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Marine Weather and Tides Aquebogue, NY Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 5:55AM

Sunset 7:57PM

Monday August 10, 2020 2:28 PM EDT (18:28 UTC)

Moonrise 11:34PM

Moonset 12:33PM

Illumination 58%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aquebogue, NY

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Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 101707 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 107 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. A broad area of high pressure will remain over the region today before moving out into the Atlantic on Tuesday. A cold front will slowly approach on Wednesday and move over the area on Thursday. The front will pass south and become stationary off the Mid Atlantic coast from Friday into the weekend as weak disturbances move along it.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Morning dew points were a few degrees higher than forecast especially along the coast. Also, the stratus and fog has mixed out and skies were clear. Afternoon highs and dew points, with heat index values, were unchanged.

High pressure and slight ridging aloft will remain over the region today. This will result in the first of several hot an humid days for the local area as south-southwest flow becomes established. Under plenty of sunshine, highs today are expected to rise into the lower 90s across much of New York City, northeast New Jersey, and the Lower Hudson Valley, with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s elsewhere. These temperatures combined with dew points around 70 will yield heat index values in the mid 90s across much of the region. A Heat Advisory will go into effect for much of the region today with the exception of Suffolk County on Long Island and the southern portions of Middlesex and New London Counties in Connecticut.

While much of the area will remain dry, can't completely rule out an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, primarily northwest of NYC where the better instability lies.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at Atlantic Ocean beaches today due to long period southeasterly swell.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. Hot and humid conditions will continue into Tuesday as the surface high and upper ridge axis move offshore. After overnight lows remaining in the 70s across much of the area, afternoon highs on Tuesday will be very similar to those experienced today, with low 90s inland and mid to upper 80s along the coast. Afternoon dew points will be a degree or two higher, resulting in another day with heat index values in the mid 90s across a good portion of the area. Again, can't completely rule out an afternoon shower or thunderstorm away from the coast.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at Atlantic Ocean beaches on Tuesday due to long period southeasterly swell.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. A cold front will begin to approach the region on Wednesday, but despite an increase in cloud cover ahead of the front, expecting another day with heat index values rising into the mid 90s across much of the region. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase through the day as the front draws closer, with the best chances from the NYC metro area north and west. With PW values of 1.5-2 inches and weak winds aloft, any storms that develop could be capable of producing heavy rainfall as well as isolated pulse svr given steep low level lapse rates.

A better chance for tstms with heavy rainfall possible on Thu as as the front enters the area and as mid levels moisten up in its advance. Winds aloft look weak, so storms should once again be slow movers.

The front should sink to the south this weekend, but may still remain close enough for continued shower chances especially toward NYC and Long Island Fri/Sat, with increasing disagreement among the global models as the weekend progresses. ECMWF builds high pressure from eastern Canada down into the area on Sunday while a wave of low pressure passes to the south, which could result in dry/breezy conditions along the coast. GFS maintains more ridging off the coast and allows the front to remain closer or return northward more quickly, perhaps too quickly. Compromised between the two while leaning more toward the ECMWF.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Western Atlantic high pressure will be in control through Tuesday.

Mainly VFR through the forecast period. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible this afternoon and then again Tuesday afternoon, mainly north and west of the NYC terminals. Stratus is likely to develop at GON, with some MVFR visibility at HPN. There is a lower chance for fog/stratus out ISP and BDR.

Away from sea breezes, the flow remains light to start. S-SW flow should increase at all terminals through the afternoon. Speeds around 10 kt for most except JFK which could see sustained winds near 15 kt. S-SW winds diminish tonight before increasing again Tuesday morning.

NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Wind speed could be a few kt higher at times this afternoon.

KLGA TAF Comments: Variable winds through 19z, then S-SW flow around 10 kt with sea breeze. The sea breeze could be delayed until 20z.

KEWR TAF Comments: Wind could stay light out of the SW if sea breeze holds to the east this afternoon.

KTEB TAF Comments: Wind could stay light out of the SW if sea breeze holds to the east this afternoon.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. Tue Afternoon-Tue Night. VFR. Isolated shower or thunderstorm possible in afternoon. Wed-Thu. Chance for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or lower conds. Fri-Sat. Chance of showers and MVFR or lower conditions in shower. Slight chance of thunderstorms.

MARINE. Winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria through Friday night.

HYDROLOGY. Will continue to monitor potential for flooding with the approach of a cold front mid to late week. This threat appears to be isold in nature on Wed as PW increase to near 2 inches while mid/upper levels remain somewhat drier, then greater on Thu as PW rises above 2 inches and entire column moistens up. Slow moving storms could produce heavy rainfall in short order, but with wind fields aloft relatively weak any cell training would depend on mesoscale factors impossible to predict this far out in time.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ005>010. NY . Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ067>075-176>179. NJ . Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . FEB NEAR TERM . FEB SHORT TERM . FEB LONG TERM . FEB/Goodman AVIATION . DS MARINE . FEB HYDROLOGY . Goodman

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT	30 mi	58 min	SSW 7 G 8		82°F
44069	31 mi	58 min	SSW 12 G 14	77°F				74°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY	33 mi	48 min	SW 12 G 14	74°F	73°F		1017 hPa	72°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY	34 mi	58 min			73°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT	36 mi	58 min	SW 7 G 11		78°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT	40 mi	58 min	S 11 G 13		72°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY	7 mi	35 min	SSW 7	2.00 mi	Rain Fog/Mist	76°F	73°F	94%	1017.4 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY	17 mi	32 min	S 11	10.00 mi	Fair	87°F	71°F	59%	1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for South Jamesport, Gt. Peconic Bay, New York

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Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (14,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY

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