Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shinnecock Hills, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) A cold front will bring the relatively mild spell of weather to an end by Thursday. Single digits wind chills are expected Thursday night.

2) A disorganized series of frontal systems move over the area this weekend which may result in chances of light snow or rain with a much colder airmass building over the area through early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1

Above average temperatures for this time of year will continue through Wednesday, followed by a change to colder and more typical temperatures for mid January for later this week.

Ahead of the front, chances for rain showers will increase from northwest to southeast into Wednesday evening. Following the frontal passage, strong cold advection will allow a change over from rain to a snow mix or perhaps even snow across the interior. These showers will quickly end by afternoon as dry advection takes place behind the front. Accumulations of any snow is expected to be minimal.

Note that because of the strength of the cold front, a non- diurnal temperature trend will occur Thursday, with the daytime high expected in the morning, followed by lowering or near steady temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Wind chills should get down into the single digits for the most part region wide.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Brief high pressure on Friday gives way to a digging trough west of the area with multiple pieces of mid-level energy rotating through it. These will result in a relatively weak, disorganized, and complex area of low pressure over much of the Northeast through this weekend and into early next week. As the several weak systems move through the area, chances of light snow or initially rain closer to the coast will be possible Saturday through Sunday evening. If it occurs, as PoPs only indicate a slight chance (20%) of precipitation, it will be light in intensity and disorganized.

By Monday, a more robust area of mid-level energy sweeps through allowing in a more significant low pressure intensification as it develops and moves to the northeast of the area. This is not anticipated to impact the CWA in any meaningful way with respect to sensible weather.

The most significant part of this pattern will be the rapid change in airmass that maintains over the area into next week.
Temperatures on Saturday will be seasonable with highs in the upper 30s and low 40s. By Sunday, high temperatures will be below average, only in the low 30s with colder temperatures anticipated for early next week. Highs by Tuesday will only be in the 20s. Wind chills by Monday night may be in the single digits.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A low pressure system tracks through southeastern Canada tonight as its associated cold front approaches well to the west. The cold front continues to approach Wednesday, moving through the area Wednesday night.

VFR through the forecast period with the exception of KSWF which may become MVFR by early Wednesday afternoon with light rain developing. With a weak surface trough in the vicinity tonight there may be a few light sprinkles overnight with no impacts to visibilities or ceilings.

Winds into late tonight, 07Z/08Z will be generally S 5 to 15 kt with the highest winds at the coastal terminals. A few gusts to near 20 kt possible at KISP. Also, marginal wind shear develops by late evening and continues into the overnight, with SW winds near 40 kt at 2 kft. Winds become more SW and diminish late tonight with light, less than 10 kt, S to SW winds Wednesday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Scattered light rain showers or sprinkles are possible late tonight into early Wednesday morning with no impacts to ceilings or visibilities.


OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Wednesday night: VFR, becoming MVFR, with IFR possible, late at night with rain showers developing.

Thursday: Slight chance light rain/snow early with MVFR or lower possible. Otherwise VFR. W-NW wind gusts 15 to 25 kt.

Friday: VFR. W-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Low chance MVFR or lower at times with slight chance of rain and/or snow late in the day into the evening.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. MVFR to IFR or lower in light snow late in the day.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Southwest winds are expected to increase into tonight ahead of an approaching low pressure system, bringing a subsequent increase in seas. Small craft conditions will develop on the ocean waters, south shore bays, and far eastern portions of the LI sound. Conditions will improve late Wednesday as a cold front begins to move through the waters, but seas on the eastern ocean waters may be slower to subside. Winds will then be gusty into Thu following the frontal passage.

Marginal SCA conditions are possible on the ocean waters by Friday with perhaps a lull in SCA-threshold criteria during the day. By Friday night, more widespread SCA conditions are likely on the ocean waters with gusts to 30kt and waves 5-7 feet. Though wind relaxes on Saturday, elevated wave heights will maintain SCA criteria on the ocean for Saturday.

EQUIPMENT
KOKX Doppler Radar is out of service.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ332-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353- 355.