Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mill Neck, NY
November 3, 2024 7:20 AM EST (12:20 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:26 AM Sunset 4:49 PM Moonrise 9:44 AM Moonset 6:42 PM |
ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 529 Am Est Sun Nov 3 2024
Today - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: ne 1 ft at 2 seconds.
Tonight - NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 2 seconds.
Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu - NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 529 Am Est Sun Nov 3 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure remains over the region into Monday, moving off the new england late Monday, then remaining offshore Tuesday. A warm front will pass to the north Monday night into Tuesday. A cold front slowly approached on Wednesday and moves through sometime Wednesday evening. The front may stall south of the area as high pressure builds in to end the week.
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Area Discussion for New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 031126 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 626 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains over the region into Monday, moving off the New England late Monday, then remaining offshore Tuesday. A warm front will pass to the north Monday night into Tuesday. A cold front slowly approached on Wednesday and moves through sometime Wednesday evening. The front may stall south of the area as high pressure builds in to end the week. Another cold front may pass through the area Friday night or Saturday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
High pressure remains over the region, centered over southeastern Canada into western upstate New York at 10Z. Winds have remained light northerly through the night, and temperatures have not fallen as forecast, and the airmass remains rather dry. With frost formation no longer expected the Frost Advisory for this morning has been cancelled.
With high pressure building into the region dry weather continues with nearly clear skies, with perhaps a few thin high clouds at times. The high remains over the area into tonight with near seasonal temperatures. Tonight temperatures will once again fall into the mid and upper 30s across coastal Connecticut and Suffolk county, despite weak warm advection setting up late at night. Frost formation will be possible tonight as winds become light, and the flow becomes easterly, raising dew points into the lower 30s. However, higher thin clouds will be moving in and temperatures may not be as low as currently forecast.
With the uncertainty of frost development tonight will not issue an advisory at this time.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The surface high beginning to move off the New England coast late Monday and then becomes nearly stationary off the coast into Tuesday. Warm advection increases Monday into Monday night with a light southerly flow. Monday's highs will be just above seasonal normals, and lows Monday night will be nearly 10 degrees above normal as a warm front passes to the north. With an increased return flow, and a warm front well to the north, temperatures Tuesday will be 10 to nearly 15 degrees above normal.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Key Points:
* Unseasonable warmth continues on Wednesday with the potential for near record to record high max temperatures.
* Cooling trend Thursday through Saturday with mainly dry conditions.
The upper level ridge axis will be east of the area at the start of Tuesday night as a flattening shortwave approaches from the north and west. An associated surface low will pass well to our north, but drag a cold front through the area likely sometime Wednesday evening. Deep SW/W flow ahead of the front should allow for temperatures to peak in the upper 70s to low 80s. These temperatures would be record or near record highs for 11/6.
Only slight chance PoPs with the passing of the front. There is potential for the front to stall near the area. The Canadian was the most aggressive with this 24 hours ago, but has trended towards a drier solution like the GFS and ECMWF.
High pressure builds in to end the week, with the potential for another cold frontal passage Friday night or Saturday. A cooling trend is expected Thursday through Saturday, however, highs through this time will likely remain above normal for early November.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure builds in today and shifts offshore early Monday.
VFR through the TAF period.
Northerly winds largely remain under 10 kt today. Winds start to veer this evening and by Monday morning will be southeasterly.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments are expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. S-SW winds G20kt.
Thursday: Mainly VFR with slight chance of showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
No changes to the winds and seas with this update.
Under high pressure, winds and seas remain below SCA criteria through Tuesday. SW winds pick up ahead of a cold front Tuesday night. At this time, 20-25 kt gusts are possible on all waters, with wave heights on the ocean waters likely increasing to 5-7 ft. Conditions start to improve Wednesday night and sub- SCA conditions are expected thereafter.
FIRE WEATHER
Despite weaker winds, the persistent dry weather pattern will continue under high pressure today leading to lingering fire weather concerns.
HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through the first half of next weekend.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 626 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains over the region into Monday, moving off the New England late Monday, then remaining offshore Tuesday. A warm front will pass to the north Monday night into Tuesday. A cold front slowly approached on Wednesday and moves through sometime Wednesday evening. The front may stall south of the area as high pressure builds in to end the week. Another cold front may pass through the area Friday night or Saturday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
High pressure remains over the region, centered over southeastern Canada into western upstate New York at 10Z. Winds have remained light northerly through the night, and temperatures have not fallen as forecast, and the airmass remains rather dry. With frost formation no longer expected the Frost Advisory for this morning has been cancelled.
With high pressure building into the region dry weather continues with nearly clear skies, with perhaps a few thin high clouds at times. The high remains over the area into tonight with near seasonal temperatures. Tonight temperatures will once again fall into the mid and upper 30s across coastal Connecticut and Suffolk county, despite weak warm advection setting up late at night. Frost formation will be possible tonight as winds become light, and the flow becomes easterly, raising dew points into the lower 30s. However, higher thin clouds will be moving in and temperatures may not be as low as currently forecast.
With the uncertainty of frost development tonight will not issue an advisory at this time.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The surface high beginning to move off the New England coast late Monday and then becomes nearly stationary off the coast into Tuesday. Warm advection increases Monday into Monday night with a light southerly flow. Monday's highs will be just above seasonal normals, and lows Monday night will be nearly 10 degrees above normal as a warm front passes to the north. With an increased return flow, and a warm front well to the north, temperatures Tuesday will be 10 to nearly 15 degrees above normal.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Key Points:
* Unseasonable warmth continues on Wednesday with the potential for near record to record high max temperatures.
* Cooling trend Thursday through Saturday with mainly dry conditions.
The upper level ridge axis will be east of the area at the start of Tuesday night as a flattening shortwave approaches from the north and west. An associated surface low will pass well to our north, but drag a cold front through the area likely sometime Wednesday evening. Deep SW/W flow ahead of the front should allow for temperatures to peak in the upper 70s to low 80s. These temperatures would be record or near record highs for 11/6.
Only slight chance PoPs with the passing of the front. There is potential for the front to stall near the area. The Canadian was the most aggressive with this 24 hours ago, but has trended towards a drier solution like the GFS and ECMWF.
High pressure builds in to end the week, with the potential for another cold frontal passage Friday night or Saturday. A cooling trend is expected Thursday through Saturday, however, highs through this time will likely remain above normal for early November.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure builds in today and shifts offshore early Monday.
VFR through the TAF period.
Northerly winds largely remain under 10 kt today. Winds start to veer this evening and by Monday morning will be southeasterly.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments are expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: VFR.
Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. S-SW winds G20kt.
Thursday: Mainly VFR with slight chance of showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
No changes to the winds and seas with this update.
Under high pressure, winds and seas remain below SCA criteria through Tuesday. SW winds pick up ahead of a cold front Tuesday night. At this time, 20-25 kt gusts are possible on all waters, with wave heights on the ocean waters likely increasing to 5-7 ft. Conditions start to improve Wednesday night and sub- SCA conditions are expected thereafter.
FIRE WEATHER
Despite weaker winds, the persistent dry weather pattern will continue under high pressure today leading to lingering fire weather concerns.
HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through the first half of next weekend.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY | 13 mi | 63 min | NNE 8.9G | 58°F | 30.48 | |||
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY | 28 mi | 63 min | 61°F | 30.41 | ||||
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT | 28 mi | 63 min | N 5.1G | 65°F | 30.41 | |||
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ | 32 mi | 63 min | N 8.9G | 30.46 | ||||
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor | 37 mi | 41 min | NNE 18G | 46°F | 61°F | 30.46 | 35°F | |
MHRN6 | 37 mi | 63 min | N 8.9G | |||||
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ | 38 mi | 63 min | NNE 9.9G | 58°F | 30.48 | |||
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT | 44 mi | 63 min | NNE 9.9G | 58°F | 30.46 | |||
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY | 48 mi | 51 min | NNE 16G | 48°F | 30.44 | 41°F |
Wind History for Kings Point, NY
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KFRG REPUBLIC,NY | 13 sm | 27 min | N 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 41°F | 30°F | 65% | 30.47 | |
KHPN WESTCHESTER COUNTY,NY | 15 sm | 24 min | N 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 37°F | 27°F | 65% | 30.46 | |
KLGA LAGUARDIA,NY | 19 sm | 29 min | N 06 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 41°F | 28°F | 61% | 30.48 | |
KJFK JOHN F KENNEDY INTL,NY | 21 sm | 29 min | N 08 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 43°F | 30°F | 61% | 30.48 |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KFRG
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KFRG
Wind History Graph: FRG
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of Northeast
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Upton, NY,
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