Thursday, July2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Centerport, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:30PM Thursday July 2, 2020 7:03 PM EDT (23:03 UTC) Moonrise 6:09PMMoonset 3:09AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 643 Pm Edt Thu Jul 2 2020
Tonight..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms this evening.
Fri..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 643 Pm Edt Thu Jul 2 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. An upper level low will continue to gradually pull away from the area tonight. A cold front will pass through on Friday, followed by weak high pressure for the weekend. A weak frontal system approaches early next week and remains in the vicinity through the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Centerport, NY
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location: 40.9, -73.38     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 022250 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 650 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weakening upper level low near Nantucket will gradually pull away from the area tonight. A back door cold frontal passage occurs on Friday, followed by weak high pressure for the weekend. A weak frontal system approaches early next week and remains in the vicinity through the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. Increased POPs for southwestern Connecticut to chance for the showers and thunderstorms that are heading south from the mid Hudson Valley. These storms should make their way into the Lower Hudson Valley and southwest Connecticut between 7 and 8 pm. With the loss of daytime heating, they are expected to weaken, however, an isold svr cannot be ruled out with 0-6kt bulk shear about 30-40kt per the NAM. Overnight convection is not expected attm with a different flow regime in place and the upr low of the past few days passing out to sea. The NBM was followed for temps tngt.

Otherwise, made some minor adjustments to hourly temperatures as they were too cool in the metro area.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean beaches this aftn and eve due to a continued SE swell.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. A backdoor cold front passes on Fri. At least sct shwrs and tstms are expected to develop along and ahead of the boundary aft 16Z or so. Little change was needed to previous fcst timing, although probabilities were increased across the board due to a good model consensus and favorable timing during the daytime. Across ern portions of the area, temps will likely fall in the aftn behind the front. Across wrn areas, temps may cool due to convection. However, temps ahead of the front have a tendency to warm greater than guidance, so areas from the Hudson River wwd may eclipse fcst highs. As the front tracks w of the fcst area Fri ngt, a more stable airmass will build in. This would normally end pcpn chances, but there is some potential shrtwv energy approaching from the nw which could spark some additional rain. As a result, low chances for shwrs have been kept in the fcst thru the ngt. The NBM was followed for temps.

There remains a moderate risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean beaches on Friday due to a SE swell.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Tranquil conditions expected over the weekend with weak high pressure at the surface and seasonable temperatures as the area will be upper level shortwave off the mid-Atlantic coast and a building ridge over the middle of the country.

Another back door cold front approaches from the north Sunday night. There is uncertainty as to whether it actually will push south of the area. Regardless, the frontal boundary become stationary and remain in the vicinity through the middle of next week. This will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms starting Sunday night (only a slight chance for southeastern Connecticut) and continuing through next Thursday. This period will be characterized by typical summertime diurnal showers and thunderstorms as the frontal boundary appears to be weak with very Little forcing. Chances for precipitation are greatest during the day and lessen at night. In fact, Tuesday night may be dry for the entire forecast area as upper level ridging moves over the region and may provide enough subsidence to overcome the weak lift from the frontal boundary. However, a passing shower or thunderstorm could not be ruled out a this point during those time frames. Best chances for precipitation will occur away from the coast where the more unstable air will reside.

With ridging moving into the area and high pressure over the northern Atlantic at the surface, a warm and humid air mass will set up for at least Tuesday and Wednesday and possibly Thursday, setting up the first potential heat wave of the season. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s during this time frame, with the warmest readings expected across the New York City metro area and northeast New Jersey. Dew points will rise into the upper 60s to around 70 (and possibly even lower to middle 70s). This would translate to heat index values in the middle to upper 90s range, leading to possible Heat Advisories being issued. Wednesday and Thursday seem like the more likely days, with Tuesday possibly seeing more isolated heat index values of 95 to 99.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. An upper level low along the northeast coast will begin to weaken and drift east today. A cold front will pass through on Friday.

VFR through the TAF period. There is a slight chance for a developing afternoon shower or isolated thunderstorm mainly for KSWF.

NW winds under 10 kt. Afternoon sea breeze development is likely at coastal terminals after 18z. Winds turn west/northwest late tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Fri. Mainly VFR. Aftn/eve shwrs and tstms possible. Sat. Mainly VFR. Sun-Mon. Mainly VFR. Aftn/eve shwrs and tstms possible, especially wrn areas. Tuesday. Mainly VFR.

MARINE. Winds and seas will remain blw sca lvls thru Fri ngt. With a weak pressure gradient over the region through the weekend, winds and waves should remain below SCA criteria.

HYDROLOGY. Some urban and poor drainage flooding is possible on Fri with any stronger tstms that develop. Locally heavy rain is possible in any thunderstorms that develop Monday through Thursday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The combination of a SE swell and increasing astronomical tides will bring waters levels across western Long Island Sound and the south shore back bays of western Long Island close to minor coastal flood benchmarks during the evening high tide cycles through the upcoming weekend. Based on Steven's NYHOPS-E being overdone the last few high tide cycles and considering it's coarser SNAP-Ex being better, preference remains toward a blend with the lower ETSS and ESTOFS. This brings water levels close to minor coastal flood benchmarks along the south shore bays of Nassau county this evening. Thus, a statement has been issued to address this potential. That being said, guidance all indicates a gradual uptick through the weekend due to the approaching full moon. Thus, there is the potential for a statement and/or advisory level event Friday through Sunday. The south shore bays of western Nassau appear to be most susceptible.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . NEAR TERM . SHORT TERM . LONG TERM . JP AVIATION . CB MARINE . HYDROLOGY . TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 11 mi79 min SW 5.8 G 5.8 82°F 1 ft71°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 18 mi34 min N 5.8 G 9.7 87°F 67°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 21 mi46 min E 1.9 G 5.1 89°F 1008.2 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 22 mi46 min SSW 5.1 G 8.9 84°F 71°F1006.7 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 36 mi46 min 86°F 71°F1007.7 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 36 mi46 min SW 9.9 G 13 78°F 75°F1006.7 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 40 mi24 min SSW 14 G 18 74°F1007.6 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 40 mi46 min S 8.9 G 9.9 82°F 1007.5 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 44 mi46 min 87°F 76°F1007.8 hPa
MHRN6 45 mi46 min WNW 18 G 21
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 45 mi46 min WNW 23 G 26 77°F 74°F1008.5 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi24 min SSW 14 G 16 75°F 76°F1007.8 hPa71°F

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY12 mi71 minSSW 1110.00 miFair82°F68°F63%1008.1 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY16 mi68 minSSW 910.00 miA Few Clouds80°F69°F69%1008 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY22 mi68 minNW 7 G 1610.00 miA Few Clouds90°F59°F35%1007.1 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT23 mi72 minSSW 910.00 miFair87°F64°F48%1007 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFRG

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6W4--NE6CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmNW3NE3CalmCalmW6N4NW6NE565S11S12S11SW9
1 day agoE5SE4S5CalmNE5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmN5NE3N5CalmCalmCalmN6SW7S11S9SW10SW10S12SW6
2 days agoNE4N5NE5N3NE3NW3NW4N5N4N5N5NE7NE6NE7NE7CalmCalm6W7SW63S3E5E6

Tide / Current Tables for Northport, Northport Bay, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:48 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:47 AM EDT     1.06 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:07 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:08 AM EDT     -0.76 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:27 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:13 PM EDT     1.01 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:24 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:32 PM EDT     -0.79 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.200.40.910.70.30-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.7-0.3-0.10.10.610.80.40.1-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.