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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 339 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.gale warning in effect from 1 pm est this afternoon through Monday afternoon...
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft this afternoon. Chance of rain early this morning, then rain late this morning and afternoon. Isolated tstms this afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain with isolated tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 339 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. A strengthening frontal system approaches the region today and moves across the area tonight into Monday morning as low pressure deepening along it as it tracks into canada. Strong high pressure building to the south on Tuesday will flatten out, allowing a cold front to approach Tuesday night and pass through late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Another strong high will then build from the west for later in the week, then shift off the new england coast Saturday night.

FXUS61 KOKX 100907 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 407 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
A strengthening frontal system approaches the region today and moves across the area tonight into Monday morning as low pressure deepening along it as it tracks into Canada. Strong high pressure building to the south on Tuesday will flatten out, allowing a cold front to approach Tuesday night and pass through late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Another strong high will then build from the west for later in the week, then shift off the New England coast Saturday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
** Confidence increasing for a significant frontal system to impact the region through the near term period.

** Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire CWA.

** High Wind Advisories/Warnings in effect for much of the Coast.

A strong cold front approaches the region today and will pass over the region Sunday night into early Monday morning. In addition, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the front, passing through or nearby the forecast area before rapidly deepening to our NE.

Rain chances increase through the day with the entire forecast area likely seeing rain by the end of the afternoon. The rain is expected to become moderate to locally heavy at times as early as the afternoon as per latest CAM reflectivity. The best chances for the moderate to locally heavy rain is expected tonight. The heavy rain potential comes from a developing strong low level jet combining with deep synoptic lift aloft and an anomalously moist air mass.
Some models continue to show some elevated instability, so with deep lift, will keep in an isolated thunderstorm in the forecast. Models continue to favor eastern areas for the higher total rain amounts, as the llj will be stronger here, and forcing/convergence near the deepening low center will be passing through or nearby. Further enhancement may occur in parts of CT due to speed convergence on a southerly flow. Latest 00z Hi-res guidance seems to be picking up on this potential, with HRRR values now forecasting the potential for as much as 5-7 inches possible across portions of SE CT. The flood watch remains up for the entire CWA and has been extended to include much of Monday morning and early afternoon. See the hydrology section below for more details.

A high wind warning has been issued for Suffolk County. A wind advisory is also been issued for Brooklyn, Queens, and Nassau County in NY. A wind advisory remains in effect for coastal sections of New Haven, Middlesex and New London in CT.

For several days now, forecast guidance has been progging 925mb winds reaching 60-80 kt east of NYC tonight. Even by late afternoon, they're progged at 50-60 kt. There will be a low level inversion, but not particularly strong. Especially with the threat of convectively enhanced downpours and models showing 50-60kt winds below the inversion at 1000 ft, there is an increased threat of seeing wind gusts reaching high wind warning thresholds in some areas. For now, thinking the place with the best chance to meet high wind warnings will be across Suffolk county. While portions of NYC/Nassau County and part of the CT coast, could see an isolated gusts to warning or come close to it, felt it was best to keep them in a Wind Advisory. All the forecast guidance is indicating a fairly sharp cut off with respect to the strongest winds occur. Can nor rule out the day shift potentially having to adjust the headlines a bit based on the newer forecast data that comes in during the day. The combination of a saturated ground and strong gusty winds, would expect some wind damage across the advisory and warning locations.

The front moves east of the area between 12-15z Monday morning.
While some drier conditions are expected, rain chances don't completely come to an end as the flow aloft remains cyclonic and we'll be within the right entrance region of an upper jet streak.
Cold air wraps in behind the front, and may cause a mix of rain and snow well NW of the city in the morning. Little to no snow accumulation expected. Remaining breezy through the day as we dry out for the afternoon. Highs generally in the 40s.



SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/
Mainly dry conditions expected Monday night as high pressure continues to gradually build into the region. The gradient will continue to gradually weaken, but remain tight enough for at least some gusty conditions possible through the first half of the night.
Lows will fall into the middle and upper 20s to lower 30s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
No changes to the long term. Followed the NBM closely. The previous discussion follows:

Quasi-zonal flow aloft in the wake of one departing trough on Tue will give way to another northern stream trough on Wednesday, which should drive a cold front through either late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Confluent mid level flow after this trough passage, followed by ridging aloft Fri-Sat, will then maintain strong sfc high pressure over the area, with perhaps a weak intervening cold frontal passage Friday night. A storm system to the west should hold off until just after the forecast period, with some increase in high/mid cloud cover Sat into Sat night.

Forecast follows the NBM for the most part given close enough NWP model guidance agreement during this time frame, with only minor adjustments. Fair wx should prevail through the period, with only slight chance (20%) PoP for next Sunday. Near normal temps Tue- Wed, and a little below normal Wed night-Thu after the cold frontal passage, should moderate to a few degrees above normal Fri-Sat via ridging sfc and aloft.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A strengthening frontal system approaches today and crosses the region tonight.

While the NYC terminals are mainly VFR this AM, MVFR and IFR conditions are expected to overspread the entire area through 12Z.
SHRA chances increase during the mid morning, with IFR/LIFR in +SHRA expected this afternoon and into tonight. Isolated TSRA possible, mainly this afternoon and into tonight. Precipitation may mix with or briefly change over to snow behind the frontal passage late tonight into Monday morning at KSWF.

Light southerly flow this morning will steadily increase through the afternoon, with southerly gusts 35 to 45 kt likely at the coastal terminals for the late afternoon/evening push. Highest gusts for KJFK/KISP/KGON. Peak S wind gusts tonight at KISP/KGON may approach 50kt. The front passes through the terminals overnight into early Monday morning with an abrupt wind shift to the W/NW and gusts maintaining 20-30 kt.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of lowering cigs/visibilities this morning may be off by and hour or two. Isolated TSRA in +SHRA possible this afternoon and evening. LLWS with S winds of 50-60kt at 2kft for coastal terminals in afternoon/evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Late Sunday night: IFR, with +SHRA. Isolated TSRA possible. FROPA to NW winds 15g25kt btwn 03-05z for western terminals and 9-12z for eastern terminals

Monday: MVFR or lower for AM push in RA/SN mix for western terminals. VFR in afternoon. W-WNW winds 20-25G30-40kt.

Tuesday: VFR. SW gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon.

Wednesday: VFR. W to NW gusts 15-25 kt in the afternoon.

Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Gale and storm warnings on the area waters as a strong cold front pushes across the area tonight.

Winds and seas should ramp up quickly today with SCA conditions quickly going to gales by late in the day/early evening. Storm warnings are in effect for the central and eastern ocean zones as well as the south shore bays, Peconic and Garners Bays and the eastern part of Long Island Sound. These locations have the best chances to see wind gusts reach 50 kt, especially from about midnight tonight through early Monday morning. The Storm warnings are up until 11am, however its possible they will be able to be dropped down to a Gale warning earlier. Gales are then expected on all waters through the day Monday and possibly linger into Monday evening. Ocean seas are likely build to 10-16 feet during this time with waves over 5 ft across portions of eastern Long Island Sound.

Longer term, SCA cond expected for the most part. Hazardous ocean seas 5-8 ft Tue AM should subside to 4-6 ft by afternoon, then remain at those levels into at least Wed night. Meanwhile W flow gusting up to 25 kt on all waters Tue night, should shift NW by Wed morning after a cold frontal passage. Gusts could peak at 30 kt on the ocean Wed night. Lingering 25 kt gusts are possible on the ocean and the open Sound waters into daytime Thu.

HYDROLOGY
A flood watch remains in effect for the entire area. Across portions of Long Island and Southern Connecticut, 3 to 5 inches of rainfall is likely, with locally 6+ amounts possible. Elsewhere, 2-4 inches is likely. Most of this rain will fall in a 12 hour period.

As a result, widespread urban and poor drainage flooding is likely, with some areas of more significant flooding possible, including the flooding of some rivers and streams. Heavier downpours will be possible as early afternoon, but impacts are more likely later afternoon into the night. WPC has much of the forecast area in a Slight Risk in their excessive rainfall outlook for today and tonight.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A strong cold front will bring increasing S flow late today into tonight. The system brings potential for minor coastal flooding with the Monday morning high tide cycle. Winds quickly shift to the W-NW late tonight/early Monday morning, which will help keep water levels down during times of high tide. That said, latest Stevens NYHOPS 95th percentile numbers and taking into account wave runup on south facing coastlines suggest some potential for the CT coastline and the forks of Long Island to touch minor thresholds.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Flood Watch from this afternoon through Monday afternoon for CTZ005>012.
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Monday for CTZ010>012.
NY...Flood Watch from this afternoon through Monday afternoon for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST Monday for NYZ075-176>179.
High Wind Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EST Monday for NYZ078>081.
NJ...Flood Watch from this afternoon through Monday afternoon for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ331-335-338-355.
Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EST Monday for ANZ332-340-345-350-353.

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