NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Clouds have shifted to the south with the upper trough axis moving to the south and east. Overnight low temperatures is some of the cooler outlying areas were not as low as forecast as clouds moved out a little too late for better radiational cooling.

An upper level trough moved south and east of the region as an amplifying ridge moved into the Great Lakes region. The mid and high clouds that had been over the southern portion of the region have now shifted to the south in response to the trough moving south. The ridge builds slowly eastward through today, as surface high pressure builds toward the northeast and mid Atlantic region. Conditions will be mostly clear with near normal temperatures.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/
An upper level cutoff low develops south of Long Island tonight as the upper ridge and surface high continue to build over the region. The surface low will be deepening south of Long Island.
There is some uncertainty as where the cutoff low will drift, however, the consensus is for the upper and surface low to drift northwestward toward eastern Long Island and the southern New England coast Sunday night into Monday. And with the low moving into the strong ridge, the surface low is expected to weaken and nearly dissipate over New England into upstate New York during Monday. Have maintained chance probabilities across mainly the eastern sections Sunday night into Monday, although these could increase to likely if the consensus remains for the low to approach the region. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals tonight through Monday. Monday will be more humid as dew points rise into the mid 60s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Key Points:

* More widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms midweek with a frontal system approaching from the west

* Increasing heat and humidity late next week, heat indices may approach or exceed 95F at times across portions of the region

The area remains under an upper-level low Monday night and into Tuesday as it pushes northward and becomes reintroduced to the large scale flow. Despite it's departure, additional mid-level energy approaches from the west in series which reinforces and maintains the upper level trough over the area through much of the week. This will result in unsettled conditions with a chance of showers and thunderstorms nearly every day through next weekend.

The best chance for showers and storms appears to be mid-week, generally Wednesday into Wednesday night, as a frontal system pushes a cold front through the area. It's much too early to determine if there will be any hydrologic concerns as models disagree with the progression of the disturbance, but a moist airmass will allow for potentially heavy rainfall in any thunderstorms.

The upper level trough remains in place behind the cold frontal passage with mid-level heights attempting to rise. A surface high pressure over the Western Atlantic will promote a southerly flow which will both advect moisture and warmth into the area. This will likely result in another round of heat index values of 95 to 100 degrees for portions of the area toward the end of the week, particularly Friday and Saturday, but potentially as early as Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A large area of high pressure will track slowly east through this weekend.

VFR.

Winds are either light northerly or remain light and variable through the morning. Winds will then veer around to the SE-S at less than 10kt at the coastal terminals this afternoon as a weakness in the ridge develops. KSWF looks more easterly, but light. Winds return to light and variable tonight and through the Sunday morning push.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of wind shifts may vary by 1-2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: VFR.

Monday: Mainly VFR....MVFR or IFR possible far eastern terminals.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday and Wednesday: Chance of MVFR or lower in scattered showers and thunderstorms. S winds G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Winds and seas remain below small craft advisory criteria on all waters today through mid next week.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
There is a low risk for the development of rip currents at the ocean beaches today through Sunday.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.