Monday, August10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Aquebogue, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 7:57PM Monday August 10, 2020 2:28 PM EDT (18:28 UTC) Moonrise 11:34PMMoonset 12:33PM Illumination 58% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 923 Am Edt Mon Aug 10 2020
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..S winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 923 Am Edt Mon Aug 10 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A broad area of high pressure will remain over the region today before moving out into the atlantic on Tuesday. A cold front will slowly approach on Wednesday, move into the area on Thursday, then pass south on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aquebogue, NY
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location: 40.93, -72.58     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 101707 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 107 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. A broad area of high pressure will remain over the region today before moving out into the Atlantic on Tuesday. A cold front will slowly approach on Wednesday and move over the area on Thursday. The front will pass south and become stationary off the Mid Atlantic coast from Friday into the weekend as weak disturbances move along it.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Morning dew points were a few degrees higher than forecast especially along the coast. Also, the stratus and fog has mixed out and skies were clear. Afternoon highs and dew points, with heat index values, were unchanged.

High pressure and slight ridging aloft will remain over the region today. This will result in the first of several hot an humid days for the local area as south-southwest flow becomes established. Under plenty of sunshine, highs today are expected to rise into the lower 90s across much of New York City, northeast New Jersey, and the Lower Hudson Valley, with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s elsewhere. These temperatures combined with dew points around 70 will yield heat index values in the mid 90s across much of the region. A Heat Advisory will go into effect for much of the region today with the exception of Suffolk County on Long Island and the southern portions of Middlesex and New London Counties in Connecticut.

While much of the area will remain dry, can't completely rule out an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, primarily northwest of NYC where the better instability lies.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at Atlantic Ocean beaches today due to long period southeasterly swell.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. Hot and humid conditions will continue into Tuesday as the surface high and upper ridge axis move offshore. After overnight lows remaining in the 70s across much of the area, afternoon highs on Tuesday will be very similar to those experienced today, with low 90s inland and mid to upper 80s along the coast. Afternoon dew points will be a degree or two higher, resulting in another day with heat index values in the mid 90s across a good portion of the area. Again, can't completely rule out an afternoon shower or thunderstorm away from the coast.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at Atlantic Ocean beaches on Tuesday due to long period southeasterly swell.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. A cold front will begin to approach the region on Wednesday, but despite an increase in cloud cover ahead of the front, expecting another day with heat index values rising into the mid 90s across much of the region. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase through the day as the front draws closer, with the best chances from the NYC metro area north and west. With PW values of 1.5-2 inches and weak winds aloft, any storms that develop could be capable of producing heavy rainfall as well as isolated pulse svr given steep low level lapse rates.

A better chance for tstms with heavy rainfall possible on Thu as as the front enters the area and as mid levels moisten up in its advance. Winds aloft look weak, so storms should once again be slow movers.

The front should sink to the south this weekend, but may still remain close enough for continued shower chances especially toward NYC and Long Island Fri/Sat, with increasing disagreement among the global models as the weekend progresses. ECMWF builds high pressure from eastern Canada down into the area on Sunday while a wave of low pressure passes to the south, which could result in dry/breezy conditions along the coast. GFS maintains more ridging off the coast and allows the front to remain closer or return northward more quickly, perhaps too quickly. Compromised between the two while leaning more toward the ECMWF.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Western Atlantic high pressure will be in control through Tuesday.

Mainly VFR through the forecast period. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible this afternoon and then again Tuesday afternoon, mainly north and west of the NYC terminals. Stratus is likely to develop at GON, with some MVFR visibility at HPN. There is a lower chance for fog/stratus out ISP and BDR.

Away from sea breezes, the flow remains light to start. S-SW flow should increase at all terminals through the afternoon. Speeds around 10 kt for most except JFK which could see sustained winds near 15 kt. S-SW winds diminish tonight before increasing again Tuesday morning.

NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Wind speed could be a few kt higher at times this afternoon.

KLGA TAF Comments: Variable winds through 19z, then S-SW flow around 10 kt with sea breeze. The sea breeze could be delayed until 20z.

KEWR TAF Comments: Wind could stay light out of the SW if sea breeze holds to the east this afternoon.

KTEB TAF Comments: Wind could stay light out of the SW if sea breeze holds to the east this afternoon.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. Tue Afternoon-Tue Night. VFR. Isolated shower or thunderstorm possible in afternoon. Wed-Thu. Chance for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or lower conds. Fri-Sat. Chance of showers and MVFR or lower conditions in shower. Slight chance of thunderstorms.

MARINE. Winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria through Friday night.

HYDROLOGY. Will continue to monitor potential for flooding with the approach of a cold front mid to late week. This threat appears to be isold in nature on Wed as PW increase to near 2 inches while mid/upper levels remain somewhat drier, then greater on Thu as PW rises above 2 inches and entire column moistens up. Slow moving storms could produce heavy rainfall in short order, but with wind fields aloft relatively weak any cell training would depend on mesoscale factors impossible to predict this far out in time.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ005>010. NY . Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ067>075-176>179. NJ . Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002-004-006- 103>108. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . FEB NEAR TERM . FEB SHORT TERM . FEB LONG TERM . FEB/Goodman AVIATION . DS MARINE . FEB HYDROLOGY . Goodman


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi58 min SSW 7 G 8 82°F
44069 31 mi58 min SSW 12 G 14 77°F 74°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 33 mi48 min SW 12 G 14 74°F 73°F1017 hPa72°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 34 mi58 min 73°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 36 mi58 min SW 7 G 11 78°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 40 mi58 min S 11 G 13 72°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY7 mi35 minSSW 72.00 miRain Fog/Mist76°F73°F94%1017.4 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi32 minS 1110.00 miFair87°F71°F59%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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SW9SW6SW7SW6SW7SW7SW6SW7SW5SW4CalmCalmSW44S6S7S9S7S7
1 day agoSE8SE8S7S5S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmSW5SW5SW7S9SW9S8SW8
2 days agoE6E5E3NE7NE8E3E3CalmE4E5E5SE5CalmNE3CalmSE4E3E4SE4NE7NE8N9E5SE9

Tide / Current Tables for South Jamesport, Gt. Peconic Bay, New York
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South Jamesport
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:07 AM EDT     2.45 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:55 AM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:43 PM EDT     2.77 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:33 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.711.522.32.42.421.71.41.10.80.60.91.422.42.72.82.62.21.91.51.1

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:26 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:40 AM EDT     -1.25 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:26 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:52 AM EDT     1.17 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:02 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:16 PM EDT     -1.16 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:04 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.80.3-0.4-0.9-1.2-1.2-1-0.6-0.20.411.210.70-0.6-1-1.1-1.1-0.8-0.5-00.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.