Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Oyster Bay, NY

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:36AMSunset 8:24PM Thursday July 18, 2019 5:23 PM EDT (21:23 UTC) Moonrise 9:46PMMoonset 7:04AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 353 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft this evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers early this evening, then slight chance of showers late this evening and early morning.
Fri..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Tue night..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 353 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak cold front sags slowly south of the waters through tonight, washing out as it does so. High pressure builds back into the area and will remain centered over the southeastern states into the weekend. A cold front passes through the area Sunday night into Monday, followed by high pressure on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oyster Bay, NY
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location: 40.88, -73.53     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 182054
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
454 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
A weak cold front sags slowly south of the waters through tonight,
washing out as it does so. The area will then come under the
influence of the western extent of the bermuda high through the
weekend. A cold front approaches and moves through Sunday night
into Monday. High pressure returns for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A stalled frontal boundary across long island early this
evening will slowly drop to the south. Prior to that time, weak
warm advection just to the north of the boundary and the front
itself will serve as a focus for scattered showers and possibly
a thunderstorm. Earlier, there were reports of urban and poor
drainage flooding along the ct coast. The heaviest activity has
since worked east of the area.

Airmass is moisture loaded with pw values over 2 inches and
marginal instability. Wind shear is weak, so the main threat
will be brief heavy downpours and localized urban and poor
drainage flooding. A few showers may linger through the
overnight due to weak lift as a frontal passes just south of
the area and weak mid level shortwaves traverse the southern
edge of the westerlies.

It will be a warm, humid night with readings ranging from the
mid and upper 60s inland, to the lower and mid 70s across the
nyc metro. There is some hint of cooler temperatures working in
on the a light N NE flow overnight behind the front and wave.

These readings are near 5 degrees above normal.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
Forecast area will reside at the southern edge of the westerlies
with the potential for record warmth as we head into the
weekend. This will be the start of a heat wave for the region
following the cloud cover and showers that tempered the
temperatures on Thursday.

Deep-layered W flow and the westward expansion of the subtropical
high along the east coast will combine to keep the airmass very
humid with dew points into the lower and middle 70s on Friday.

This combined with highs in the lower and middle 90s from nyc
and points north and west will produce heat index values around
105 on Friday for the nyc metro, NE nj, and the lower hudson
valley. An excessive heat warning has been issued for these
areas. To the east, a developing onshore flow will keep
temperatures cooler, mainly in the upper 80s to near 90. Still
though, heat index values will range from mid 90s to around 100.

These locations are under a heat advisory. This will begin a
prolonged period of heat hazards for the region.

Additionally, some of the cams are not hinting at late day
convection dropping in from the NW during the late
afternoon early evening hours. High cape, weak shear
environment with lack of a strong trigger lends only to an isolated
mention in the forecast at this time. However, any storm breaking
the cap could be strong to severe with the main threat be
localized damaging winds.

For Friday night, not much relief with temperatures struggling
to get into the 70s. Heat index values overnight may get no
lower than the mid to upper 80s for the nyc metro area.

There is a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches for
Friday.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
The main concern for this period continues to be the high heat and
humidity that is expected to continue Saturday and Sunday thanks to
a bermuda high over the northern atlantic. 850 hpa temperature
anomalies of +2-+3c over the great lakes region will move over the
area through Sunday. 500 hpa heights over 5900 m also noted in
guidance for Saturday, with slightly less values for Sunday. This is
in line with climatology for a widespread heat wave to impact the
forecast area from Friday through Sunday. Much of the guidance
suggests highs well into the the 90s during this time frame, with
dew points well into the 70s.

Highs on Saturday will range form 95 to 100 degrees, with perhaps
isolated areas in northeast new jersey reaching a degree or two
above the century mark. Sunday will be slightly cooler, as heights
lower somewhat, but it will continue to be very hot and humid. There
is also a great deal of uncertainty with the temperatures for Sunday
due to uncertainty in cloud coverage from an approaching cold front
to the west. The ECMWF ensemble has a range of high temperatures
from 89 to 101 for central park.

Regardless, with anomalously high dew points in the middle to upper
70s in some cases, this translates to heat index values of 105 to
just over 110 for much of the forecast area (isolated portions of
northeast new jersey may see heat index values of 115) for Saturday.

Excessive heat watches have been converted to excessive heat
warnings for Saturday. With the potential for widespread heat index
values of 105-110 on Sunday, excessive heat warnings have been
issued for then as well. These temperatures and heat index values
are life threatening, please follow the preparedness precautionary
actions within our excessive heat warning products to prepare for
the upcoming heat.

Of additional concern are nighttime lows Saturday night into Sunday,
as lows are not forecast to dip below 80 in the new york city metro
area, with the lowest forecast heat index values during that time
frame in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

As for precipitation, thermal troughs developing will allow for just
a passing shower or thunderstorm for late Saturday into Saturday
night. An approaching cold front will bring a low end chance for
showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, mainly for new york city
and points north and west. As for now, nothing indicating a
widespread severe event in the long term. Chances increase Sunday
night into Monday, with best chances for rain Monday afternoon as
the cold front remains just off shore. There may be lingering
showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday, mainly for southern portions
of the area. Temperatures will be cooler for Monday thanks to
increase cloudiness and rain, with lower humidity levels. More
seasonable conditions are expected for Tuesday through Thursday with
high pressure in control for the middle of the week.

Aviation 20z Thursday through Tuesday
MVFR to ifr conditions generally prevailing across the area. A
return to ifr lifr conditions expected this evening. Scattered
showers will prevail across the area which may reduced
visibilities at times. A strong cluster of tstms across central
and south new jersey should continue to move east and stay south
of the nyc terminals but will keep a chance of thunderstorms
kjfk kewr kteb with vcts due to impacts to air travel. Showers
end this eve with the front pushing south of long island.

A light, generally less than 10 kt e-ne flow is expected across the
terminals with a coastal sea breeze veering wind to the SE at times
at kjfk.

Winds switch to w-sw near 10 kt around 15z on Friday andVFR is
expected to return. Timing could be of a few hours, especially at
klga where a easterly component to the wind may hang on a few hours
longer.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can
be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 6 mi84 min ENE 12 G 16 73°F 1 ft72°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 10 mi39 min NE 14 G 19 72°F 71°F71°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 13 mi60 min ENE 6 G 11 77°F 68°F1011.9 hPa
44069 27 mi69 min E 7.8 G 9.7 78°F 83°F76°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 27 mi60 min E 7 G 9.9 73°F 71°F1011.9 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 28 mi54 min 81°F 74°F1011 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi54 min NE 7 G 9.9 79°F 1010.8 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 36 mi34 min ESE 5.8 G 7.8 78°F 78°F2 ft1010.6 hPa76°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 37 mi60 min 80°F 77°F1011.3 hPa
MHRN6 37 mi54 min NNE 6 G 7
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 38 mi54 min SE 8 G 11 79°F 78°F1011.2 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 48 mi34 min S 3.9 G 5.8 78°F 76°F3 ft1011.2 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY12 mi31 minENE 610.00 miOvercast79°F73°F85%1011 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY17 mi88 minE 52.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist74°F73°F97%1011.5 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY20 mi33 minSSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F77°F82%1011.2 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY20 mi33 minNNE 1010.00 miOvercast76°F71°F85%1011.3 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY23 mi88 minNE 1110.00 miOvercast79°F75°F88%1011.6 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY24 mi33 minVar 510.00 miOvercast78°F73°F85%1011.6 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW11SW9SW73N9W9CalmCalmSE3S7SW8SW4S3CalmCalmCalmS7S7SE4E6NE4NE8SE5NE6
1 day agoSW12SW16SW11SW11SW11SW8SW8SW6SW7SW5SW6SW3SW6SW7SW8SW8S7SW6S9S11S12S11S13SW14
2 days agoSW10SW9S9SW6SW7SW6CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4N6N4N4CalmS46SW5S7
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Tide / Current Tables for Oyster Bay Harbor, Oyster Bay, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:21 AM EDT     -0.70 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:31 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:26 AM EDT     0.97 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:32 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:43 PM EDT     -0.71 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:50 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:50 PM EDT     0.97 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:54 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.5-0.7-0.6-0.3-0.10.10.50.90.90.40.1-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.7-0.5-0.200.30.810.60.2-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.