Oyster Bay, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oyster Bay, NY

June 14, 2024 6:04 PM EDT (22:04 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:20 AM   Sunset 8:28 PM
Moonrise 1:17 PM   Moonset 1:15 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 359 Pm Edt Fri Jun 14 2024

Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne late this evening, then becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 2 seconds. Chance of tstms this evening. Showers. Chance of tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm until early morning.

Sat - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.

Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: N 1 ft at 2 seconds.

Sun - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.

Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.

Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.

Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.

Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.

Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.

Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.

Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 359 Pm Edt Fri Jun 14 2024

Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A cold front will move through the area this evening with high pressure building in from the northwest behind it. High pressure becomes centered over the area Sunday morning and moves offshore by Sunday evening. The high remains in control through late next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oyster Bay, NY
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Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 341 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

A cold front will move through the area this evening with high pressure building in from the northwest behind it. High pressure becomes centered over the area Sunday morning and moves offshore by Sunday evening. The high remains in control through late next week.

Cold front will be pushing through the forecast area into this evening, shifting east of us overnight. The front will initially have SBCAPES of up to around 1500 J/kg in some areas to work with, with residual 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE potential overnight when the mid-level shortwave and upper jet streak dynamics pass through. This support aloft will keep chances of showers and thunderstorms ongoing into the late night hours.

Severe thunderstorms remain possible into this evening with the threat of high wind gusts with 30-40kt 0-6km bulk shear as well as inverted-v low level profiles and DCAPES perhaps approaching 700 J/kg. Large hail will remain a threat as well with -10 to -30C potentially up to around 500 J/kg. A slightly backed profile aloft will however mitigate the hail threat somewhat.

Tall/skinny CAPE will be present with PWATs expected to to climb up to around 1.6 inches promote a flooding threat, but the fairly progressive motion of storm cells should offset this a bit. But looking at recent rainfall rates and the orientation of an area of rain over central PA, there is some concern for a flash flooding threat towards sundown for typically more susceptible areas of NE NJ and maybe even NYC as well. See the hydrology section for more details.

Rain threat should be done by daybreak, with low temperatures mostly in the 60s.

High pressure builds in for the weekend with dry and less muggy conditions as dewpoints fall to around 50. Both days look to feature mostly sunny conditions, with some cumulus development on Saturday and perhaps some cirrus streaming by on Sunday. Highs mostly around 80 on Saturday, with slightly cooler conditions on Sunday for coastal areas as winds shift onshore.

The key point for the long term is that there is increasing confidence in a prolonged heat wave in the middle to late next week with heat indices approaching or exceeding 100F at times Tuesday through Friday.

Ongoing deep-layered ridging on Monday continues into at least Wednesday. Models show slight flattening of the ridge aloft with maybe a weak surface trough setting up for both Thursday and Friday.
Will continue to advertise dry weather through at least Thursday given the subsidence/capping working against whatever CAPE may manage to build up to. Slight chance/chance PoPs for Friday as per NBM. Still too early to have any confidence in any over-the-ridge convection spilling over into the forecast area for any of the days in the long term.

Based on global deterministic and ensemble guidance, best guess for 850mb temps for Monday are 16-17C, approaching 20C on Tuesday, then 20-21C Wednesday through Friday. After high temperatures of mostly 85-90 on Monday, highs mostly in the middle and upper 90s are expected away from the coast Tuesday through Friday. Although it's too soon to have high confidence in detailed heat indices during this period, at least advisory criteria would likely be met for a good portion of the forecast area starting on Tuesday given the current forecast. So far, models aren't indicating a very dry boundary layer each afternoon or west to NW surface winds, so these two factors would limit daytime mixing out of surface dewpoints.

Given the potential duration of the heat, it'll be important to take precautions to protect one's health, particularly those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Some heat-sensitive industries and infrastructure will likely be impacted by the extent of this heat as well.

A pre frontal trough was moving into the lower Hudson Valley and into northeastern New Jersey at 17Z with showers and an isolated thunderstorm possible. A cold front will follow late this afternoon through late tonight.

VFR expected outside of any showers and thunderstorms when MVFR conditions are expected, with brief IFR possible in stronger thunderstorms. Timing of the thunderstorms continues to trend slightly later, with thunderstorms in the NYC metro area 21Z to 01Z, and to the east 23Z to 03Z. Stronger storms, with gusty winds and small hail possible, will be more likely across the lower Hudson Valley into northeastern New Jersey, and the NYC terminals. A few showers will remain possible in the vicinity of, and post frontal into late tonight.

S to SW winds ahead of the cold front may briefly become light and variable in the vicinity of the pre frontal trough. Post cold front winds shift to NW to N and become gusty. Overnight gusts may be more occasional.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Showers were moving across the terminals, with an isolated thunderstorm possible, through 20Z.

More organized thunderstorms will become likely late afternoon into this evening 22Z to 01Z. Timing has trended slightly later, and that trend may continue. A stronger storm remains possible with gusts up to 40kt and small hail possible.


Saturday afternoon through Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

A southerly flow will occasionally gust up to 25kt this afternoon on the ocean waters, otherwise, sub-advisory conditions outside of any thunderstorms, which may be strong to severe.

For the weekend through Monday, sub-advisory conditions prevail.
There may be a chance of a few S-SW gusts to 25kt and seas approaching 5 ft each afternoon/early evening for Mon-Wed on the ocean west of Fire Island inlet. SCAs probably won't be needed for each day.

The entire area remains in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall.
Expecting mostly minor urban poor drainage flooding, but localized flash flooding cannot be ruled out, particularly for parts of NE NJ and possibly NYC a well. Although rain will be heavy at times, the progressive nature of the thunderstorms is expected to keep flooding more minor in nature, however the orientation of the rainfall may promote the chance of flash flooding.
Average storm total rainfall amounts will be between half an inch and 1.50 inches, with pockets of 2-plus inches possible.

There is a high risk for rip current development along Atlantic facing beaches today with southerly flow 15 to 20 kt along the shoreline and surf up to 4 ft expected.

Conditions begin to improve by Saturday, with a moderate risk forecast as winds shift offshore.

NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 13 mi47 minSSE 11G12 72°F 63°F29.83
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 27 mi47 min0G1.9 75°F 64°F29.77
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 28 mi47 min 80°F 67°F29.76
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi47 minS 9.9G9.9 75°F 29.81
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 37 mi35 minS 12G14 69°F 67°F29.8266°F
MHRN6 37 mi47 minSSE 7G9.9
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 38 mi47 minSSE 8G8.9 77°F 71°F29.82
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 43 mi47 minSW 1G2.9 73°F 66°F29.83
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 47 mi35 minSSW 12G14 70°F 67°F29.8567°F

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KFRG REPUBLIC,NY 12 sm71 minS 1010 smClear75°F66°F74%29.84
KHPN WESTCHESTER COUNTY,NY 16 sm68 minE 0710 smMostly Cloudy79°F66°F65%29.83
KLGA LAGUARDIA,NY 19 sm73 minSSE 0910 smMostly Cloudy79°F64°F61%29.81
KJFK JOHN F KENNEDY INTL,NY 21 sm73 minS 11G1810 smMostly Cloudy75°F66°F74%29.83
KISP LONG ISLAND MAC ARTHUR,NY 23 sm68 minS 1010 smMostly Cloudy73°F66°F78%29.83
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Wind History graph: FRG
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Tide / Current for Oyster Bay Harbor, Oyster Bay, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Oyster Bay Harbor, Oyster Bay, New York, Tide feet

Tide / Current for Throg,s Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Throg,s Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast   

Upton, NY,

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