Sunrise 5:36 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 9:08 AM   Moonset 12:22 AM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1013 Pm Edt Sat May 11 2024
Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 2 seconds. Slight chance of showers after midnight. Sun - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers, mainly in the morning. Sun night - SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 2 seconds. Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 2 seconds. Slight chance of showers.Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 2 seconds. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Tue night - S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Wed - SE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely. Wed night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers. Thu - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Thu night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 1013 Pm Edt Sat May 11 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A frontal system approaches from the west tonight and then passes south and east of the area on Sunday. High pressure returns Sunday night. A warm front passes north of the area Monday into Tuesday. Low pressure may impact the area for the middle of the week

FXUS61 KOKX 120557 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 157 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

SYNOPSIS
A frontal system approaches from the west tonight and then passes south and east of the area on Sunday. High pressure returns Sunday night. A warm front passes north of the area Monday into Tuesday. Low pressure may impact the area for the middle of the week, with another frontal system possible by next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Have adjusted POPs with this update. Showers have underperformed this morning, so cut back precipitation to far western areas. It looks like the latest CAMs are trying to develop persistent showers for the NYC metro and areas south and west of the NYC metro later this morning while other areas remain mostly dry, so have adjusted the forecast accordingly.

A large upper level trough remains over Eastern North America.
Within this trough, a middle level ridge will push east of the area thsi morning, followed by a shortwave trough. At the surface, high pressure continues to ridge down from northern New England. An associated frontal system will slowly approach with lift increasing west of the NYC metro. Showers will accompany the increased lift, especially across NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley, slowly making their way towards the NYC metro around day break. Mainly light showers are expected with a small chance for a brief occurrence of moderate intensity.

A chilly night is in store despite the increasing cloud cover.
Lows look to fall into the middle and upper 40s for most spots and around 50 degrees in the NYC metro. These low temperatures range from 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
The aforementioned shortwave becomes a broad closed low overhead early Sunday morning. There will be two separate areas of middle level energy within the low, one to our northeast and then another to our south and west. The models are also in good agreement with the cutoff low quickly shifting to our east around midday. The remaining energy to our south and west will shift to a less favorable position for supporting the shower activity. The upper trough and cutoff low will then slowly shift to a position near or just off the New England coast Sunday evening.

Showers, mainly on the light side, will continue from around the NYC metro/Hudson River corridor in the morning. The showers will try to shift eastward in the morning, but will likely encounter subsidence behind the lead energy and slowly dissipate as they move over southern CT and western/central Long Island.
The showers will continue to dissipate early in the afternoon with dry conditions likely returning around 19z. Total rainfall amounts range from one to two tenths west of the NYC metro, a few hundredths to a tenth in the NYC metro, and possibly a trace to see a few hundredths east of the Hudson and NYC metro.
Locations on the east end and southeast CT may remain completely dry. Lingering middle level moisture likely leads to mostly cloudy skies for the remainder of the daytime hours.

The other story for Sunday will be unseasonably cool temperatures with highs only reaching the middle and upper 50s.
These highs are 10-15 degrees below normal for this time of year.

Heights will rise Sunday night as the upper trough continues departing to the east. Surface high pressure will be in place leading to dry conditions. Clouds should slowly diminish through the night with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies by early Monday morning. Another chilly night is expected with lows in the 40s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Dry wx is expected on Mon with high pres along the coast. Sly flow develops during the day with a warm front to the N and sea breeze impacts. This will modify temps for most of the area E of the Hudson River. With the boundary to the N and some energy embedded in the flow aloft, a few shwrs are possible Mon ngt and Tue. Greater instability could yield some tstms N and W of NYC Tue aftn and eve, then low pres approaches from the SW and rain, with a few embedded tstms, overspreads the area Tue ngt into Wed. Despite the cool ocean, the warm airmass yields highs in the 60s and 70s on Tue per the NBM. Mixing down the GFS from h85 would produce mid 70s without adding in the seasonal solar adjustment which would bring the numbers to around 80. Stuck with the NBM for now, but some higher readings possible in NJ and up the wrn portion of the Hudson Valley. Clouds and residual rain keep temps lower on Wed, then pcpn chances subside Wed ngt into Thu. Temps rebound on Thu with more sunshine despite nely flow. Another frontal sys is possible late Fri into Sat. The timing and track are a little uncertain, with the ECMWF slower than the GFS. As a result, the blended approach using the NBM was used.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A weakening frontal system moves in going into today. Weak high pressure return later today and tonight.

Some light rain showers are expected with this frontal system with higher chances for NYC terminals, KHPN and KSWF and lesser chances for KISP and KBDR. KGON may not receive any rainfall.
Chances are too low for rain for KGON to include in their TAF.

VFR is expected to transition to MVFR going into this morning.
Some MVFR may last into this afternoon, but otherwise mainly VFR conditions are expected this afternoon into tonight.

Wind speeds less than 10 kt expected during the TAF period. Wind direction overall southerly on average becoming more SW late in the TAF period.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

MVFR timing could vary from TAF by a few hours. Some fluctuation between VFR and MVFR possible going into this morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Late Sunday night through Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible in mainly afternoon showers, an isolated thunderstorm possible inland. S winds 15kt coastal terminals.

Tuesday night: MVFR likely in showers and possible tstms.
S winds 10-15kt coastal terminals.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower still likely in showers and t-storms.
SE winds 10-15G20kt, becoming NE late day and at night.

Wednesday night: VFR. N winds 10-15G20kt.

Thursday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
No changes to the winds and seas at this time.

Seas east of Moriches Inlet are likely to end up around 4 ft this evening and may occasionally reach 5 ft. Not anticipating the need for an SCA. Conditions will remain below SCA levels through Tuesday night with a weak pressure gradient over the waters. There could be period of marginal 5 ft seas on the ocean Mon and Tue. A SCA will be needed on the ocean Wed with low pressure, and possible elsewhere. SCA cond may linger through Thu, subsiding by Fri.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected through next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Only localized minor coastal flooding is expected for the most vulnerable locations along the south shore back bays of Nassau County with high tide tonight. A coastal flood statement remains in effect. Otherwise, no additional coastal flooding is anticipated as astronomical tide levels continue subsiding into early next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Nissequogue River entrance
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Sat -- 01:56 AM EDT     7.94 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:25 AM EDT     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:33 PM EDT     6.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:37 PM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
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Nissequogue River entrance, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet

Northport
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Sat -- 02:03 AM EDT     8.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:05 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:36 AM EDT     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:40 PM EDT     7.06 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:49 PM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Northport, Northport Bay, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet

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