Thursday, September16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Aquebogue, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 7:00PM Thursday September 16, 2021 2:09 PM EDT (18:09 UTC) Moonrise 5:03PMMoonset 1:20AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ331 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny To The Mouth Of The Connecticut River- 125 Pm Edt Thu Sep 16 2021
This afternoon..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Isolated tstms. Scattered showers.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri night..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 125 Pm Edt Thu Sep 16 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A front remains nearly stationary nearby, and gradually dissipates into Friday. Low pressure well south of long island on Friday will be moving northeast within the western atlantic through the weekend, passing well southeast of long island. Meanwhile, a weakening cold front approaches the local waters Saturday with high pressure eventually taking over for the latter half of the weekend into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aquebogue, NY
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location: 40.93, -72.58     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 161757 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 157 PM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. A front remains nearly stationary south of Long Island, gradually dissipating into Friday. Low pressure well south of Long Island on Friday will be moving northeast within the Western Atlantic through the weekend, passing well southeast of Long Island. Meanwhile, a weakening cold front approaches the local region Saturday with high pressure eventually taking over for the latter half of the weekend into early next week. The high pressure area will start moving offshore by the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. A frontal boundary remains south of Long Island this afternoon with thunderstorms along the boundary where convergence is occurring. Otherwise showers and isolated thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon as daytime heating peaks. With the scattered nature and low probabilities have kept with the coverage wording. Much of the day will remain nearly overcast across the region.

With high moisture content, around 1.75 inches of precipitable water, any thunderstorm can produce locally and briefly heavy rainfall which may result in nuisance and poor drainage flooding. Slow movement of storms if persistent enough may produce a more substantial flood concern, as such, WPC has much of the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall today. The highs today will be in the middle to upper 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Any stronger storms this evening gradually weaken though there will remain a chance for showers through much of the overnight period with onshore moist flow interacting with the stalled frontal boundary. Lows tonight will be in the middle to upper 60s.

The models remain coherent in their forecast depiction of a low off the coast of Carolinas. While the National Hurricane Center continues to indicate potential tropical development of this low, the models indicate a track of the low that passes southeast of the 40N/70W benchmark late Friday night and continue to track northeast farther away from the region for the upcoming weekend.

For Friday, with a narrow upper level jet streak off the coast of New England and right rear quadrant near the region, along with positive vorticity advection in the mid levels, there will be factors for lift during the day. These factors shift farther east Friday night eventually leaving the region. The surface pressure gradient between an offshore low and high pressure in the Canadian Maritimes will lead to easterly flow. With some frictional convergence and aforementioned factors aloft, there will be chances for showers through the day and into early evening and with weak instability, a slight chance for thunderstorms. Chances for showers lower Friday night with mainly dry conditions getting reestablished from west to east. Across the interior, with low level moisture, cooling of temperatures, and lighter winds, patchy fog is expected to develop Friday night into early Saturday morning.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. For Saturday, a weak cold front approaches from the west. There will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across Northeast NJ, Lower Hudson Valley, NYC, western parts of Long Island as well as Southwest Connecticut. These locations will be closer to the cold front and will be warmer and therefore more unstable relative to locations farther east.

For Saturday night into the rest of the weekend, high pressure will return and become established across the Northeastern Seaboard with dry weather forecast. A trough aloft and associated upper level jet will help accelerate the low in the Western Atlantic farther northeast, getting to a vicinity of southeast of the Canadian Maritimes.

Ridging increases Sunday night into early next week with high pressure at the surface remaining along the Northeastern Seaboard. This will be a large ridge of high pressure so expecting the weather to remain dry with subsidence from the high pressure. The high pressure area will start moving more out into the Atlantic by the middle of next week. Weather will remain mainly dry.

Temperatures are not much different from previous forecast with high temperatures averaging a few degrees above normal during the long term. One exception is Saturday with the relatively highest temperatures of the long term period, getting near 5 degrees above normal, as max temperatures reach more into the lower 80s.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. A stationary front remains south of Long Island thru Fri.

Sct shwrs and isold tstms possible thru 00Z, but coverage and probability were to low to pinpoint in the TAF. Because of this, VCSH has been included til 00-01Z. There are additional chances for shwrs and tstms tngt, but again the probability was too low to include in the TAFs. An isold shwr/tstm cannot be ruled out for Fri.

Cigs are expected to fall to MVFR this aftn and then IFR tngt. Conditions may remain IFR most of Fri, with improvement possible mainly aft 18Z. There could be some vis reductions tngt in br. 5sm vis has been included across wrn terminals attm.

Winds will generally be around 060-080 thru the TAF period.

. Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Amendments possible for the timing of falling cigs this aftn/eve. Amendments will be required if shwrs and tstms are expected to become widespread this aftn and/or eve.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Rest of Friday. Improvement to MVFR or VFR, then potential for IFR overnight. Sat. Mainly VFR. A cold front could produce isold-sct shwrs. Winds shift to the N by late in the day. Sun. VFR with NW flow. Mon-Tue. MVFR possible at times.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. The line of thunderstorms along the stalled frontal boundary have moved to just south of the forecast waters. No changes were made at this time to the forecast waters winds, seas, and weather.

Sub SCA conditions are expected into late tonight, though seas start building over the ocean waters around daybreak Friday.

Residual higher ocean seas of near 5 to 6 ft are forecast that will keep ocean with SCA level seas Friday into Saturday with otherwise sub-SCA conditions for non-ocean waters. Conditions are below SCA criteria for all waters by daybreak Sunday through early next week as strong high pressure moves across the waters, making for a weak pressure gradient.

HYDROLOGY. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out today. A few downpours are possible which may lead to nuisance minor urban flooding, however, the best chances for heavy rain is over the ocean, along a stalled frontal boundary.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. There will be a moderate risk of rip currents today for the ocean beaches with 2 to 3 ft ocean seas with residual southerly swell and E-SE winds of near 10 kt. For Friday, ocean seas will be building to 5 to 6 ft with more of an easterly swell and winds will be E-NE near 10-15 kt, making for a high risk of rip currents for the ocean beaches.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 15 mi190 min N 7.8 G 12 71°F 73°F1 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi52 min ENE 5.1 G 7 71°F 74°F1024.8 hPa
44069 31 mi40 min E 14 G 16 73°F 78°F69°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 33 mi30 min ENE 16 G 19 69°F 70°F1023.1 hPa67°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 34 mi52 min 70°F 72°F1023.8 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi52 min E 8 G 12 72°F 75°F1023.4 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 37 mi150 min E 16 G 18 71°F 1022.4 hPa57°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 40 mi58 min 72°F 73°F1024.6 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY7 mi77 minE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F67°F74%1023.8 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi74 minVar 610.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F63°F60%1023.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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SW8SW7SW5SW8SW6SW5W4CalmN8NE6E4E3E6NE11NE10E9E7
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2 days agoN6NW7NW6E3CalmCalmNW4NW3CalmSE9W8N6N3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE5E3Calm55S5

Tide / Current Tables for South Jamesport, Gt. Peconic Bay, New York
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South Jamesport
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:58 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:53 AM EDT     2.51 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:05 PM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:13 PM EDT     3.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.10.50.20.511.522.42.52.42.11.71.20.70.50.71.21.92.533.33.22.8

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:27 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:57 AM EDT     1.04 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:46 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:03 AM EDT     -1.42 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 12:29 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:27 PM EDT     1.46 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:32 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:45 PM EDT     -1.59 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.40.40.910.90.5-0.2-0.8-1.2-1.4-1.3-0.9-0.40.41.21.41.41.10.4-0.3-1-1.5-1.6-1.4

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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