Sunrise 5:31 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 3:28 PM   Moonset 3:11 AM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 913 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024
Today - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: ne 1 ft at 3 seconds. Slight chance of showers. Tonight - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: ne 1 ft at 2 seconds. Slight chance of showers. Sun - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: ne 1 ft at 3 seconds. Sun night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Mon - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 2 seconds. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.

ANZ300 913 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A weakening upper level trough will move across the area through tonight, otherwise surface high pressure will remain in control through the middle of next week. A cold front approaches late in the week.

FXUS61 KOKX 181748 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 148 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
A couple of upper troughs will be in the vicinity through tonight, otherwise surface high pressure will remain in control through the middle of next week. A cold front approaches late in the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
Minor adjustments made with this update, most notably, lowering high temps for eastern LI and SE CT due to bkn-ovc sky and some rainfall. Lift from a surface inverted trough and shortwave shifting south and slightly west in this area have been producing showers over the area. Thinking the activity here decreases this afternoon as some CAMS imply. Meanwhile a stronger shortwave to our SW may introduce showers across southern/western portions of the forecast area this afternoon into evening. High pressure will otherwise continue to slowly ridge south across New England and into the forecast area, and a large area of low pressure over the western Atlantic continues to send moisture into the area. Along with the chance of showers, plenty of cloud cover across the region.

Highs are forecast to range from near 60 across far eastern LI and SE CT, to around 70 from NYC and points north and west. This is generally a few degrees below normal. However, with the cloud cover, expect lows tonight in the 50s, slightly above normal. Temperature guidance is generally in good agreement with a slight upward trend.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
Surface high pressure along the new England coast remains in control during this time. Patchy light rain/drizzle may linger in the morning for far eastern areas, otherwise expect gradual improvement with decreasing clouds from west to east in the afternoon. This could be short-lived though for eastern LI and SE CT, where low clouds may linger or redevelop during the nighttime hours. Any clouds work east on Monday along with the surface ridge axis. Aloft, a high amplitude ridge builds over top of the area.

Temperatures will be on the uptick Sunday into Monday due to a lot more sun. Sunday will be a touch warmer than Saturday, but jumping to 75 to 80 north and west of NYC on Monday, with much of the coast getting to around 70.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
*Key Points*

*Above normal temperatures through midweek.

*A cold front approaches late in the week, bringing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Upper ridging noses into the region from the southern US early to mid week, becoming suppressed late in the week in response to a developing closed upper low drifting east across the northern plains/Great Lakes. Quite a bit of model spread on the evolution of this low, which manifests in timing and progressiveness differences in the resultant cold front pushing towards and into the region late in the week.

Before then, good agreement in high pressure over the region this weekend, slowly sinking se of the region and developing a return deep SW flow into the region by midweek. The result will likely be dry conditions with temps moderating to 10 to 15 degrees above normal away from the coast Tue thru Thu. Based on setup, and 850mb temps in the mid teens, have leaned away from cooler deterministic NBM and towards the higher NBM 50th percentile (high in the mid 80s)
for NE NJ and areas to the NW. NBM 75th percentile has temps approaching 90 in this area, which is plausible with deep mixing and SW flow. Meanwhile, SW flow off mid 50 degree waters will likely keep temps in 70s along the coast, but still seasonable.

Shower/tstm potential exists ahead/along pre-frontal trough and cold front, but with aforementioned upper low and frontal timing differences, have capped potential at low chance, possibly as early as Wed eve, with better chance Thu aft/eve. CSU MLP marginal severe storm threat for areas west of the Hudson River Wed eve, and the entire area Thu aft/eve looks reasonable based on synoptic and thermodynamic setup.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Weak high pressure remains along the northeast coast and into the mid Atlantic through Sunday afternoon. A weakening trough of low approaches from the west, and dissipates late tonight.

Conditions remained varied across the region, with MVFR east of the New York City terminals, and VFR at the New York City terminals and north and west. There is a chance of MVFR at the western terminals with scattered light rain into early this evening. During the early evening MVFR is expected to develop throughout the area, with KGON becoming IFR. Brief IFR will be possible at KISP toward Sunday morning. Areas of rain and drizzle will be possible this evening and into early Sunday morning.

Conditions may begin to improve toward 18Z Sunday. Moderate confidence in the forecast, with timing uncertainties with ceilings lowering.

Winds generally remain 10kt or less from the northeast

..NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Scattered MVFR ceilings are possible late afternoon with light rain, then becoming MVFR. Moderate confidence with the timing of lowering ceilings this evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday afternoon...MVFR early, then becoming VFR, except KGON remaining MVFR. Becoming MVFR at night.

Monday...MVFR early morning, then VFR.

Tuesday-Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday...VFR, a chance of MVFR with showers and thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A weak pressure gradient over the waters will likely sustain sub SCA levels through the middle of next week. The exception will be the potential for marginal southerly SCA gusts in and around the entrance to NY Harbor with coastal jet formation Wed aft/eve.

HYDROLOGY
There are no hydrologic issues through the middle of next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

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Sat -- 02:32 AM EDT     0.84 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:09 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:57 AM EDT     -0.57 knots Max Ebb
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Sat -- 03:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:15 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
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