NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Dry and comfortable evening with low humidity. The high clouds in place gradually shifts offshore, allowing clear skies to develop tonight. Forecast remains on track and previous discussion follows.

Cirrus canopy over Long Island and NYC metro should remain in place into tonight, but still it should be mostly clear night.
Diminishing winds and dewpoints in the 50s will promote radiational cooling tonight, especially for the more interior and outlying areas. Low temps tonight will be generally in the 60s around the NYC metro area, across western Long Island and almost most of the CT coast, and in the 50s elsewhere including the Long Island Pine Barrens.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
The weekend should be largely dominated by high pressure. Mostly clear skies are expected, with highs on Sat in the mid/upper 80s, and 85-90 on Sunday, with the warmest readings over NE NJ, NYC and in the interior CT river valley. Dewpoints in the 50s away from any afternoon sea breeze influence closer to the coast mean apparent temps in most places will actually be lower than ambient temps especially on Sat, less so on Sunday as dewpoints start to creep up to the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Can't rule out some patchy ground fog late Sat night mostly across eastern Long Island, SE CT, and the valleys of Orange County, as temps fall to late day dewpoint values.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Key Points:

* Weak low pressure in the Atlantic may brush the region as the system moves inland over New England, potentially bringing increased cloud cover and the chance for rain showers Monday and Tuesday

* More widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms midweek with a frontal system approaching from the west

* Increasing heat and humidity late next week, heat indices may approach or exceed 95F at times across portions of the region

After a relatively quiet few days, a more active pattern begins to take shape in the long term. Lingering energy at the tail of an offshore trough cuts off and meanders over the western Atlantic to start the week as ridging builds over the Northeast.
Global guidance retrogrades the developing surface low back to the west, potentially tracking near Cape Cod or into southern New England. The proximity of the low could increase cloud cover Sunday night through Tuesday, with at least the chance of some associated shower activity brushing the eastern half of the region. Still some uncertainty given weak steering and ridge placement that will need to be resolved, but at this time, impacts appear limited and minor from this system.

Meanwhile, another mid level trough approaches from the west, helping absorb the meandering weak low into Tuesday, as the next shortwave works east. With the ridge in place locally, the associated frontal system will be slow to approach from the west. This will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning Wednesday, though exact time periods and duration will need to be fine tuned as we move closer.

In addition, a warm and increasingly more humid air mass sets up mid to late next week, with daytime temperatures several degrees above normal for Wednesday through Friday. With dew pts returning into the 70s, and air temps in the upper 80s and lower 90s, it's possible heat indices could approach or exceed 95F and trigger heat headlines for portions of the region. Still plenty of time to monitor at this point.

AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure will build in from the west through Saturday, and then move offshore Saturday night. The high remains offshore through the weekend.

VFR.

Winds generally NW 10-15 kt. Kept gusts in TAF but these should finally diminish early this evening. Still a chance that an early evening sea breeze develops along the Connecticut coast and at KJFK, possibly into KISP where winds become more SW.
Outside chance sea breeze makes it to KLGA and KEWR but winds should be less than 10 kt if and when that happens. Winds will be light tonight and become northerly at he NYC metro terminals while the outlying terminals remain light and variable. Better chance of a sea breeze developing around 16z Saturday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts near 15kt at KJFK KEWR, KTEB, KLGA early this evening.

There is a chance of a late day sea breeze at KJFK as indicated in the forecast, although confidence is low.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z Saturday through Sunday: VFR.

Monday: Mainly VFR....MVFR or IFR possible far eastern terminals. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday and Wednesday: Chance of MVFR or lower in scattered showers and thunderstorms. S winds G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Quiet through the weekend with high pressure building from the Great Lakes.

A weak area of low pressure may develop offshore and track near Cape Cod into Monday. This could bring increased swells near 5 ft on the ocean waters early next week.

Otherwise, conditions are expected to remain below small craft advisory criteria on all waters through mid next week.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Gradual subsiding of swell should reduce the rip current risk to low on Saturday, and this likely persists on Sunday, although rip activity could still be locally moderate due to spring tides.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.