Thursday, July16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Laurel, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:32AMSunset 8:22PM Thursday July 16, 2020 11:37 AM EDT (15:37 UTC) Moonrise 2:03AMMoonset 4:47PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 1034 Am Edt Thu Jul 16 2020
Today..SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1034 Am Edt Thu Jul 16 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure north of maine drifts east today. A warm front then approaches tonight, passes through on Friday, and is followed by a cold front Friday night. Weak high pressure will then be in place through early next week with a weak cold front possibly passing through Monday into Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Laurel, NY
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location: 40.95, -72.51     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 161453 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1053 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure north of Maine drifts east today. A warm front then approaches tonight, passes through on Friday, and is followed by a cold front Friday night. Weak high pressure will then be in place through early next week with a weak cold front possibly passing through Monday into Monday night.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. The forecast is on track. Temperatures remain in the mid 70s with highs in the upper 70s expected this afternoon.

A mid level ridge axis shifts through today with surface high pressure shifting east. Subsidence and a stabilizing SE low level flow should prevent any convective showers through the day. The SE flow will also limit the mixing depth and advect cooler ocean waters, so high temperatures will be below normal.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. A mid level shortwave passes to our north this evening with the best source of lift for the time being, and moisture will still be relatively shallow to start, so any shower activity appears to be minimal before midnight and confined to NW of the city. A better chance of showers arrives late at night as moisture deepens ahead of an approaching warm front, which will provide some isentropic lift. Chances however still look confined to mostly north and west of the city. Also cannot completely rule out a thunderstorm as elevated instability shifts in.

A cold front approaches from the NW on Friday, but will be in the process of weakening and dissipating as the flow aloft remains nearly zonal. This will still however act as a focus for moisture convergence, and with increasing CAPE plus some mechanical/synoptic lift from a low-mid level shortwave and upper jet streak, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected. Best chances will be in the afternoon and evening hours. Winds through the mid levels won't be particularly strong, so the threat of severe wind gusts are limited.

The threat of showers and storms ends by late Friday night as the weakening/dissipating front shifts to our south, but we'll be left with a warm and muggy airmass.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at the ocean beaches Friday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Weak high pressure over be over the region during the weekend, keeping us dry both days. The main issue will be the heat and eventual headlines that would be needed. Guidance remains fairly consistent with 850mb temperatures 18-19C on Saturday and around 20C on Sunday and Monday. Inland temperatures will be the highest as a southerly flow will keep coastal areas slightly cooler. Highs all 3 days will be primarily in the 90s, although there is the potential for Monday's highs to be a couple degrees higher than currently forecast if a weak cold front doesn't produce as much showers and/or cloud cover than anticipated. Heat indices on Saturday are expected to be in the lower to mid 90s as dewpoints at the top of the mixed layer would allow for some lowering of surface dewpoints in the afternoon before any southerly flow offsets this at coastal areas. The magnitude of dewpoints mixing out at the surface is lower on Sunday, and probably difficult to do on Monday with higher dewpoints aloft coupled with the potential of moisture pooling along a nearby frontal boundary. For now, forecasting heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s. Heat advisories would eventually therefore be needed for Sunday and Monday, but potentially could be needed for some areas as early as Saturday. The potential of heat warning criteria still exists for Sunday and/or Monday, but as of now is a low chance.

Heat headlines could extend at least into Tuesday as models signal around 19C 850mb temps behind the weak cold front passage Monday into Monday night. Thereafter, a progressive westerly flow will be in place across the northern tier with the next frontal system moving into the region for Wednesday.

AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. High pressure along the Northeastern Seaboard will move slowly eastward through this afternoon. A warm front approaches the region tonight.

VFR this afternoon and much of tonight but clouds will be increasing with a low chance of showers and thunderstorms late towards KSWF. Late tonight, a return of MVFR stratus is forecast.

Winds will be mainly SE 10 kt or less but will increase to near 10-12 kt this afternoon. Gusts 16-20 kt will be possible at times this afternoon. Winds decrease to 5-10 kt and become more southerly tonight.

NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: MVFR timing tonight could be a few hours off.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is YELLOW, which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: MVFR timing tonight could be a few hours off.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: MVFR timing tonight could be a few hours off.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: MVFR timing tonight could be a few hours off.

KHPN TAF Comments: MVFR timing tonight could be a few hours off.

KISP TAF Comments: MVFR timing tonight could be a few hours off.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Friday-Friday night. Chance of SHRA/TSRA with MVFR or lower conditions, highest chances afternoon into evening. Saturday and Sunday. VFR. Sunday Night. Mainly VFR. Slight chance of SHRA/TSRA late N/W of NYC terminals. Monday. Chance of SHRA/TSRA with MVFR or lower conditions, mainly during the afternoon.

MARINE. Waters remain below SCA criteria today and Friday. Winds on Friday may average around 15 kt on the ocean in the afternoon and evening, but gusts should remain below 25 kt.

A weak pressure gradient force is then expected to remain across the forecast waters this weekend through early next week. This and a lack of a significant swell will maintain conditions below advisory criteria through the period.

HYDROLOGY. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and night pose a chance of primarily minor urbanized flooding. Flash flooding cannot be completely ruled out, but does not look likely.

No hydrologic impacts are otherwise anticipated into early next week.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . JC NEAR TERM . DJ SHORT TERM . JC LONG TERM . JC/MET AVIATION . IRD MARINE . JC HYDROLOGY . JC/MET EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 30 mi28 min E 9.7 G 14 68°F 73°F1027.4 hPa60°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 30 mi110 min 68°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 31 mi110 min 74°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 36 mi110 min 69°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 39 mi110 min 73°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY10 mi45 minESE 710.00 miFair72°F59°F64%1027.5 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY21 mi42 minE 610.00 miFair74°F55°F52%1026.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE9E7SE95SE6SE5SE7SE4SE3SE3SE4E5E5E5CalmCalmCalmNE4NE344SE8
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N12NE7NE6NE6NE3NW3CalmE4E3E5E6CalmE4CalmE5NE10NE7NE9
2 days agoS7SW9S8SW10S10SW10
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SW8SW7SW6SW3CalmCalmCalmW4NW5W5NW3NW3NW6NW8NW11NW11NW12NW11

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Long Island Sound, New York
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:43 AM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:28 AM EDT     2.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:40 PM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:44 PM EDT     2.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.510.60.50.81.21.61.9221.81.61.310.70.60.91.522.42.72.82.6

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:20 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:33 AM EDT     0.88 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:29 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:44 AM EDT     -1.29 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:13 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:57 PM EDT     1.33 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:13 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:23 PM EDT     -1.42 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.20.40.80.90.70.3-0.3-0.9-1.2-1.3-1-0.6-0.10.61.21.31.20.90.2-0.6-1.1-1.4-1.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.