcing occurs. Periods of moderate to heavy rain will be possible, mainly 06z to 12Z Saturday, and across eastern Long Island, and southeastern Connecticut. With the forcing and surface destabilization, a rumble of thunder is a possibility, and this may be just offshore of eastern Long Island. With the isolated nature, and brief timing, will not include in the forecast at this time.

By Saturday morning the upper trough becomes negative and the surface low lifts to the north of the region. This is a little quicker than the previous, and precipitation will be winding down during the day as a dry slot moves into the western and southern areas.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. Low pressure that impacts the region Friday night into Saturday lifts north through New England Saturday night and then into the Canadian Maritimes on Sunday. Large scale forcing for ascent decreases significantly Saturday evening as the surface low lifts north and the middle and upper trough axis swings across the region. This will lead to mainly dry conditions returning Saturday night. The pressure gradient steepens however as the low lifts through New England. Westerly winds will increase through the night with gusts 20-30 mph, highest near the coast. The low will continue to deepen as it moves into the Canadian Maritimes on Sunday with high pressure building to the west. The gusty westerly winds will only increase further on Sunday with the steepening pressure gradient. Gusts 25 to 35 mph are likely with possibly a few peak gusts close to 40 mph near the coast. Temperatures will only slowly fall Saturday night into the upper 30s and lower 40s and then slightly rise into the middle and upper 40s during the day Sunday.

Upper low and trough lift away from New England Sunday night with height rises and surface high pressure building across the region. The coldest portion of the airmass resides across southeast Canada and northern New England, so do not anticipate any significant cold temperatures Sunday night. Lows should range from the 20s inland to the lower 30s near the coast.

The next system will approach quickly on Monday as it gathers moisture ahead of a digging upper trough across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. Warm advection and moisture being transported north ahead of the system will increase clouds through the day. The core of the surface high shifts south over the Western Atlantic, but the models indicate a ridge axis hanging on across New England. High temperatures on Monday will be in the middle and upper 30s. The daytime hours should be mostly dry, but light precipitation may be developing just to our southwest as thermal forcing and a warm front approach.

Precipitation should overspread the region from south to north Monday night. The precipitation will continue early Tuesday morning before ending in the afternoon. The main question will be determining PTYPE, especially away from the coast. There is still a good deal of spread with the model solutions on the timing of the retreating cold air ahead of the low as well as the exact track of the low. The lingering colder air ahead of the low should be enough to create a wintry mix at the onset Monday night for much of the region. The middle levels are likely to warm significantly as the low and warm front approach through the night. This should change precip to mostly liquid form by early Tuesday morning. Further inland, the depth of the boundary layer cold air and warm advection aloft will determine how much snow/sleet and/or freezing rain occurs. The GFS and ECMWF as well as many of their ensemble members depict the low tracking over the region early Tuesday morning. This solution is favored given the synoptic pattern. However, if the low does track further south, then the wintry mix could last a bit longer closer to the coast. Plain rain is expected for much of the region by middle morning Tuesday. The low slides east of the area by Tuesday afternoon bringing an end to the precipitation. Temperatures warm into the lower and middle 40s in the afternoon.

A deep upper trough swings across the eastern states Tuesday night into Wednesday and then offshore on Thursday. This will bring in a much colder airmass with temperatures in the 30s during the day and teens and 20s at night. Despite the trough passage, dry conditions are forecast on Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. High pressure will continue to retreat offshore this morning, while an area of low pressure works up the eastern seaboard today into tonight.

SCT MVFR ceilings are expected to become BKN across city terminals through the mid to late morning. To the east, VFR conditions may hold on through early afternoon.

Note if light precip develops this morning, there could be a light wintry mix for KHPN and KSWF but probabilities for this are too low so this is not in TAFs.

High confidence in conditions further deteriorating to MVFR and then IFR with increasing chances of rain from late this afternoon into this evening. IFR/LIFR likely tonight in moderate to heavy rain and stratus/fog.

Light NE winds this morning, should gradually veer to E/SE for coastal terminals this morning, before backing to E/NE late this afternoon and increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt at in the afternoon/evening. For terminals west of the Hudson River, winds may remain N/NE through much of the day. Winds should veer back to SE/S for most terminals late tonight into Saturday, before a windshift to SW late Saturday. LLWS possible tonight for eastern terminals with SE winds around 50kt at 2kft.

. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments:

Increasing potential for MVFR conds after morning push. Likelihood for IFR conds developing in RA during evening push. E/SE gusts to 20 kt possible this afternoon into evening.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments:

Increasing potential for MVFR conds after morning push. Likelihood for IFR conds developing in RA during evening push. E/NE gusts to 20 kt possible this afternoon into evening.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments:

Increasing potential for MVFR conds through morning push. Likelihood for IFR conds developing in RA during evening push. Winds may remain N/NE through the morning and evening push, generally 10 kt or less.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW . which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments:

Increasing potential for MVFR conds through morning push. Likelihood for IFR conds developing in RA during evening push. Winds may remain N/NE through the morning and evening push, generally 10 kt or less.

KHPN TAF Comments:

Increasing potential for MVFR conds after morning push. Likelihood for IFR conds developing in RA during evening push. E/NE gusts to 20 kt possible this afternoon into evening.

KISP TAF Comments:

Increasing potential for MVFR conds after morning push. Likelihood for IFR conds developing in RA during evening push. E/SE gusts to 20 kt possible this afternoon into evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Saturday. IFR in rain AM, becoming showers in PM. SE/S winds, shifting SW late. LLWS possible early across eastern terminals. Saturday Night. Scattered showers, mainly early. Improving to VFR with W winds increasing to 15-20ktG25-30kt. Sunday. VFR. West winds 15-20ktG25-35kt. Sunday night-Monday. VFR. W wind gusts to 20 kt Sunday night. Monday night-Tuesday. MVFR to IFR possible. Chance of snow for inland terminals changing to a wintry mix and then to rain. Chance of mainly rain for coastal terminals, with a period of snow or a wintry mix at the start early Monday night.

MARINE. Southeasterly winds will be increasing later this morning into this afternoon. Wind gusts will be minimal, however, by mid to late afternoon gusts on the ocean waters may be near 25 kt, as low pressure to the south of the waters begins to deepen and high pressure remains to the east. The strong and gusty winds will remain on the ocean waters through tonight. As the low moves across the waters during Saturday winds will likely diminish below SCA levels, however, ocean seas will remain elevated. So, the small craft advisory remains beginning this afternoon, however, the advisory was extended through Saturday. For the non ocean waters conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels. However, for a few hours tonight gusts on the eastern Long Island bays may be near 25 kt.

A steepening pressure gradient behind departing low pressure and building high pressure Saturday night into Sunday should bring SCA conditions on the non-ocean waters and gales to the ocean. There is enough confidence in the gale force winds during this time for the issuance of a gale watch. Ocean seas will remain elevated during this time as well. SCA winds are likely to continue on all waters Sunday night, with seas gradually subsiding. Winds diminish on Monday with high pressure settling over the waters. Seas will also fall below 5 ft. These conditions will be short-lived as the next low pressure approaches Monday night and moves across the waters Tuesday. SCA conditions are likely on the ocean waters on Tuesday. At this time, it looks like winds will stay below 25 kt on the non-ocean waters.

HYDROLOGY. One to two inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts, are likely today through Saturday. The highest amounts are expected across eastern Long Island and portions of southeastern Connecticut. Minor nuisance flooding will be possible, especially tonight when the bulk of the rain falls.

Another low pressure moves across the region Monday night into Tuesday. No hydrologic impacts are anticipated at this time.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. There is increasing potential for minor coastal flooding with the high tide cycle during Saturday morning (departures of 1 to 2 ft are needed to reach minor benchmarks). This will be due to onshore winds with an approaching storm combined with relatively high astronomical tides due to a nearly full moon.

There is a bit of uncertainty on timing of windshift from SE to SW Saturday morning, which is reflected in a sizable spread of Stevens ensemble. Forecast below is based on a blend of ETSS, ESTOFS and approximately a 75th percentile Stevens forecast.

Minor coastal flooding is expected along the south shore bays of Nassau and Queens counties, as well as along the coast of SW CT and S Westchester due to a combo of water levels around minor flood levels and some wave actions. Localized minor flooding is likely along the most vulnerable locales of lower NY Harbor, eastern bays and north shore of LI, and along SE CT.

Along the Atlantic Ocean beach front breaking surf of 8 to 13 ft (highest eastern LI) will cause significant beach flooding and erosion during the times of high tide Saturday into Saturday Night. Scattered areas of dune erosion and localized washovers are possible during the times of high tide Saturday morning into afternoon.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Coastal Flood Advisory from noon to 3 PM EST Saturday for CTZ009-010. NY . Coastal Flood Advisory from noon to 3 PM EST Saturday for NYZ071. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to noon EST Saturday for NYZ178-179. NJ . None. MARINE . Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon for ANZ350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST Saturday for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . DS/19 NEAR TERM . DS/19 SHORT TERM . 19 LONG TERM . DS AVIATION . NV MARINE . DS/19 HYDROLOGY . 19 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44022 - Execution Rocks 4 mi38 min NE 9.7 G 12 39°F 32°F37°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 7 mi50 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 35°F 43°F1031.7 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 8 mi48 min ENE 9.7 G 14 38°F 1 ft35°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 22 mi50 min 41°F 45°F1030.8 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 26 mi56 min WNW 2.9 G 2.9 35°F 1030.7 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 30 mi50 min 34°F 44°F1031 hPa
MHRN6 31 mi56 min N 5.1 G 5.1
44069 32 mi68 min ESE 12 G 14 44°F 38°F37°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 33 mi62 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 33°F 44°F1031.4 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 33 mi50 min SE 8 G 11 46°F 43°F1030.8 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 34 mi28 min SE 14 G 18 49°F 1030.1 hPa42°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 49 mi50 min NE 2.9 G 5.1 29°F 42°F1031.6 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY13 mi17 minENE 610.00 miOvercast38°F30°F73%1030.5 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY15 mi17 minNNE 410.00 miOvercast38°F32°F79%1031 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY16 mi15 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy38°F30°F76%1030.7 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY16 mi72 minE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy32°F28°F85%1031.4 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY17 mi17 minENE 410.00 miOvercast38°F30°F73%1030.4 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ21 mi17 minN 610.00 miOvercast33°F28°F82%1030.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLGA

Wind History from LGA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9N9N11N6N4E45E7S6S5S6S7S5SE4SE3SE3NE5NE5NE6NE6E7NE4NE6NE6
1 day agoN6N3N7N5N3W5W17
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W12NW11N8N7N12NW14NW17
2 days agoSW10SW12
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NW14NW12NW10NW13NW10N5N4NE10NE6

Tide / Current Tables for Glen Cove, Hempstead Harbor, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:16 AM EST     -0.74 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:53 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:35 AM EST     0.99 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:27 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 09:01 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:38 PM EST     -0.73 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:11 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:57 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:58 PM EST     1.01 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 09:23 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.7-0.300.20.50.90.90.50-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.10.20.40.710.70.2-0.2-0.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.