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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 342 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2023
.gale warning in effect until 7 pm est this evening...
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 342 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. High pressure builds in from the southwest through Tuesday. A cold front will pass through early Wednesday, followed by strong high pressure building from the west from later Wednesday into Friday. The high will weaken on Friday, allowing a weak cold front to pass through from the north early Saturday, with strong high pressure returning for the weekend.

FXUS61 KOKX 112116 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 416 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build from the southwest through Tuesday. A cold front will approach late Tuesday night and pass through early Wednesday, followed by strong high pressure building from the west from later Wednesday into Friday. The high will weaken on Friday, allowing a weak cold front to pass through from the north early Saturday, with strong high pressure returning for the weekend. Unsettled weather may make a return on Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
In the wake of deepening low pressure that has pulled north into SE Canada, high pressure begins to build in from the south and west, bringing drier, calmer conditions to the region.

The pressure gradient remains rather tight as the departing low deepens and high pressure begins to build in. This allows for a blustery rest of the day with NW flow occasionally gusting 30 to 35 mph as the upper trough axis pivots through. Late in the day and into the evening the pressure gradient begins to decrease somewhat and winds lighten. Winds gradually decrease this evening. After midnight, expect clear skies, allowing temperatures to fall back nicely overnight, with lows largely below freezing across the region.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A much quieter regime sets up for the bulk of the remainder of the week as high pressure largely dominates.

Brief zonal flow aloft in the wake of the departing trough on Tuesday will give way to another northern stream trough, which will sends a dry cold front through the area early Wednesday morning. Ahead of it, a rather tranquil day is on tap. With little moisture in the column, more sun than clouds can be expected as afternoon highs in the low to mid 40s, or just a couple of degrees below normal for the time of year. The relaxed pressure gradient will allow much lighter winds than on Monday, with a modest SW flow prevailing. Temperatures overnight fall back into the 20s across the interior, and the 30s along the coast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A deep longwave upper trough swinging across ern Canada will send a cold front through early Wed. CAA in its wake should maintain temps a few degrees below normal into Thu night as strong high pressure builds across.

After the upper trough passes, building heights aloft will lead to a quick warming trend for Fri into early next week. A weak, dry frontal boundary may sink through from the N early Sat, accompanied by a band of low to mid level clouds at most but no appreciable change in temps for the weekend, which should remain dry as another strong sfc high builds across.

Evolution of a low pressure system to the south early next week is very uncertain per divergent model solutions, with the ECMWF keeping the low suppressed well to the south via a more amplified nrn stream trough while the GFS brings the sys slowly up the coastal plain. Model guidance during that time at least has better agreement on a moistening low level maritime flow bringing clouds into the area Sunday night-Mon, also low chance PoP mainly for Long Island and SE CT.



AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure builds in during the TAF period.

VFR. Brief MVFR cigs possible at KSWF and KHPN into early evening. WNW winds gusting mostly 25-30 kt, diminishing early this evening to mostly 20-25 kt. Frequent gusts then drop off by midnight. Winds shift W late tonight, then become SW around 10 kt with possible occasional gusts to 20 kt Tue afternoon.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional peak gusts of 31-35kt possible through 22Z-00Z.

Winds are expected to average around 310 magnetic through this evening, however, medium confidence that winds will tend to favor north/right of 310 magnetic through 03Z-05Z, then south/left of it thereafter for all but KEWR, which should more likely prevail south of 310 magnetic.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday: VFR. SW winds G15-20kt possible in the afternoon.

Wednesday: VFR. NW winds G20-25kt in the afternoon.

Thursday through Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Extended the Gale Warning on all waters until 00Z Tue with 35-40 kt gusts still being observed as as departing low pressure deepens. Diminishing winds this evening should bring an end to the gales on all waters, with SCA cond likely persisting into at least the first part of tonight. Hazardous ocean seas should continue into Tue-Tue night, with WSW flow gusting up to 25 kt on the ocean Tue night.

SCA cond on the ocean and perhaps on some of the near shore waters surrounding Long Island on Wed, with W flow gusting up to 25-30 kt and ocean seas 5-6 ft, should expand to all waters late day Wed into Wed night as winds shift NW and cold air advection increases. These conditions should last into Thu AM on the ocean and the eastern Sound/bays.

As strong high pressure building in from the west weakens Thu night-Fri night and a secondary cold front passes off the New England coast, the pressure gradient should increase enough to allow a return of minimal SCA cond to the ocean waters, with NW winds gusting up to 25 kt and seas possibly briefly building to 5 ft Fri AM.

HYDROLOGY
The threat for flooding from the rains on Sunday and earlier today has come to an end. Several flashy small stream rivers continue to slowly rise, but are expected to stay below minor flood thresholds.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-332-335- 338-340-345-350-353-355.

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Bayville Bridge, Oyster Bay, New York, Tide feet

Throg's Neck
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Mon -- 12:54 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:17 AM EST     0.89 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:54 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:25 AM EST     -0.69 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 01:07 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:10 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:41 PM EST     0.96 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 07:27 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:51 PM EST     -0.69 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current, knots

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