Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mill Neck, NY
May 13, 2024 4:25 AM EDT (08:25 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:36 AM Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 10:16 AM Moonset 1:07 AM |
ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 335 Am Edt Mon May 13 2024
Today - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S late. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 2 seconds. Slight chance of showers late.
Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 2 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 2 seconds. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 2 seconds. Rain and slight chance of tstms in the evening, then rain after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night - NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Rain likely, mainly in the evening.
Thu - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 335 Am Edt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - High pressure moves out into the atlantic today into this evening. For tonight into early Tuesday, a warm front moves northeast of the waters. A cold front to the west of the waters slows down and becomes nearly stationary Tuesday through Tuesday night. Low pressure developing west of the waters eventually moves south and then southeast of the waters Wednesday into Wednesday night. Brief high pressure follows for Thursday with another frontal system approaching towards the end of the week.
Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 130800 AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 400 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure moves out into the Atlantic today into this evening.
For tonight into early Tuesday, a warm front moves northeast of the region. A cold front to the west of the region slows down and becomes nearly stationary Tuesday through Tuesday night. Low pressure developing west of the area eventually moves south and then southeast of the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. Brief high pressure follows for Thursday with several disturbances moving through the area from late week through early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The synoptic pattern across the local region conveys mid level ridging today with surface high pressure moving farther out into the Atlantic.
Southerly winds will increase and with veering low level profiles and more sunshine compared to the previous day, a much warmer day is expected compared to the previous day.
However, for eastern and interior sections of the region, more clouds are forecast compared to locations to the west and along the coast to the western parts of the region. Some subtle small amplitude shortwaves could traverse these more interior and eastern parts of the region and will be associated with more clouds.
Taking a look at CAMs for today, the HRRR, HRW NSSL, HRW ARW, HRW FV3, and NAM Nest all indicate within their forecast reflectivity fields isolated to scattered coverage of showers moving across mainly the northern half of the forecast region and also across much of the eastern half of the region for this afternoon through this evening.
The mechanism for convective initiation appears to be a small shortwave embedded within the approaching ridge that moves NW to SE across the forecast region latter half of this afternoon into this evening.
Corresponding to this area of isolated to scattered shower activity from the SREF conveying an area of higher level moisture between 850mb and 500mb along with weak Q vector convergence between these same two vertical levels.
NBM was used for high temperatures noting some substantial warm air advection and the NBM was higher than MOS also.
Mid level ridge axis moves overhead tonight with the ridge then shifting east and farther out into the Atlantic overnight into early Tuesday. An overall strong consensus of negative vorticity advection is shown for the first half of the night, so this will help with subsidence and thereby allow for decreasing clouds.
At the surface, high pressure will continue to move offshore out into the Atlantic. Low level SW flow will continue. Radiational cooling will be partially mitigated along the coastal areas as onshore flow and winds staying up within the boundary layer under the eventually mostly clear sky.
For temperatures, used the NBM for lows tonight.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
More of a SW synoptic flow sets up going into Tuesday with mid level ridge moving farther east of the region and an approaching trough from the west. At the surface, a warm front moves northeast of the region and a trailing cold front will slow down well west of the region. This will keep the local area in the warm sector.
In the mid levels, a trough will continue to approach from the west Tuesday night into early Wednesday and will slow down as it becomes cutoff. The cutoff mid level low slowly traverses south and eventually southeast of Long Island Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Upper level jet streaks move in late Tuesday into Tuesday night.
The main upper level jet thereafter stays well south of the region late Tuesday night through midweek.
Multiple areas of low pressure are expected to form along the front with another frontal system approaching from the south Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The main frontal system to the south with its center of low pressure passes south and eventually southeast of Long Island Wednesday into Wednesday night.
The bulk of the rain is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday with the increase in low level omega as well as some increased divergence aloft. Rain intensity forecast as moderate and also expected the mode of rain will transition from convective to more stratiform. Low pressure moving farther southeast of Long Island late Wednesday night with decreasing POPs for rain. Rain could be heavy at times as layer precipitable waters increase to near 1.1 to 1.4 inches, highest along the coast.
For temperatures, used the NBM for highs Tuesday, and then a combination of NBM and CONSRaw for lows Tuesday night, followed by CONSRaw only for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Wanted to convey lower diurnal range of temperatures Wednesday into Wednesday night and the Wednesday daytime temperatures expected to be well below normal with the more easterly flow.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The area remains under an upper level trough by Thursday morning, though it is slowly making its way east of the area during the day.
Models disagree with the speed at which the trough moves away and thus differ on the extent of the surface low pressure's impact on the area. The GFS and CMC have the low far enough offshore where there shouldn't be much shower activity, though the ECMWF keeps the low closer to the area allowing for continued chance of showers during much of the day Thursday and Thursday night.
By Friday, another large scale trough brings another frontal system into the area from the west. While the day may be mostly dry, showers once again become possible later in the day and into Friday evening. The upper trough moves overhead slowly through the weekend allowing for several frontal waves and areas of low pressure to pass by. This likely continues the chance for rain showers through the weekend and into early next week.
Temperatures will largely be at or slightly below average for the extended period. Each day is expected to feature highs in the upper 60s to low 70s with each night in the 50s.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Weak high pressure builds over the terminals through morning before pushing offshore on today.
Generally VFR. MVFR is possible at KSWF into early morning, with IFR possible at KHPN.
Winds remain light S-SW, to locally light and variable through the early morning with winds becoming southerly and increasing during the afternoon. Gusts 15 to 20kt develop during the afternoon, peaking late in the day. Stronger winds with sea breeze enhancement likely at KJFK.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts in the afternoon may be more occasional. Sustained winds at KJFK may be a few knots higher, especially late in the day.
OUTLOOK FOR 09Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers late. MVFR or lower possible in mainly afternoon showers. S wind gusts 15-20kt near the coast late.
Tuesday night: MVFR or lower in showers. S wind gusts 15-20kt near the coast in the evening.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely in showers. Slight chance of a thunderstorm.
Wednesday night: Chance of showers with improvement to VFR possible.
NE wind gusts 15-20kt.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. NE wind gusts 20 kt possible.
Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Persistent low level inversion will limit gusts across the waters late today into tonight. While most gusts will be in the range of 15 to 20 kt this afternoon into this evening, only localized gusts reach closer to 25 kt over parts of the ocean. The areal coverage of these SCA level gusts is not large enough to warrant the issuance of the SCA.
Conditions remain below SCA thresholds in the short term through Tuesday night. Wind gusts could get close at times to 25 kt over parts of the ocean but most gusts should be mostly limited to 20 kt due to the persistent low level inversion limiting the vertical mixing.
Wind gusts are forecast to remain generally 15-20 kt with more easterly flow developing Wednesday and then pick up Wednesday night with winds increasing and becoming more northerly. SCA wind gusts will be possible Wednesday night especially on the ocean. From prolonged onshore flow and fetch, ocean seas are forecast to build to SCA levels Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Throughout the entire short term, non-ocean waters are expected to remain at sub-SCA conditions.
Looking at the long term marine forecast period from Thursday into the start of the weekend, lingering SCA waves on the ocean subside by Friday with sub-SCA conditions on all waters through Saturday.
HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic problems expected.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 400 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure moves out into the Atlantic today into this evening.
For tonight into early Tuesday, a warm front moves northeast of the region. A cold front to the west of the region slows down and becomes nearly stationary Tuesday through Tuesday night. Low pressure developing west of the area eventually moves south and then southeast of the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. Brief high pressure follows for Thursday with several disturbances moving through the area from late week through early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The synoptic pattern across the local region conveys mid level ridging today with surface high pressure moving farther out into the Atlantic.
Southerly winds will increase and with veering low level profiles and more sunshine compared to the previous day, a much warmer day is expected compared to the previous day.
However, for eastern and interior sections of the region, more clouds are forecast compared to locations to the west and along the coast to the western parts of the region. Some subtle small amplitude shortwaves could traverse these more interior and eastern parts of the region and will be associated with more clouds.
Taking a look at CAMs for today, the HRRR, HRW NSSL, HRW ARW, HRW FV3, and NAM Nest all indicate within their forecast reflectivity fields isolated to scattered coverage of showers moving across mainly the northern half of the forecast region and also across much of the eastern half of the region for this afternoon through this evening.
The mechanism for convective initiation appears to be a small shortwave embedded within the approaching ridge that moves NW to SE across the forecast region latter half of this afternoon into this evening.
Corresponding to this area of isolated to scattered shower activity from the SREF conveying an area of higher level moisture between 850mb and 500mb along with weak Q vector convergence between these same two vertical levels.
NBM was used for high temperatures noting some substantial warm air advection and the NBM was higher than MOS also.
Mid level ridge axis moves overhead tonight with the ridge then shifting east and farther out into the Atlantic overnight into early Tuesday. An overall strong consensus of negative vorticity advection is shown for the first half of the night, so this will help with subsidence and thereby allow for decreasing clouds.
At the surface, high pressure will continue to move offshore out into the Atlantic. Low level SW flow will continue. Radiational cooling will be partially mitigated along the coastal areas as onshore flow and winds staying up within the boundary layer under the eventually mostly clear sky.
For temperatures, used the NBM for lows tonight.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
More of a SW synoptic flow sets up going into Tuesday with mid level ridge moving farther east of the region and an approaching trough from the west. At the surface, a warm front moves northeast of the region and a trailing cold front will slow down well west of the region. This will keep the local area in the warm sector.
In the mid levels, a trough will continue to approach from the west Tuesday night into early Wednesday and will slow down as it becomes cutoff. The cutoff mid level low slowly traverses south and eventually southeast of Long Island Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Upper level jet streaks move in late Tuesday into Tuesday night.
The main upper level jet thereafter stays well south of the region late Tuesday night through midweek.
Multiple areas of low pressure are expected to form along the front with another frontal system approaching from the south Tuesday night into early Wednesday. The main frontal system to the south with its center of low pressure passes south and eventually southeast of Long Island Wednesday into Wednesday night.
The bulk of the rain is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday with the increase in low level omega as well as some increased divergence aloft. Rain intensity forecast as moderate and also expected the mode of rain will transition from convective to more stratiform. Low pressure moving farther southeast of Long Island late Wednesday night with decreasing POPs for rain. Rain could be heavy at times as layer precipitable waters increase to near 1.1 to 1.4 inches, highest along the coast.
For temperatures, used the NBM for highs Tuesday, and then a combination of NBM and CONSRaw for lows Tuesday night, followed by CONSRaw only for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Wanted to convey lower diurnal range of temperatures Wednesday into Wednesday night and the Wednesday daytime temperatures expected to be well below normal with the more easterly flow.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The area remains under an upper level trough by Thursday morning, though it is slowly making its way east of the area during the day.
Models disagree with the speed at which the trough moves away and thus differ on the extent of the surface low pressure's impact on the area. The GFS and CMC have the low far enough offshore where there shouldn't be much shower activity, though the ECMWF keeps the low closer to the area allowing for continued chance of showers during much of the day Thursday and Thursday night.
By Friday, another large scale trough brings another frontal system into the area from the west. While the day may be mostly dry, showers once again become possible later in the day and into Friday evening. The upper trough moves overhead slowly through the weekend allowing for several frontal waves and areas of low pressure to pass by. This likely continues the chance for rain showers through the weekend and into early next week.
Temperatures will largely be at or slightly below average for the extended period. Each day is expected to feature highs in the upper 60s to low 70s with each night in the 50s.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Weak high pressure builds over the terminals through morning before pushing offshore on today.
Generally VFR. MVFR is possible at KSWF into early morning, with IFR possible at KHPN.
Winds remain light S-SW, to locally light and variable through the early morning with winds becoming southerly and increasing during the afternoon. Gusts 15 to 20kt develop during the afternoon, peaking late in the day. Stronger winds with sea breeze enhancement likely at KJFK.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts in the afternoon may be more occasional. Sustained winds at KJFK may be a few knots higher, especially late in the day.
OUTLOOK FOR 09Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers late. MVFR or lower possible in mainly afternoon showers. S wind gusts 15-20kt near the coast late.
Tuesday night: MVFR or lower in showers. S wind gusts 15-20kt near the coast in the evening.
Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely in showers. Slight chance of a thunderstorm.
Wednesday night: Chance of showers with improvement to VFR possible.
NE wind gusts 15-20kt.
Thursday: Mainly VFR. NE wind gusts 20 kt possible.
Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90
MARINE
Persistent low level inversion will limit gusts across the waters late today into tonight. While most gusts will be in the range of 15 to 20 kt this afternoon into this evening, only localized gusts reach closer to 25 kt over parts of the ocean. The areal coverage of these SCA level gusts is not large enough to warrant the issuance of the SCA.
Conditions remain below SCA thresholds in the short term through Tuesday night. Wind gusts could get close at times to 25 kt over parts of the ocean but most gusts should be mostly limited to 20 kt due to the persistent low level inversion limiting the vertical mixing.
Wind gusts are forecast to remain generally 15-20 kt with more easterly flow developing Wednesday and then pick up Wednesday night with winds increasing and becoming more northerly. SCA wind gusts will be possible Wednesday night especially on the ocean. From prolonged onshore flow and fetch, ocean seas are forecast to build to SCA levels Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Throughout the entire short term, non-ocean waters are expected to remain at sub-SCA conditions.
Looking at the long term marine forecast period from Thursday into the start of the weekend, lingering SCA waves on the ocean subside by Friday with sub-SCA conditions on all waters through Saturday.
HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic problems expected.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 44022 - Execution Rocks | 9 mi | 41 min | SW 7.8 | 52°F | 30.01 | 47°F | ||
| KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY | 13 mi | 56 min | S 5.1G | 51°F | 30.04 | |||
| BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY | 28 mi | 56 min | 50°F | 58°F | 29.99 | |||
| BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT | 28 mi | 56 min | NNW 2.9G | 47°F | 29.98 | |||
| ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ | 32 mi | 56 min | W 11G | 49°F | 30.04 | |||
| 44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor | 37 mi | 46 min | SW 14G | 51°F | 55°F | 30.04 | 45°F | |
| MHRN6 | 37 mi | 56 min | SW 8G | |||||
| SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ | 38 mi | 56 min | WSW 8.9G | 49°F | 58°F | 30.06 | ||
| NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT | 44 mi | 56 min | W 4.1G | 49°F | 56°F | 30.04 | ||
| 44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY | 48 mi | 46 min | W 12G | 51°F | 52°F | 30.05 | 47°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFRG REPUBLIC,NY | 13 sm | 32 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 46°F | 43°F | 87% | 30.04 | |
| KHPN WESTCHESTER COUNTY,NY | 15 sm | 29 min | W 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 46°F | 43°F | 87% | 30.02 | |
| KLGA LAGUARDIA,NY | 19 sm | 34 min | WSW 06 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 52°F | 43°F | 71% | 30.03 | |
| KJFK JOHN F KENNEDY INTL,NY | 21 sm | 34 min | WSW 09 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 50°F | 45°F | 82% | 30.05 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Bayville Bridge, Oyster Bay, New York, Tide feet
Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:07 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 01:18 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:30 AM EDT -0.60 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:39 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 07:32 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:17 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 10:39 AM EDT 0.84 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:38 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:56 PM EDT -0.60 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:03 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:04 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 11:06 PM EDT 0.84 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:07 AM EDT Moonset
Mon -- 01:18 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:30 AM EDT -0.60 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:39 AM EDT Sunrise
Mon -- 07:32 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:17 AM EDT Moonrise
Mon -- 10:39 AM EDT 0.84 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:38 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:56 PM EDT -0.60 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:03 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:04 PM EDT Sunset
Mon -- 11:06 PM EDT 0.84 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots
| 12 am |
| 0.3 |
| 1 am |
| 0.1 |
| 2 am |
| -0.1 |
| 3 am |
| -0.4 |
| 4 am |
| -0.6 |
| 5 am |
| -0.6 |
| 6 am |
| -0.3 |
| 7 am |
| -0.1 |
| 8 am |
| 0.1 |
| 9 am |
| 0.3 |
| 10 am |
| 0.7 |
| 11 am |
| 0.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| -0.6 |
| 6 pm |
| -0.5 |
| 7 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 8 pm |
| -0 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.8 |
Upton, NY,
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