Mill Neck, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mill Neck, NY

June 14, 2024 7:34 AM EDT (11:34 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:20 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM
Moonrise 1:17 PM   Moonset 1:15 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 536 Am Edt Fri Jun 14 2024

Today - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 2 seconds. Slight chance of showers and tstms early this afternoon. Showers and tstms likely late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this afternoon.

Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers with tstms likely in the evening, then showers likely with chance of tstms after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Sat - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.

Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: N 1 ft at 2 seconds.

Sun - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: ne 1 ft at 2 seconds.

Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.

Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.

Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.

Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.

Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 536 Am Edt Fri Jun 14 2024

Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A cold front will move through the area this evening with high pressure building in from the northwest behind it. High pressure becomes centered over the area Sunday morning and moves offshore by Sunday evening. The high remains in control through late next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mill Neck, NY
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Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 140939 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 539 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will move through the area this evening with high pressure building in from the northwest behind it. High pressure becomes centered over the area Sunday morning and moves offshore by Sunday evening. The high remains in control through late next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The forecast remains on track this morning. A few isolated showers have popped up just south of Long Island, so have continued the slight chance of showers for early this morning.
This activity will likely be confined to Long Island.

High pressure has now shifted well offshore as a cold front approaches from the west. The front is currently over the Great Lakes and approaching western NY as the associated surface low tracks through southeast Canada. Aloft, multiple shortwave troughs are rotating around the broader trough over the northeast US.

We are still on track to potentially see strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The latest SPC outlook remains similar to the previous outlook. NYC north and west are in a slight risk and the rest of the area is in a marginal risk.

Before any potential severe weather, showers will be possible early this morning, mainly across Long Island. This looks to be associated with weak warm advection ahead of a midlevel shortwave. Then, multiple CAMs show some convective activity entering the Lower Hudson Valley by mid morning. This activity looks to spark up north and west of our area associated with a weak shortwave that will pass north of us and a pre-frontal trough. Not too confident in this activity and although thunder is possible, any storms will likely stay below severe limits.

Later this afternoon into the evening is the most likely timing of any severe weather as a stronger shortwave approaches aloft as well as a cold front at the surface. A moist southerly flow will bring dewpoints into the upper 60s by the afternoon and mostly sunny skies will help bring surface temperatures up to the mid to upper 80s for most. This will result in SBCAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg for NYC north and west. 0-6 km shear is expected to max out around 35 to 40 kt, also for NYC north and west. This environment can support severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. While discrete convection cannot be ruled out, the most likely form will be clusters or a broken line. Given the moist environment and skinny CAPE profile, heavy rain is also possible in any showers or thunderstorms. See hydrology section below. It is possible the severe threat becomes limited by any activity that happens earlier in the day and will depend on if/when that occurs and if we can destabilize after that. The severe threat is also lower across eastern areas as the storms will likely weaken as they reach the marine environment as is usual this time of the year.

The area will likely be dry by the early morning hours on Saturday.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
After an active Friday, the weekend is expected to feature plenty of sunshine and quiet weather. High pressure slowly builds in behind the departing cold front as heights rise aloft with an upper level ridge building over the eastern US. The airmass that will build in will be cooler and drier. Dewpoints will be in the 40s and 50s both days, withs highs in the 70s to low 80s. This will give the air a comfortable feel. We could actually drop to the upper 40s at the usual cool spots Saturday night as radiational cooling conditions look ideal.

The center of the high moves offshore by Sunday evening and a return flow sets up.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
**Key Points**

* Increasing confidence in a prolonged heat wave mid to late next week. Heat indices may approach or exceed 100F at times, especially Wednesday through Friday.

* Heat indices greater than 90 are expected as early as Tuesday, gradually expanding and increasing through the end of the week.

Surface high pressure gradually shifts overhead and offshore on late Sunday as a large mid and upper level ridge continues to build over the Eastern CONUS. The surface high pressure positions itself over the Western Atlantic, allowing for a persistent southwest to south flow over the area, advecting both lower level moisture and warm air into the area.

The building ridge amplifies further into the middle to end of the week, allowing for the development of a close to 600dm ridge over the Northeast US and SE Canada. A ridge of this strength for mid- late June over the area would be highly anomalous, though there still remains uncertainty as to how strong it becomes.
Temperatures at 850mb from Tuesday through at least Friday will be 18-21C allowing for surface temperatures to reach into the 90s and possibly approaching 100 degrees toward the end of the week for western portions of the area away from the immediate coastline. Heat indices may be slightly higher given a SW/S flow advecting higher moisture into the area. While details as to the extent of the heat will come into focus as we approach early next week, this will very likely be the first heat wave of the season with heat headlines eventually being needed for at least a portion of the area.

Given the potential duration of the heat, it'll be important to take precautions to protect one's health, particularly those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Some heat-sensitive industries and infrastructure will likely be impacted by the extent of this heat as well.

AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A cold front approaches from the NW today, preceded by a prefrontal trough. Both will make their way through the area late afternoon into the evening hours.

VFR expected through this afternoon. MVFR or lower conditions are likely with any showers and/or thunderstorms today and tonight. Best chance of TSRA 18-22Z Friday at KSWF, 21-01Z across the city terminals, and 22-02Z at the eastern terminals. Heavy rain and gusty winds possible in any TSRA. SHRA continue Friday night through 6Z.
Cigs may drop to MVFR or lower for a period before the Saturday morning push.

Southerly winds 10 kt or less at all terminals overnight. The terminals east of NYC may see gusts return 13-16Z at 15-20kt.
Stronger winds are possible in vicinity of TSRA this afternoon and evening. Wind direction could also become tricky in the afternoon as the pre-frontal trough moves into the area.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A spotty shower is possible at the coastal terminals 09Z-15Z Friday.
Confidence is too low to put in TAF at this time.

The main band of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening could vary by 1-2 hours. There also could be a few random showers and thunderstorms ahead of this main band in the afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday Late Night: MVFR or lower possible showers that may linger into early Saturday morning. N winds behind the cold front may briefly gusts up to 25kt.

Saturday through Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A southerly flow will occasionally gust up to 25 kt this afternoon, otherwise winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA conditions through early next week.

There is potential for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with the possibility of some being strong to severe.

HYDROLOGY
The entire area is now in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall.
Expecting mostly minor urban poor drainage flooding, but localized flash flooding cannot be ruled out. Although rain will be heavy at times, the progressive nature of the thunderstorms is expected to keep flooding more minor. Probabilities of seeing 1 inch in 1 hour remain low. Average storm total rainfall amounts will be between half an inch and 1 inch, with locally higher amounts possible.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There is a high risk for rip current development along Atlantic facing beaches today with southerly flow 15 to 20 kt along the shoreline and surf up to 4 ft expected.

Conditions begin to improve by Saturday, with a moderate risk forecast as winds shift offshore.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 13 mi46 minS 8.9G11 68°F 62°F29.89
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 28 mi46 min 71°F 66°F29.85
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 28 mi46 minSW 6G8 68°F 63°F29.84
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi46 minS 5.1G7 69°F 29.90
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 37 mi24 minSSW 16G18 68°F 67°F29.9165°F
MHRN6 37 mi46 minS 6G8
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 38 mi46 minSW 5.1G7 70°F 71°F29.91
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 44 mi46 minSSW 6G8 68°F 65°F29.90
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 48 mi34 minSSW 16G19 69°F 66°F29.9365°F


Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KFRG REPUBLIC,NY 13 sm41 minSW 1010 smClear70°F63°F78%29.91
KHPN WESTCHESTER COUNTY,NY 15 sm38 minS 0410 smClear68°F61°F78%29.89
KLGA LAGUARDIA,NY 19 sm43 minSSW 0910 smPartly Cloudy72°F59°F65%29.88
KJFK JOHN F KENNEDY INTL,NY 21 sm43 minSSW 0710 smPartly Cloudy70°F63°F78%29.91
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Wind History graph: FRG
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Tide / Current for Bayville Bridge, Oyster Bay, New York
   
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Bayville Bridge, Oyster Bay, New York, Tide feet


Tide / Current for Throg,s Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg,s Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast   
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Upton, NY,




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