Wednesday, July17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bayville, NY

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Sunrise 5:35AMSunset 8:25PM Wednesday July 17, 2019 6:18 AM EDT (10:18 UTC) Moonrise 9:10PMMoonset 6:06AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 526 Am Edt Wed Jul 17 2019
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms late this morning. Chance of showers and tstms this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this morning and afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Tstms likely in the evening. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Fri..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 526 Am Edt Wed Jul 17 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front will push east of the area this morning. A cold front and the remnant low of barry then approach and slowly move through the region tonight and Thursday. High pressure will then remain centered over the southeast into the weekend. Another weak cold front moves slowly through the area Saturday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayville, NY
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location: 40.9, -73.55     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 170927 cca
afdokx
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service new york ny
527 am edt Wed jul 17 2019

Synopsis
A warm front will push east of the area this morning. A cold
front and the remnant low of barry then approach and slowly move
through the region tonight and Thursday. High pressure will then
remain centered over the southeast into the weekend. Another weak
cold front moves slowly through the area Saturday night. A stronger
cold front approaches and moves through on Monday.

Near term through tonight
Upper level ridging flattens today as the remnant energy and
moisture from barry approach the area. A sub tropical airmass
is already in place with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s
across the area in the wake of a passing warm front.

As the remnants of post t.C. Barry get caught up in the
westerlies, some enhancement to the low mid-level flow is
expected later today. Midlevel lapse rates will be weak, but
substantial heating of a moist airmass (pw values generally
around 2 inches) will result in the development of moderate
instability. Widespread convection will develop west of the area
this afternoon, moving through the local area mainly this
evening. Latest cams disagree on the coverage of convection this
aftn, but are in better agreement this evening. Thunderstorm
clusters will be capable of damaging winds. Additionally, pwats
of 2+ inches, a weakly sheared environment, an enhanced SW flow
at h85 and increased convergence along a cold front dropping
southward into the area could be enough for some training of
storms resulting in the potential for flash flooding. FFG values
across interior portions of the lower hud valley and ct appear
to be too high for widespread issues, but the aforementioned
ingredients are enough to warrant an urban flash flood threat.

Have left long island and coastal ct out for now with guidance
indicating a weakening of the activity as the convection moves
east of nyc. Soundings are also indicating the potential for
buoyant parcels decreases after 03z or so bringing an end to
tstms. While moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall will likely
continue overnight, the flash flood threat would not be as
high, thus confidence is lower here. Day shift may have to
expand the watch if confidence increases later today.

Temperatures are tricky with partly sunny skies expected today.

However, any breaks will allow for strong heating, thus expect
highs of mid to upper 80s outside of the metro area, where lower
to mid 90s will be common. Heat index values will generally be
in the lower to mid 90s, close to 100 in the urban corridor of
ne nj. Muggy conditions will continue tonight as lows only fall
into the 70s, and dew points remain mainly in the 70s as well.

There is a low rip current risk at the ocean beaches today.

Short term Thursday
The remnant low of barry is forecast to be near montauk by 12z
thu bringing the end of the widespread heavy rainfall potential
to an end. However, a lee trough may trigger additional sct
convection across western portions of the forecast area thu
aftn. A weakly sheared environment will remain with the
potential for heavy downpours with pwats remaining elevated. May
need to extend the ffa depending on how much rainfall is
received today. Abundant cloud cover will hold temps in the
upper 70s to lower 80s at most locations although it will remain
quite humid.

There is a low rip current risk at the ocean beaches for
Thursday.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Low pressure moves farther out to sea Thursday night, resulting in
diminishing rain chances during this time period. Drier weather is
expected by sunrise.

The main story in the long term then becomes the heat for Friday
through Sunday as high pressure builds southwest of the region.

As high pressure settles southwest of the region, heights aloft
build along with surface ridging. The a southwest flow will usher in
much warmer air, allowing temperatures to climb into the mid 90s for
the urban corridor of NE nj, lower 90s for the city and lower hudson
valley, and 85-90 for most of LI and ct. With dew points forecast to
be in the lower 70s, maximum heat indices will average in the upper
90s to around 100 for all but ct and most of li.

The warmest day of the weekend will be Saturday, with highs around
100 for NE nj, and some locations within the city, and 90s
elsewhere. Heat index values will likely reach at least advisory
levels everywhere, and a good portion of the forecast area could
potentially reach warning levels. Maximum heat index values reach at
least 100 or more across most of the cwa, with metro nj, approaching
hi values of 110.

A weak cold front is forecast to move through late Saturday night,
but this will do little to send any relief from the heat.

Temperatures are still forecast to reach near 100 once again for
some areas on Sunday, but for now will go with highs mostly in the
mid to upper 90s. Some areas could reach heat warning levels once
again, and most areas would probably reach advisory criteria.

A stronger cold front and wave of low pressure moves into the area
on Monday, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs on
Monday will be in the in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Any left over precipitation should end late Monday night with drier
conditions on Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday will be a few degrees cooler
than on Monday.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
A warm and humid airmass will remain in place today. A weak low
moves into the area late this afternoon into tonight, as a backdoor
cold front begins to move into the region toward the end of the
forecast period.

Vfr until late this afternoon. Showers and scattered
thunderstorms will be developing late in the day and into the
evening with MVFR conditions, and local ifr possible.

Widespread MVFR conditions remain Wednesday night with showers
and more isolated thunderstorms. Local ifr is also possible.

Southwest wind overnight 5 to 10 kt, increase to 10 to 15 kt
this morning. Sea breezes likely this afternoon.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 4 mi89 min S 3.9 G 5.8 75°F 71°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 10 mi49 min S 5.8 G 7.8 76°F 70°F70°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 13 mi55 min SSW 8 G 8.9 78°F 70°F1015.1 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 27 mi55 min SW 4.1 G 5.1 76°F 72°F1014.2 hPa
44069 28 mi49 min SW 7.8 G 12 77°F 80°F76°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 28 mi49 min 77°F 73°F1014.8 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi49 min S 6 G 7 77°F 1014.7 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 36 mi55 min 79°F 76°F1014.8 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 38 mi29 min SSW 7.8 G 7.8 76°F 75°F2 ft1014.8 hPa76°F
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 39 mi49 min SSW 4.1 G 6 78°F 79°F1015.1 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi29 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 75°F 72°F2 ft1015.2 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY14 mi26 minSW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F72°F88%1015 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY15 mi83 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F66°F79%1014.3 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY19 mi28 minSSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F68°F63%1014.4 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY21 mi28 minS 610.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F75°F100%1015.2 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY24 mi28 minWSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F68°F67%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from FRG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4CalmS46SW5S7
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1 day agoN7NE6NE10N8NW6CalmCalmW7S11S10SW12SW10SW9S9SW6SW7SW6CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4N6N4
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Tide / Current Tables for Bayville Bridge, Oyster Bay, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:35 AM EDT     -0.71 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:58 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:08 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:38 AM EDT     0.99 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:58 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:58 PM EDT     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:21 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:02 PM EDT     0.97 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:18 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.7-0.4-0.200.40.90.90.60.2-0-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.3-0.10.20.710.70.30.1-0.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.