Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shinnecock Hills, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Drier and cooler today with weak high pressure in place.

2) Minor flood benchmarks are likely to be met or exceeded at many coastal locations for tonight's high tide cycles.

3) Cold front on Sunday brings showers and a much colder air mass into the region for early next week.

4) Gradual warming trend mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1

Weak high pressure nosing down from New England maintains drier and cooler conditions to start the weekend.

Light onshore flow develops around the high by late morning, and expecting a fair amount of cloud cover to come with it, especially across eastern areas. The cool wind off the waters (SSTs in the low 50s) and limited sun should restrain temperatures along the coast into the afternoon, with highs across Long Island and much of CT only getting into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

To the north and west away from this maritime influence, additional sunshine should help temperatures climb more into the upper 60s and even lower 70s. Clouds then build in regionwide by this evening ahead of an approaching frontal system.

KEY MESSAGE 2

With Friday's new moon, water levels will remain astronomically high for the next few nights.

A weak onshore flow, initially out of the ENE into this afternoon gradually veers to the ESE towards this evening. This additional component should slightly enhance the potential and extent of coastal flood impacts. Therefore, Coastal Flood Advisories and Statements are now in effect for tonight's high tide cycles.


KEY MESSAGE 3

Broad upper trough approaches tonight, pushing a cold front through the region early Sunday. A sprawling Canadian high then builds in for early week.

Associated rain with the front develops as early as late tonight for western areas, gradually overspreading the rest of the region into Sunday morning. A few heavier showers and rumbles of thunder with a weak wave of low pressure passing nearby are possible ahead of the main frontal forcing, otherwise a light to moderate band of rain showers moves through from early Sunday AM into the afternoon. QPF is relatively light, averaging between a quarter to half inch by Sunday evening. Other than typical ponding in urbanized and poor drainage areas, no hydro concerns from this activity. Still not out of the question the rain tapers as some wet flakes across the higher elevations of the Lower Hudson Valley and SW CT, but no impacts expected if this were to occur.

A sharply colder air mass then briefly settles in through Tuesday.
Early day high temperatures expected Sunday with the fropa occurring in the morning, followed by temperatures falling into the 40s through the afternoon as CAA kicks in on NW flow. Cold advection along with mostly clear skies Sunday night will lead to temperatures falling into the 30s for much of the area except in the NYC metro where low 40s appear likely.

Cyclonic flow and steep lapse rates with a cold pool aloft should lead to the development of stratocu Monday afternoon.
Continue to carry slight chance PoPs (~15%), with potential for a few brief pop up showers. A few could even contain ice pellets across the northern interior. Coldest of the period looks to be Monday night, with clear skies and light winds helping to efficiently cool the BL. A widespread freeze appears likely outside the urban NYC metro, with lows ranging from the mid 20s across the interior to mid 30s in the city, or about 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

The cooler regime is short-lived, with gradual moderation returning conditions to above normal by midweek.


KEY MESSAGE 4

Gradual warming trend by midweek as high pressure slides offshore and a warm front lifts through, setting a milder SW flow.

While far from the early season heat earlier this week, daytime temperatures look to return to the 60s and 70s for most, and may trend even warmer to end the week as ridging is progged to build over the East. Absent a few showers with the frontal system on Wednesday, much of mid to late week looks dry.

AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure remains nosed in from the northeast through today.
The high retreats tonight as a cold front approaches from the west, and moves into the terminals toward Sunday morning.

Low confidence in the forecast this morning as stratus and fog develops and advects into the terminals, with mainly LIFR conditions. Amendments reflect the LIFR to potential VLIFR.
Timing of any improvement is uncertain, especially for the eastern terminals as large area of stratus moves westward.

Winds light and variable to light ENE into early this morning.
Winds then veer to the E/SE up to around 10 kt during the day, and should remain SE into this evening.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of lowering conditions to LIFR this morning is uncertain as stratus and fog develop and move into the terminals. IFR to MVFR may linger longer through the day before MVFR to IFR conditions return late afternoon into tonight.

Low confidence at this time.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Late tonight: Widespread IFR to LIFR in stratus and fog. Chance of showers, becoming likely toward Sunday morning.

Sunday: IFR to LIFR conditions early in low clouds and fog, otherwise MVFR with showers likely, possibly a thunderstorm. NW gusts 20 kt in the afternoon and evening.

Monday-Tuesday: Slight chance of showers Monday, otherwise VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Conditions remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) thresholds with weak high pressure in place today.

A cold front approaches tonight and moves across the waters Sunday. NW wind develop behind the fropa into the early afternoon, and gusts may exceed 25 kt into Sunday evening.
Ocean seas will also approach 5 ft, especially out 20-60 nm.
Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for at least the ocean, with potential across nearshore waters as well with marginal winds. Conditions improve Sunday night, and relatively tranquil weather is then expected into midweek.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Sunday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ071-078-176-177.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NYZ074-178-179.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...None.