Saturday, August15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shinnecock Hills, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 7:50PM Saturday August 15, 2020 3:18 PM EDT (19:18 UTC) Moonrise 1:59AMMoonset 5:34PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 1226 Pm Edt Sat Aug 15 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
This afternoon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with occasional gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the evening, then chance of rain after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Wed..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1226 Pm Edt Sat Aug 15 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure passes southeast of long island as high pressure builds into new england today. The high retreats towards the canadian maritimes on Sunday as another low pressure approaches from the middle atlantic coast. This low passes offshore on Monday. A cold front follows Monday night into Tuesday with high pressure by Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shinnecock Hills, NY
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location: 40.91, -72.45     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 151717 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 117 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure continues south and east of the area as high pressure continues to build over New England today. A low pressure approaches from the southwest on Sunday. A cold front follows Monday night into Tuesday with high pressure returning for the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Forecast on track with just some minor adjustments to reflect current observations.

High pressure anchored over eastern Canada results in ridging down the Appalachians today, as tropical storm Kyle heads well southeast of the area. A mid level shortwave approaches by the afternoon, however, the day should remain mostly dry under east/northeast flow and subsidence, with seasonable temperatures and dewpoints in the low 60s.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean facing beaches today.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/. A challenging forecast is setting up for Sunday with respect to rain chances for the area. The main players are a surface low that develops in association with a stalled frontal boundary south of the area with the aforementioned mid level shortwave, and the retreating high pressure system northeast of the area. The low progresses northeast Saturday night into early Sunday passing south of Long Island by Sunday evening. Light rain/drizzle will be possible in advance of the main system on Sunday morning from NYC on east as the column begins to saturate. With respect to the surface low, the latest model guidance has generally trended a bit further north with the track/placement of this feature, which would lead to a more widespread rainfall event, for at least southeastern Long Island and SE CT. On the wetter side, the NAM is slower and further north with the low and shows a healthy 1-2" rainfall for much of the CWA while the EC keeps the system to the south with very light amounts. The precipitation gradient is fairly tight however, given the dry air just to the north. So, have increased precipitation chances across the southeast portions of the CWA, and with PWAT values of 1.0-1.75 in., the potential does remain for any precipitation to be heavy on Sunday across these areas.

Regardless, cloud cover will be in place over the CWA which, along with easterly flow, will keep high temperatures rather cool, in the mid to upper 70s. It will also be breezy, particularly along the coastal areas, on Sunday afternoon, as the low passes to the south.

There is a high risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean facing beaches on Sunday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. For most of the week a quasi stationary long wave trough over eastern Canada is the dominate feature. As the trough pivots through New England early next week, the dynamic lift induced by the positive vorticity advection could initiate precipitation locally. In addition the trailing weak cold front extending through New York late Monday may also promote showers and thunderstorms. Precipitable water values 1.2 to 1.3 inches mean that showers forming in this environment should be light to moderate.

A brief reprieve from the rain mid week is not out of the question as high builds into the region behind the cold front. However additional showers are still possible owing to another shortwave impulse riding through the longwave flow. Afternoon highs mid week should remain in the low 80s for areas not impacted by rain. Following this shortwave, ridging and dry air return to the forecast area. Temperatures Friday could as a result be slightly higher than the previous days reaching the upper 80s and low 90s.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. High pressure remains centered to the northeast into Sunday. Low pressure approaches from the south tonight and nears the Long Island coast on Sunday.

Mainly VFR through this evening. Some MVFR is still possible at GON, but ceilings should lift to VFR by 20z. MVFR becomes widespread tonight, especially after midnight. MVFR will then continue through Sunday as rain develops in the morning.

NE-E winds 10-15 kt this afternoon. Gusts are still possible, but may not be frequent at NYC metro terminals. Gusts to around 20 kt are more likely across Long Island and southern Connecticut terminals. Gusts end this evening, with NE winds around 10 kt through tonight. NE winds 10-15 kt expected Sunday morning.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Sunday Afternoon-Night. MVFR with rain with a chance of IFR. NE gusts around 20kt near the coast. Rain diminishes overnight. Monday. VFR. Chance of late day/nighttime MVFR in shower or thunderstorm. Tuesday. Mainly VFR. Wednesday-Thursday. Mainly VFR, chance of showers and MVFR Wednesday night and Thursday.

MARINE. E-NE flow on Saturday will bring wind gusts 25-30 kt across the ocean zones, especially east of Fire Island Inlet. Wind gusts on Saturday on the LI Bays and Eastern Long Island Sound will also reach 25 kts. Ocean seas will build to 6-7 ft today and will linger into Sunday evening. The SCA for the Atlantic ocean waters has been extended through 10Z on Monday.

Northeast winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt are possible on the ocean waters Sunday owing to an approaching low pressure system from the south. Ocean waves may rise to 6 to 8 feet, especially east of Fire Island Inlet into Monday.

Sub SCA conditions with light west winds 5-10 kt are expected on Tuesday. Winds shift south by the middle of the week as a week low passes to the north. Light north winds 5-10 kt are again possible late this week.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are expected through tonight. There remains a low probability of a heavy rain event on Sunday for eastern LI and southeastern CT. Should the surface low progged to lift northeast pass closer to Long Island, QPF values between 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher amounts are not out of the question. This would result in nuisance to minor flooding primarily in urban and other poor drainage areas. Confidence in this scenario is low at this time.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Easterly flow resulting from a low pressure system passing to the south today and Sunday may bring tide levels close to minor flooding benchmarks. This will occur across the vulnerable south shore back bay locations during times of high tide this evening and Sunday evening. The higher chance of occurrence is on Sunday evening, and levels may approach minor benchmarks, but should fall just short.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ330- 340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . DJ/DBR NEAR TERM . BC/DBR SHORT TERM . DBR LONG TERM . DJ AVIATION . DS MARINE . DBR HYDROLOGY . DBR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 26 mi29 min NE 23 G 27 72°F 74°F6 ft1016 hPa66°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 28 mi49 min 72°F 71°F1017.1 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 35 mi73 min NE 5.1 G 8 79°F 77°F1016 hPa
44069 37 mi49 min ENE 9.7 G 16 76°F 68°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 37 mi49 min NE 6 G 8.9 73°F 74°F1017 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 43 mi49 min SE 8.9 G 12 78°F 76°F1016 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY11 mi26 minNE 14 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F63°F56%1016.8 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY23 mi23 minVar 610.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F62°F58%1016.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN4NE4CalmSE5CalmCalmSE5N3NE3CalmCalmCalmN3NE5NE4NE4NE7NE10E7SE8SE11
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2 days agoS8S6SW6SW5S3S5S4SW4SW3SW6W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5SE66SE4N3NE6

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Long Island Sound, New York
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:57 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:43 AM EDT     2.14 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:55 PM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:54 PM EDT     2.90 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.510.60.40.611.51.82.12.121.61.310.80.60.81.422.52.82.92.7

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:41 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:53 AM EDT     0.91 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:48 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:01 AM EDT     -1.31 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 01:28 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:14 PM EDT     1.41 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:30 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:41 PM EDT     -1.51 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.8-0.40.20.80.90.80.5-0.1-0.8-1.1-1.3-1.1-0.7-0.30.41.11.41.31.10.4-0.4-1-1.4-1.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.