Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bayville, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
The forecast is on track with only minor changes needed. Some light returns on the radar moving into the forecast area from the west. Current HRRR shows these showers generally dissipating as they make their way toward the area. Additionally, there is a large temperature/dew point spread, especially across northeast NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley, and this may cause more in the way of virga if any light showers move through.

Low pressure tracks well to the west tonight, through the eastern Great Lakes as a weak warm front approaches to the southwest. There is little forcing with the front, and guidance shows that the front may dissipate before moving into the region. Chances for showers increase late tonight as the low moves into upstate New York and shortwave energy rotates through the upper trough across the northeast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
As one area of energy moves out of the region early Saturday morning showers may become more scattered before increasing late morning into the afternoon as a cold front approaches and additional energy moves into the region. With increasing CAPE late morning and through the afternoon, across northeastern New Jersey, into the lower Hudson Valley, NYC, and into Nassau county, and southwestern Connecticut, thunderstorms will be possible. Farther to the east the marine influence will be great enough to keep thunderstorms from tracking farther to the east.
An isolated storm or tow is possible, however, not enough coverage and confidence to include in the forecast at this time.
The flow is progressive and the upper trough and cold front moves through the northeast with showers ending by late Saturday night. A gusty northwest flow develops behind the cold front and blended in the 90th percentile of the NBM for both sustained winds and gusts late Saturday night and through Sunday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Cut off low and associated upper level trough push continue to move away from the area Sunday night as a building upper level ridge from the Great Lakes region approaches. At the surface, high pressure to the east builds into the region, pushing south of the area and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Monday night.

Upper level ridge axis moves over the area Tuesday, with a warm front lifting north of the area Tuesday night, followed pretty quickly by the cold front Wednesday. The passage of the cold front looks moisture starved, lacks a strong upper level trough, and with the surface low passing well north and west of the region in southern Quebec, much of the forcing with this front will be well north of the area. Therefore, not looking at a lot of precipitation.
In fact, while there might be some light rain showers Tuesday night in association with the warm front, the passage of the cold front may move through dry.

High pressure builds in for Wednesday through Wednesday night as another upper ridge moves through the northeast Thursday night, which allows the next frontal system to approach for the end of next week.

As for temperatures, they will be above normal and on the increase from Monday through Wednesday, with Tuesday being the warmest. Highs will be in the 70s away from the coast, and 60s along the coast.
Temperatures fall back to seasonable on Thursday, with 60s expected region-wide, with slightly warmer readings expected for Friday.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A frontal system approaches from the west during the TAF period.
Associated cold front moves through Saturday late day into evening.

VFR conditions to start this evening but lower stratus and increasing showers will make for MVFR late this evening, trending to mainly IFR overnight into early Saturday. Some fog is possible as well. With increasing winds, mainly MVFR expected Saturday with showers becoming more intermittent.

A line of thunderstorms is possible Saturday afternoon into early evening. This is indicated with a PROB30 group for NYC terminals as well as KHPN and KSWF. Farther east, any thunderstorms are expected to weaken with no thunder mentioned for Southern CT TAFs and KISP.

Regarding winds, much of the TAF period will have southerly flow around 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to near 20 to 25 kt are forecast Saturday. Winds become more westerly and increase after cold front passage Saturday evening with gusts approaching 30 kt in some locations.

Low level wind shear is expected but just for most eastern terminals such as KISP and KGON with SW winds of 40-45 kt at 2kft overnight into Saturday morning.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments are likely to refine the timing of MVFR and IFR which could be 1-3 hours off from TAF. Categories could fluctuate Saturday between MVFR and IFR. Localized LIFR possible.

Amendments are likely to refine the timing of any thunderstorms which could be 1-2 different than indicated in TAF.


OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Saturday night: MVFR with some possible lingering rain showers and an isolated thunderstorm. Conditions improving to VFR by late evening with showers tapering off. Winds become NW and gusty. NW wind gusts 25-30 kt.

Sunday: VFR. NW wind gusts near 25-30 kt. Wind gusts lower to near 20 kt in the evening and diminish overnight.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR at night with possible showers. SW wind gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon at night. Wind gusts up to 25 kt possible at times for afternoon into evening.

Wednesday: VFR. W-NW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
With the approach of low pressure moving across the eastern Great Lakes region tonight into Saturday morning, and a warm front to the southwest, southerly winds will be increasing this evening, and ocean seas will be building. Have begun the ocean SCA a few hours earlier, 200 AM EDT, with the earlier increasing gusts and seas. Otherwise, the other advisories remain as previously posted. Southerly winds and gusts increase Saturday, and there is the potential of gusts approaching gale force east of Moriches Inlet for a few hours late Saturday morning into the afternoon, and near SCA levels on the central Long Island Sound. With the short period and low confidence will not post a gale of small craft for those zones. Winds and gusts will likely fall below advisory levels Saturday evening for several hours as the cold front moves through, however, ocean seas will likely remain elevated. Then SCA conditions develop on all the waters late Saturday night and through Sunday, and possibly into Sunday evening, behind a cold front, and advisories may be issued later.

Winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA criteria through Tuesday. Wind gusts of 25 to 30 kt are possible over the ocean and south shore bays Tuesday night with the approach and passage of a cold front. Waves build to 5 to 6 ft on the ocean waters during this time frame. Waves slowly diminish Tuesday night, falling below SCA criteria on Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ332.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ340- 345.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.