Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shinnecock Hills, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Well above normal temperatures thru Friday.

2) Some showers and thunderstorms possible thru the period, but the best chances look to be north of the area.

2) Strong cold front Sunday with temperatures returning to near to slightly below normal Sunday night and Monday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
The fcst remains on track for warm wx this week. The NBM was generally followed, although temps along the coasts of NY and CT were adjusted upwards today and Wed closer to the MAV and MET.
It looks like the numbers may be weighted a little to heavily on the 2M model data in those spots. Similar adjustments may need to be made for both Thu and Fri. A lack of strong wly flow limits confidence in these areas torching out, but adjusting towards the MOS seemed fairly safe given the warm airmass building in.


KEY MESSAGE 2
Some shwrs and tstms possible thru the week with the area warm sectored. The main convergence zone however looks to remain N and W of the cwa. In this scenario, would expected initiation to generally occur outside of the cwa, then bleed into the area on storm flow or convectively induced boundaries, especially across the interior, for the late aftn and eve hours before completely falling apart. A shrtwv near the end of the week could provide a better focus for both initiation and intensity, but the timing will need to work out to allow for some instability to work with. Although the 00Z GFS has this feature passing thru during the day on Fri, the quicker AI-GFS produces practically nothing with an early mrng passage. Stuck with the NBM for pops and wx throughout the fcst.


KEY MESSAGE 3
A strong cold front is forecast to move through the region during Sunday, while there are still some timing difference, consenus is for a cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon. Showers will accompany the passage, with a chance of thunder as well.
After a prolonged period of above normal temperatures, the cold front passage will return temperatures to near to slightly below normal Sunday night through Monday night.

AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Offshore high pressure to the south will remain in place. Weak low pressure will pass across upstate New York and New England late this afternoon into this evening, bringing a front closer to the Hudson Valley terminals.

Mainly VFR through this evening. A late afternoon tstm possible at KSWF, also early evening at the NYC metros, with brief MVFR vsby reduction. Confidence high enough only to mention at KSWF.
Fog is possible late tonight at the NYC metros and along the coast.

Mostly light SW winds will become more southerly today and increase to 10-15kt with gusts 20-25 kt from the NYC metros north/west and 15- 20kt elsewhere. Winds become more SW-W and diminish to 10 kt or less tonight.

LLWS possible at KGON/KISP tonight, with WSW flow 35-40 kt at FL020.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low chance of a shower reaching the NYC terminals.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Wednesday through Saturday: Mainly VFR, with chance of afternoon and evening showers/tstms each day, mainly NW of the NYC metros, with brief flight cat reduction to MVFR. SW winds could gust 15-20kt each afternoon Wed-Thu as well.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
The SCA for seas was extended thru the day on the ern 2/3 of the ocean, although it could be canceled a bit early if seas subside quick enough this aftn. Elsewhere, winds will be blw SCA lvls.
Winds thru the Thu are expected to remain blw SCA lvls on all waters, but seas on the ocean will hover around 4ft, with 5ft waves possible at times. Despite a cold frontal passage on Fri, winds and waves are still expected to remain blw SCA lvls Fri and Sat attm.

CLIMATE
Daily record high temperatures that could be reached:

Wed, April 15: KEWR: 88/1960 KBDR: 81/1960 KNYC: 87/1941 KLGA: 86/1941 KJFK: 80/2006 KISP: 78/2024

Daily record high minimum temperatures that could be reached:

Tue, April 14: KEWR: 62/2014 KBDR: 54/2023 KNYC: 70/2023 KLGA: 67/2023 KJFK: 55/2023 KISP: 54/2022

Wed, April 15: KEWR: 60/2023 KBDR: 53/2012 KNYC: 67/1941 KLGA: 64/1941 KJFK: 58/1960 KISP: 56/2023

Thu, April 16: KEWR: 64/2002 KBDR: 53/2002 KNYC: 69/2002 KLGA: 68/2002 KJFK: 57/2002 KISP: 55/2012

Fri, April 17: KEWR: 68/2002 KBDR: 57/2002 KNYC: 74/2002 KLGA: 73/2002 KJFK: 60/2002 KISP: 61/2002

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350- 353.