NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
A cold front was beginning to move through the region, into lower Hudson Valley and portions of northeastern New Jersey. The front was accompanied with a narrow line of showers, briefly moderate, and gusty winds, with report of gusts 30 to 38kt. No lightning has been observed, however, with weak instability and low CAPE a brief rumble cannot be ruled out, and have kept slight chances for thunder.

Timing of the front moving east of southeastern Connecticut and eastern Long Island is around 02Z to 03Z. A few showers were behind the front, and have kept probabilities for an hour or so post frontal.

Latest CAMs data is rather consistent with the timing and areal coverage of precipitation moving through the region, and have continued with these probabilities through this evening.

Rapid drying of the atmospheric column occurs as surface and low level high pressure build into the region, with the upper trough remaining across the northeast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
High pressure builds in at the surface, but an upper level trough remains over the northeast through Sunday night. A cooler and drier airmass moves into the region, and high temperatures will peak at 5 to nearly 10 degrees below seasonal normals.
Sunday night with clear skies and light winds, temperatures will be nearly 10 degrees below seasonal normals.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Key Points:

* Predominantly dry conditions set up through late in the week.

* Warming trend with high temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees above normal by Thursday.

A rather tranquil and warm long term period with conditions appearing almost entirely dry. Trough axis overhead on Monday shifts offshore by Monday night, with heights climbing thereafter thru late week as ridging builds in. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Midwest gradually translates east into the Mid Atlantic by midweek, offshore by late week, then lingering nearby into next weekend.

Shortwave rounding the departing trough may try and instigate a few showers late Monday or Monday night, but even this looks minimal in coverage locally with limited moisture and better forcing to the north. Perhaps most noticeable will be an increase in cloud cover later Monday. Thereafter, mostly clear skies prevail through late in the week with nearby high pressure. Highs each day will just above seasonable, in the low to mid 80s for most.
The urban corridor may be a few degrees warmer on Thursday and Friday, in the upper 80s, under weak WSW flow. Overnight lows are generally progged in the 60s.

AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A cold front passes through the terminals late this aftn and eve.

Generally sct-bkn around 1500ft until the fropa this aftn/eve.
Tstms possible mainly thru 23Z, with later timing for far ern arpts. Becoming VFR after the fropa and continuing thru Sun.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Some adjustments to TSTM timing possible. Low chance of IFR thru 21- 23Z with low cigs. NW winds gusting to around 30kt with shwrs this eve. Winds may become vrb at times aft the initial line of shwrs until the front passes later.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Rest of Sun...VFR with NW winds gusting to around 20kt.

Mon...Mainly VFR. Chance of isold-sct aft/eve shwrs.

Tue-Thu...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A SCA remains on the ocean waters until early Sunday afternoon.
Brief gusts with the initial passage of a cold front late this afternoon and into this evening may produce gusts at or over 25 kt across the remainder of the forecast waters, and with the brief timing of the gusts have not expanded the advisory to the remainder of the waters. Also, on the ocean and New York Harbor, gusts may briefly approach gale force. With high pressure building into the waters tonight and through Sunday night, and lowering swells will allow for ocean seas to fall below 5 feet by early Sunday afternoon. Afterward, winds and seas will remain below advisory through Sunday night.

Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria from Monday through at least midweek, as the pressure gradient remains weak across the region.

HYDROLOGY
No significant hydrologic issues are expected through the end of next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
High risk of rip current development continues into this evening for all local Atlantic facing beaches with an easterly swell of 5 to 6 ft at 10 sec combines with increased southerly flow.

The risk drops to moderate on Sunday, and remains moderate on Monday. While the flow will be offshore from the NW, a short period wind wave will combine with a decreasing easterly swell (3 ft at 9s) to allow for at least a moderate risk of rip current development.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.