Tuesday, August4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Stony Brook, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 8:06PM Tuesday August 4, 2020 10:30 AM EDT (14:30 UTC) Moonrise 9:07PMMoonset 6:33AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 923 Am Edt Tue Aug 4 2020
.tornado watch 416 in effect until 4 pm edt this afternoon...
.tropical storm warning in effect...
Today..Tropical storm conditions. SE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 35 to 45 kt with gusts up to 65 kt this afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 10 ft this afternoon. Scattered tstms. Chance of showers late this morning, then showers this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..Tropical storm conditions expected. SW winds 30 to 35 kt with gusts up to 55 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 10 ft, subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Scattered showers and tstms until early morning.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 923 Am Edt Tue Aug 4 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Tropical storm isaias will track west of the waters today, and into new england tonight. A weak low pressure trough will linger in the wake of isaias on Wednesday, then stall to the south from Thursday into Saturday as weak waves of low pressure move along it. Please refer to national hurricane center forecasts for further details on isaias.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stony Brook, NY
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location: 40.92, -73.15     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 041338 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 938 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. Tropical Storm Isaias will pass through the region today, most likely tracking just west of New York City. A weak low pressure trough stalls south of the area Wednesday and Thursday as weak waves of low pressure move along it. Weak high pressure should return on Sunday into Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. **TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY**

Much of the region from NYC east this morning has remained dry so far this morning. Expect this to continue until late morning into early afternoon when the main feeder band begins to rotate into the region. Adjusted PoPs to reflect this. Otherwise the forecast remains on track, with only minor updates to temperatures and dew points based on the latest trends.

Showers and tstms continue to develop nwd from the Mid Atlantic this mrng, with the main axis of pcpn pivoting nwwd. This trend will continue ahead of the approaching tropical storm. As low lvl shear increases with the approach of the low center, the threat for tornadoes will also increase. There has been a history of spinups this mrng south of the area. A Tornado Watch is in effect across the area until 4pm today.

A Flash Flood Watch continues for much of the forecast area. The axis of the expected heaviest rainfall however has shifted wwd, and the latest collaborated fcst indicates this. With the tropical airmass in place however, any tstms that develop, albeit quick movers, will have the potential to produce torrential rain.

The highest wind threat with regard to Isaias should correspond to the eastern semicircle of the storm. The official track keeps almost all of the area in this sector. Current peak wind timing is 17-03Z with the passage of the low. Sustained winds of around 50 mph are possible along coastal areas with gusts up to 70 mph. Generally speaking however, sustained winds of 40 to 50 are more likely across the forecast area, with gusts 55 to 70 mph.

After the storm passes, sct shwrs and tstms are possible on the backside of the sys tngt as the upr trof moves in.

A high rip current risk remains for the ocean beaches through tonight.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Generally fair wx is expected Wed and Wed ngt attm. A frontal boundary is progged to remain s of Long Island, and along this boundary will be the best chances for the development of shwrs and tstms. The GFS was the only model to bring this pcpn far enough n to reach the CWA, so a dry fcst has been issued. The NBM was used for temps.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. In the wake of Isaias, a relative quiet period in store. A closed upper low located over Ontario combined with the subtropical high over the Atlantic keeps the region in deep southwest flow to begin the period. A shortwave follows by Saturday before weak ridging builds back in for Sunday and Monday.

At the surface, a trough stalls southeast of the area, and a series of weak surface lows will traverse this feature Thursday into Saturday morning. This will result in increasing clouds and precipitation chances, especially for Long Island and southeastern CT. Surface high pressure builds in for Sunday and Monday resulting in mainly dry conditions.

High temperatures look to be at or just above normal through Monday as 850mb temperatures climb into the teens over the weekend and into Monday. The NBM with some minor adjustments was used for temperatures and dewpoints over the period.

AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. ***High Impact Aviation Weather Expected Today***

Isaias will quickly move across the region late this morning into the afternoon.

MVFR and IFR conditions to start should largely become MVFR through the morning. E-SE winds will also increase through the morning as Isaias approaches. The greatest coverage of showers will likely remain NW of the NYC metro terminals this morning. A band of heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms will quickly move across late this morning into the afternoon. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out this afternoon as well. Thunderstorms have been left out of the TAF due to uncertainty in timing and coverage.

The strongest winds are expected this afternoon with sustained winds 30-40 kt with gusts 45-60 kt. The strongest winds will likely occur across the coastal terminals. Low level wind shear is likely as well as winds at 2 kft could range between 60-70 kt 17-22z.

As Isaias moves away to the northeast in the late afternoon, a quick shift to SW winds is likely and conditions become VFR. Winds will also gradually diminish through the evening.

. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments likely today for changing flight categories, timing of strongest winds, wind shifts, and possible thunderstorms.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is YELLOW . which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments likely today for changing flight categories, timing of strongest winds, wind shifts, and possible thunderstorms.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is YELLOW . which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments likely today for changing flight categories, timing of strongest winds, wind shifts, and possible thunderstorms.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW . which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments likely today for changing flight categories, timing of strongest winds, wind shifts, and possible thunderstorms.

KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments likely today for changing flight categories, timing of strongest winds, wind shifts, and possible thunderstorms.

KISP TAF Comments: Amendments likely today for changing flight categories, timing of strongest winds, wind shifts, and possible thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. Wednesday. VFR with any lingering showers ending. Thursday-Saturday. Mainly VFR. Afternoon SHRA/TSRA possible.

MARINE. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for all waters. In addition, a Tornado Watch is in effect through 4pm this afternoon. Winds of 35-45 kt with gusts up to 60 kt are expected. The wrn waters are likely to receive the strongest winds based on the expected track of the storm. Isolated gusts over 60 kts are possible. Conditions will then improve quickly tonight as the tropical storm tracks into New England. Wave heights will build to 15-20 ft on the ocean, 5-10 ft on the Sound, and 3-6 on the bays.

Waves on the ocean will subside on Wed, but not fall blw 5 ft in all areas until Wed ngt. A frontal system stalls south of the ocean waters Thursday night into Friday evening with the chance of showers and thunderstorms. High pressure returns Friday. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels across the forecast waters Thursday through the upcoming weekend.

HYDROLOGY. The heaviest rainfall is expected to fall west of the Hudson River today. Storm total rainfall of 2-3 inches is fcst across these hardest hit areas. Elsewhere, generally an inch or less is expected. Locally higher amounts are possible all areas however as any stronger cells will produce torrential downpours in the tropical environment. Confidence in any moderate river flooding remains low due to rainfall forecast uncertainty.

A flash flood watch remains in effect through tngt for NYC, Northeast NJ, and the Lower Hudson Valley where guidance is lower with rain amounts for flash flood criteria. This is also closer to the heavier rain axis forecast.

No significant widespread rainfall is expected Thursday through Monday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Coastal flood warnings remain in effect for south facing shorelines of Long Island Sound, and western Long Island, and in/around NY Harbor, with advisories for the remaining waters.

A strong SE flow ahead of Isaias could produce surge of 2 1/2 to 3 1/2 ft in the warning area and 1 to 2 ft elsewhere. This would result in widespread inundation of 1 to 2 ft with localized values up to 3 ft in the warning area. Preference continues to be toward the higher end of the PETSS and NYHOPS guidance.

This is a one-cycle event, as winds shift W on the back side of the storm late Tuesday evening.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Tropical Storm Warning for CTZ005>012. Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for CTZ005-006. Coastal Flood Warning from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for CTZ009>012. NY . Tropical Storm Warning for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for NYZ072-073-078-079-081-176-177. Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NYZ067>075-176-178. Coastal Flood Warning from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NYZ074-075-080-178-179. Coastal Flood Warning from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for NYZ071. High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NYZ080-081-178- 179. NJ . Tropical Storm Warning for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. Coastal Flood Warning from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ006-106-108. MARINE . Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . NEAR TERM . FEB SHORT TERM . LONG TERM . DBR AVIATION . DS MARINE . HYDROLOGY . TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 16 mi61 min SE 16 G 18 78°F 76°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 18 mi43 min SE 9.9 G 12 79°F 77°F1013.6 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 23 mi31 min SE 16 G 21 79°F 74°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 28 mi43 min SSE 8 G 11 79°F 78°F1014 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 31 mi46 min SE 14 G 23 79°F 77°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 33 mi43 min SSW 11 G 19 79°F 1013.5 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 46 mi31 min SE 21 G 27 79°F1011.7 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 48 mi31 min ESE 18 G 21 73°F1010.3 hPa (-3.3)
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 48 mi43 min 79°F 76°F1012.3 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY9 mi35 minSE 15 G 2410.00 miOvercast80°F77°F90%1013.7 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi35 minSE 9 G 1810.00 miOvercast81°F75°F82%1014.4 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT18 mi39 minESE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F73°F85%1014.1 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY19 mi38 minSE 1310.00 miOvercast82°F75°F79%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Stony Brook, Smithtown Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stony Brook
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:16 AM EDT     6.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:41 AM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:44 PM EDT     6.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:55 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.86.65.74.22.61.10.1-0.10.61.93.556.16.35.74.53.11.70.60.20.823.65.1

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Sinai Harbor, Long Island Sound, New York
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Mount Sinai Harbor
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:13 AM EDT     6.81 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:49 AM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:41 PM EDT     6.24 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:03 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.86.65.64.22.71.20.1-0.10.51.83.4566.25.64.53.11.80.70.20.71.93.55.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.