Monday, July6, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mamaroneck, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:28AMSunset 8:31PM Monday July 6, 2020 5:48 AM EDT (09:48 UTC) Moonrise 10:01PMMoonset 6:42AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 417 Am Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
Today..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming E late this morning. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers and tstms likely this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this afternoon.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms this evening with vsby locally 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds around 5 kt, increasing to around 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 417 Am Edt Mon Jul 6 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak surface low pressure trough will persist nearby today, before a back door cold front moves across from the east. This front will lift back into the waters on Tuesday, and pass north by Wednesday morning. Weak high pressure will then briefly build in through Thursday. Low pressure will then approach from the south on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mamaroneck village, NY
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location: 40.93, -73.73     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 060843 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 443 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak low pressure trough will persist over the area today, with a back door cold front passing through from the northeast this afternoon. The front will return northward as a warm front on Tuesday, and pass north by Wednesday morning. Weak high pressure will then briefly build in through Thursday. Low pressure will then approach from the south Friday into Saturday, followed by a series of weak fronts moving through the area late this weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As weak low pressure moves E of New England, a back door cold front in its wake will approach from the NE. Before the front passes through, temps should rise to the lower 90s in NYC and NE NJ, and to the mid/upper 80s elsewhere away from most south facing shorelines, with a window of opportunity this afternoon for showers/tstms to develop, as a shortwave trough over S Ontario embedded in NW flow aloft arrives and provides lift. Per 00Z CAM guidance, tstms are most likely this afternoon from NNJ and the NYC metro area and points south/west, with lesser chances farther north into the lower Hudson Valley and southern CT. Combo of MLCAPE as high as 1500-2000 J/kg and undirectional 0-6 km NW bulk shear of about 35-40 kt suggest multicell organization possible, and steep low level lapse rates/relatively dry mid levels could lead to damaging wind gusts and some hail with the strongest cells.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. Chances for showers/tstms should quickly wane this evening via increased stability in the low level air mass behind the back door front as high pressure builds down the New England coast, with mainly dry conditions for late evening/overnight if not sooner. Lows tonight will range from the lower 70s invof NYC, to the mid 60s well inland.

The back door front is expected to return north as a warm front on Tue, slowly through the area into Tue evening. With additional mid level shortwave energy passing across, showers/tstms once again possible, more so across western sections which will be back in the warm sector in the afternoon. Highs will range from the mid 80s from NYC north/west, to the upper 70s/lower 80s for Long Island and southern CT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. The region will lie on the northern edge of broad CONUS ridging through the week. This will be a dirty ridge though, with a weak closed low over the Mississippi River Valley early in the week slowly shearing/lifting toward the area to end the week. Thereafter, models with better agreement of amplifying northern stream troughing approaching/entering the area this weekend, and likely remaining over the area through at least early next week. Before then, a midweek northern stream shortwave moving through S Canada may buckle the ridge enough to provide a trigger for afternoon diurnal convection, particularly Wed.

The warm front is expected to be north of the area by early Wednesday morning, with some indication of an earlier mentioned very weak shortwave/buckling of trough moving through aloft. This may present a trigger for late afternoon/early eve isolated to scattered convection Wed, although the focus is a bit more vague at this point and (higher terrain, perhaps sea breeze boundary). This warm frontal passage and SW flow will have widespread high temps climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s, with widespread heat indices in mid to upper 90s degrees as dewpoints climb into the lower 70s.

Heights continue to build on Thursday, but progress of the earlier mentioned shearing southern closed low will have to be monitored as it potentially starts lifting towards the Mid-Atlantic. Quite a bit of model spread on the evolution of this feature and its associated surface wave/low. At this time this feature appears to be far enough SW/S of the region on Thursday, for another hot and humid day. Although a backing wind flow may keep coastal areas a bit cooler than Wed. Only a conditional potential for some isolated convection off terrain and seabreeze boundaries in a likely unstable, but capped and weakly shear environment. If flow remains from the S/SW widespread temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s likely for Thursday with heat indices of 95-100 possible.

Forecast details become less certain Friday into the weekend, dependent on the evolution of the southern low as it lifts/shears up the coast, but confidence is increasing in a northern stream trough amplifying down through the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and then to the East Coast during this time.

Considerable model spread exists on the southern low tracking up the coast as early as Friday or as late as Saturday Night, as well as whether it track up the coastal plain or offshore, as well as degree of intensification, and whether it acquires any tropical characteristics. NHC is monitoring the southern system for potential tropical or subtropical development this week, giving it a 30% chance over the next 5 days as it potentially emerges off the Carolina coast. Main threat with this low at this point would be a swath of heavy rainfall along its path as it taps into Gulf and subtropical Atlantic moisture, but low confidence on any details.

Better agreement that mean troughing will be sliding towards the east coast through the weekend, with a series of surface troughs moving through the area. Depending on timing of the southern wave, very warm and humid conditions are likely for the weekend, with threat of afternoon convection both days. Each successive trough Sunday into early next week, appears to bring in slightly cooler and drier airmass, but low predictability at this point.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A weak cold front slowly drops south, eventually passing through the terminals toward daybreak Today.

VFR. Variable to light WNW winds overnight give way to late morning/early afternoon sea breezes again on Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon/evening, mainly late in the afternoon. Any storms may briefly reduce conditions to sub-VFR.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. Monday night through Thursday. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly from the NYC metros north/west. Friday. Rain with sub-VFR more likely. Chc E-SE gusts 20-25kt.

MARINE. Sub-SCA conditions expected through mid week. Potential for SCA seas Friday into the weekend with a persistent S/SW flow and strengthening wind fields with a potential coastal low.

HYDROLOGY. Conditional and localized flash flood threat on Tuesday for far SW portions of the Tri-State, if a warm front nears or works into the region and interacts with a building moist and unstable airmass.

A localized urban and poor drainage flooding threat exists with any isolated thunderstorm activity Wed and Thu, as it will be slow moving and able to tap into a very moist environment.

There is potential for more widespread downpour/thunderstorm activity and resultant urban and poor drainage flooding threat during the Friday/Saturday period, but low confidence on details at this timeframe. More details as the week progresses.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. The combination of a SE swell and high astronomical tides (full moon) will have water levels approach minor flood thresholds once again tonight, but they are expected to remain just below minor flood benchmarks.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44022 - Execution Rocks 3 mi48 min ENE 1.9 G 3.9 72°F 72°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 8 mi63 min W 1.9 G 3.9 73°F 1 ft70°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 8 mi54 min ENE 5.1 G 5.1 72°F 1015.5 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 22 mi54 min 75°F 72°F1015 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 26 mi54 min W 7 G 9.9 76°F 1014.7 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 30 mi54 min 75°F 76°F1014.9 hPa
MHRN6 30 mi54 min W 2.9 G 4.1
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 34 mi54 min N 1.9 G 2.9 73°F 69°F1014.4 hPa
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 35 mi54 min WNW 6 G 8.9 76°F 78°F1015.4 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 39 mi28 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 75°F1014.6 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY10 mi1.9 hrsNW 510.00 miFair69°F64°F87%1014 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY13 mi2 hrsN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F62°F51%1014 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY16 mi2 hrsN 010.00 miFair78°F64°F62%1014.3 hPa
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ18 mi2 hrsN 010.00 miFair76°F64°F67%1014 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY19 mi2 hrsN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F71°F88%1014.3 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY22 mi1.9 hrsN 010.00 miFair76°F70°F82%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHPN

Wind History from HPN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS3W5NW5CalmCalm4NW8NW8NW55NW6W4S7CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmW3CalmNW5NW3
1 day agoN3CalmE3NE6NW5N5N7N8N8S6SE4SE5SE7SE8S7S5S4S4S3CalmCalmSE3SE3Calm
2 days agoNW9NW5N7NW7NW8N10NE6NE5N5NW5NW4NW6E13
G18
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Tide / Current Tables for Mamaroneck, New York
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Mamaroneck
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:51 AM EDT     8.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:31 AM EDT     -0.61 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:28 PM EDT     7.53 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:38 PM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.28.47.863.61.60.4-0.5-0.50.93.35.66.97.57.46.34.22.210.40.31.33.55.9

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:04 AM EDT     -0.77 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:17 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:09 AM EDT     1.04 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:23 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:28 PM EDT     -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:45 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:34 PM EDT     1.02 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:48 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-0.8-0.6-0.3-0.10.20.710.80.40.1-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.10.10.40.910.60.2-0

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.