Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Laurel, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Periods of rain, mainly light, will come to end from NW to SE tonight with a cold frontal passage.

2) A frontal wave is expected to bring another chance of rain to the area Monday night to Tuesday along with gusty NE winds.

3) A prolonged period of NE gales is possible, especially on the ocean waters, from Tuesday through the end of the week.
There is the potential for high surf, dangerous rip currents, and beach erosion.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
A frontal wave will pass to the east of the area this evening, dragging a cold front across the area. Before that time, expect periods of mainly light rain with an additional to tenth to quarter inch of rainfall. Some of the guidance is hinting at some embedded convection with the frontal wave, but just south of the area. Airmass destabilizes into early this evening, but its questionable as to whether we can get deep enough convection to support thunder. For the time, have kept any mention of thunder to the south across the ocean waters.

Behind the cold front, northerly winds increase tonight with the potential for gusts up to 20 mph. This will persist through the first half of Monday before briefly falling off. There will be some partial clearing Monday, mainly across the Lower Hudson Valley and Connecticut. Model time-height cross sections showing a fair amount of mid and high level clouds.

Lows tonight will be on the warmer side in the mid 50s to lower 60s due to the cloud cover and winds picking up. Highs will through will be close to 5 degrees below normal in the mid 60s to lower 70s.


KEY MESSAGE 2
An anomalously strong high north of the Great Lakes will build east through the week, bleeding south into the Northeast. At the same time, another frontal wave will emerge from the Ohio Valley Monday night, tracking to the south of the area. The question is the strength of the high and how far the rain shield will get into the area. The timing for the rain would be late Monday night into Tuesday afternoon, the drying out from north to south. The best chance for rain will near the NYC/NJ metro, falling off to the north and east. There is decent frontogenetic support. The GFS is the more aggressive of the models in bringing some moderate rain across southern portions of the forecast area with amounts around half an inch or so. There will be a tight gradient from rain to nothing. Thus, this is a low confidence forecast right now.

A tight pressure gradient will reside across the area through the week with a prolonged gusty NE flow. Expect mainly dry conditions from Tuesday night into Thursday with rain chances coming up at the end of the week with the potential for a deepening coastal low to approach the area.

KEY MESSAGE 3
As previously discussed the area will reside between an anomalously strong high to the north and a broad area of low pressure off the Mid Atlantic and Southeast coasts. Late in the week, offshore low pressure interacts with mid latitude energy, rapidly deepening in the Thursday to Friday timeframe. The 06Z operational GFS which was an outlier with the other globals and its own ensemble, now is getting some support from the 12Z ECMWF and EC-AIFS in retrograding the deepening low toward the forecast area. However, there is still little support from the ensembles and the AIGFS at this time. It's complex with the interaction of multiple streams in the polar jet. Definitely something to watch, especially with a prolonged period of NE flow and increasing astronomical tides. High surf, dangerous rips currents, beach erosion, and coastal flooding are all on the table, but much too early to have specific details.

AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A warm front slowly approaches from the south today. A cold front moves across the terminals tonight. High pressure builds in for Monday.

Generally, MVFR to IFR later continues through the first half of tonight. Conditions are expected to gradually improve for the latter half of tonight after the passage of the cold front. VFR conditions return after 08Z in the metro terminals, and between 09-12Z for eastern terminals. Widespread showers continue this afternoon, ending after 08Z in the metro terminals, but likely earlier. In between showers, drizzle is possible.

SE winds around 10 kt shift to a more southerly direction later this afternoon. Tonight, winds will shift to the NW behind the passage the cold front. Gusts to 20 kt are possible Monday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for flight category changes. Showers may end a few hours earlier than forecast.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z Monday THROUGH THURSDAY

Monday afternoon: VFR. N-NE wind gusts near 20 kt.

Tuesday through Thursday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers.
NE wind gusts 20-25 kt Tuesday and 20 to 30 kt Wednesday and Thursday, highest at the coastal terminals.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
SCA is in effect for the ocean waters out to 20 nm from Monday into Tuesday, followed by a gale watch Tue night. The gale watch goes up on the outermost ocean zones (out 20 to 60 nm) beginning Tue afternoon.

An anomalously strong high building across eastern Canada this week and low pressure off the Mid Atlantic and Southeast coasts will result in a prolonged period of strong NE flow from Tuesday through the end of the week. There could be a prolonged period of gales on the ocean waters and possibly the eastern non-ocean waters, especially late in the week depending on the magnitude and track of a coastal low. There is even a small chance at this time for storm force gusts. Preference at this time was to back off on the higher wind gusts of the NBM based on latest model soundings and model consensus absent the NBM bias correction.

Rip Currents: The rip current risk should remain moderate through Monday. Combined seas will build to near 5 ft on Monday, with some long period 2-ft SE swell.

Strengthening NE flow and building seas will likely produce a high rip current risk and high surf, possibly as early as Tue and definitely from Wed through at least Sat. As ocean swells gradually increase to 10-15 ft with periods of about 10-11 seconds, would expect surf heights to become at least half that high given a more longshore current vs direct onshore trajectory.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday afternoon for ANZ350-353-355.
Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon for ANZ380-383-385.