Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rye, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Multiple lows traverse the local region over the next few days, bringing periodic rain.

2) High pressure builds to close out the weekend and moves offshore into early next week, setting up a drying and warming trend.

3) Rain chances increase mid to late week, possible thunderstorms also with a frontal system moving in with potential multiple waves of low pressure.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
Mainly dry conditions expected today with warmer temperatures than the previous day. The NBM temperatures leaned on the warmer side of guidance and with weak high pressure moving offshore this afternoon, this will set up more of a low level SW warm air advection in the low levels. Sea breezes should easily develop along the coastlines, keeping coastal areas cooler. However, expect NE NJ into NYC Metro to be the relatively warmest area today as forecast high temperature there reach the mid to upper 60s. Much of the remainder of the region has forecast high temperatures in the lower 60s.

Tonight through Saturday night will be when we have more chances for rainfall. The main source for the periodic rain will be a closed upper level low on the border of Ontario and Quebec that will eventually get more into Quebec on Saturday. Thereafter, it retrogrades back northwest Saturday night.

There will be two upper level vorticity maxima that will move through, one tonight into early Saturday and the other one Saturday night. At the surface, a weak wave of low pressure moves west to east across the region tonight into early Saturday morning. Another larger area of low pressure then develops off the Carolina coast on Saturday and that low pressure area takes a track southeast of the 40N/70W benchmark while deepening Saturday night into early Sunday.

The rain looks to be light to moderate at most. Any moderate steadier rain looks to be confined to the eastern half of the region Saturday night on the backside of the offshore developing low. Do not expect any hydrologic issues with the rain with no convective rainfall expected. Total rainfall forecast is less than a half inch.

KEY MESSAGE 2
Upper level trough axis shifts east of the region on Sunday, with a gradual ridging trend in heights Sunday night through Monday.

At the surface, high pressure returns, building in from the west Sunday before shifting offshore early next week.

Some gusty NW flow is expected Sunday as low pressure offshore further deepens as it approaches Nova Scotia, steepening the pressure gradient. The center of the high gets closer to the area Sunday night into early Monday, allowing for pressure gradient to relax and winds to lighten.

Warming trend expected Monday into Tuesday with much warmer high temperatures forecast. This will be with a strengthening low level SW flow, helping increase warm air advection.

KEY MESSAGE 3
Another large upper level trough approaches the region for mid to late next week. At the surface, a complex frontal system approaches with potential for multiple waves of low pressure.

The weather pattern shifts to more rain with decreasing average temperatures. In addition, there is the possibility of some thunderstorms as well.

Winds become quite gusty as well with tightening pressure gradient between high pressure offshore and approaching frontal system Tuesday into Wednesday. However, there will likely be some limitations with the low level warm air advection and less favorable mixing environment.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Weak high pressure builds in through today.

VFR.

NW winds overnight tonight. Speeds generally at or below 10 kt.
Sea breeze likely develops this afternoon, with coastal terminals becoming S or SSW.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected through this morning.

Timing of sea breeze (S/SSW) this afternoon could be off by a couple of hours.

Wind direction at EWR today could be around 130 true if the sea breeze gets into the airport.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Tonight - Saturday Night: Chance of MVFR with -SHRA possible at times. Light flow.

Sunday: VFR with NW flow 10-15 kt, G20-25 kt.

Monday: VFR with SW flow 10-15 kt, G20-25 kt.

Tuesday: VFR with S flow 10 to around 15 kt, G20 to around 25 kt.
MVFR or lower possible after 00Z.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub-SCA conditions expected through the first half of this weekend.
Some possible SCA level wind gusts Sunday with otherwise sub-SCA conditions continuing through the rest of the weekend.

Early next week, higher chances for SCA with southerly fetch and gusty winds. Some possibility for gales at times as well for parts of the waters towards middle of next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.