Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Laurel, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Warm today, otherwise dry and seasonable through Saturday.

2) An area of low pressure will bring rain to the area Sunday into Monday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
An amplifying shortwave trough dropping into the Northeast will send a weak cold front across the area this morning. The system is moisture starved, but some CAMs continue to show a sprinkle or brief shower possible. Best chance looks to be across southeast CT, where there will be bit more moisture for the system to work with. Have sprinkles in the forecast, no measurable precipitation is expected.

Thereafter, a few weak surface troughs will rotate through. With each there will be a shot of cold advection and a return to normal temperatures for Friday and Saturday. However, before then, today will be the warmest day with highs getting into the 70s, about 5 degrees above normal.

With high pressure building in and the pressure gradient weakening, a couple of cool nights are expected tonight and Friday night.
Specifically Friday night, with the high centered overhead, radiational cooling conditions should be ideal. Have continued to blend in MOS guidance with the NBM to capture lower temperatures across the interior and LI Pine Barrens. Temperatures should bottom out in the 40s there, with no concern at this time for a frost/freeze.

KEY MESSAGE 2
Hurricane Isaias is forecast to make landfall Friday night into Saturday morning along the eastern Gulf Coast. Refer to the latest official track and intensity forecasts from the National Hurricane Center for additional details.

Remnant moisture from the system then looks to interact with mid-latitude energy, bringing a period of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall across the region Sunday into Monday. The system looks to be progressive enough to spare the region of a more substantial rainfall. In addition, there is not much evidence the system will have much instability work with, albeit precipitable water values of 1.5 to 2 inches. Latest NBM deterministic QPF brings 0.75 to 1 inch over about an 18 hour period. This has trended down over the past 24 hours. The latest 90th percentile NBM shows 1.5 to 2 inches over this 18 hour period, which has also trended lower.

S/SE winds Sunday night may briefly reach 20 to 30 mph along the coast. There is a full moon and coastal locations will need about 1 to 2 ft to reach minor coastal flood benchmarks, which is not expected at this time. This will come into better focus over the next day or so as we get into the window for surge guidance.
Right now, it is looking like a low end event at best.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
High pressure builds in from the west through the remainder of the TAF period.

VFR.

WNW winds with gusts of 20 to 25 kt subsiding in the early evening and speeds under 10 kt towards 00Z this evening. Winds mainly 5 to 10 kt much of the overnight. Winds increase mainly to 10 to 12 kt during the day Friday. Occasional gusts possible, with confidence too low to include in TAFs at this time.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of gusts ending early this evening may be off by an hour or two.

Occasional gusts to 20 kt possible Friday.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Friday: VFR. NW winds, occasional G15-20kt in the afternoon.

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: VFR through the early afternoon. Chance of rain with MVFR/IFR cond developing late, and at night.

Monday: MVFR or lower in rain showers early, VFR likely in afternoon.

Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A Small Craft Advisory remains in affect through 2 PM today for the waters from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point and out 20 NM. 25 kt gusts are expected behind a cold frontal passage, with 3 to 5 ft seas. There is the possibility for other waters to see occasional 25 kt gusts, and if this becomes more frequent the SCA may need to be expanded. 25 kt gusts are then possible again Friday afternoon, but confidence is low at this time.

Thereafter, Small Craft conditions are not expected until early next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350- 353.