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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 918 Pm Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
Fri..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain, mainly in the evening.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..E winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Chance of rain.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain.

ANZ300 918 Pm Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. High pressure remains centered over the southeastern states tonight and moves slowly offshore Thursday and Thursday night. A weak cold front then approaches on Friday and passes through during the night, weakening further nearby on Saturday. A series of lows will then impact the area from Sunday into Tuesday.

FXUS61 KOKX 300604 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 104 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure centered over the Southeastern states will move slowly offshore Thursday and Thursday night. A weak cold front will then approach on Friday and move through Friday night, weakening further nearby on Saturday. A series of lows will then impact the area from Sunday into Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
A weak shortwave was moving quickly through cyclonic flow aloft, accompanied by overcast mid level clouds. This wave will move offshore overnight, with clearing skies from about 08Z-11Z.
While very weak warm air advection was setting up, with the clearing skies and relatively light winds late, temperatures will be falling to near what overnight lows were last night, with lows about 5-10 degrees below normal.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
Return flow will be strengthening during Thursday as the surface high moves off the southeastern coast, and low level warm advection strengthens. There will be an increase in upper level moisture, so after a start with mostly clear skies, high thin clouds will be moving in, especially late in the day, well ahead of the next system approaching in the southern stream from the southwestern states. Temperatures will be rebounding to near normal levels.

Thursday night the area remains in a deep southwest flow with increasing warm advection and a strengthening flow as a southern stream shortwave moves int the southern Great Lakes region by 12Z Friday. Overnight lows Thursday night will be near to just above seasonal normals for the beginning of meteorological winter (December 1st).

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A rather unsettled long term period with multiple chances for precipitation. Stuck fairly close to the NBM through this period.

The long term starts off Friday with a weak surface cold front approaching the region. The morning will start off dry, however PoP will quickly increase, becoming likely during the afternoon and evening, continuing into the overnight as the front moves across. QPF will remain on the light side, below 1/4 inch.

A series of shortwaves will pass near the region this weekend into next week. Right now, it looks like the best chances for rain will take place Sunday afternoon/night as low pressure developing near the Carolina coast passes well offshore, and then again Mon afternoon/night as another shortwave passes near the region with a surface low developing and passing offshore.

Temperatures will remain at or slightly above normal through much of the long term, It wont be until next Wednesday when temperatures fall below normal as the last of the series of lows pulls in colder air from the NW.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR as high pressure remains to the south. OVC080 cigs should generally scatter from west-east between 08Z-11Z, at the NYC metros between 08Z-09Z. WSW winds 5-10 kt overnight into the morning should start to increase closer to 10 kt after about 14Z-15Z, back SW this afternoon, then diminish somewhat tonight.

...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Late tonight: VFR.
Friday: Rain in the afternoon/evening with MVFR or lower cond.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. Sunday and Monday: Chance of rain, with MVFR or lower cond possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Winds and seas should remain below advisory levels through Thursday as high pressure remains to the south. Strengthening SW flow as low pressure and an associated cold front approach from the NW may produce minimal SCA cond on the ocean waters, with 25-kt gusts Thu evening, and seas up to 5 ft late Thu evening into the overnight.

SCA cond could last into Fri as the pressure gradient tightens.
Seas will be up to at least 4 ft, it's possible 5 ft seas will be reached.

Generally quiet conditions this weekend. A better chance of SCA conditions will come from Mon-Tue as low pressure develops and passes nearby.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns through next Wednesday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Mount Sinai Harbor
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Thu -- 12:51 AM EST     5.75 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:08 AM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:19 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:03 PM EST     6.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:08 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:44 PM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mount Sinai Harbor, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet

Setauket Harbor
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Thu -- 12:50 AM EST     6.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:01 AM EST     0.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:19 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:02 PM EST     7.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:08 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:37 PM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Setauket Harbor, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet

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