Wednesday, April21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Miller Place, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 7:39PM Wednesday April 21, 2021 12:11 AM EDT (04:11 UTC) Moonrise 1:12PMMoonset 3:21AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1112 Pm Edt Tue Apr 20 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night...
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt with occasional gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft after midnight. Showers and chance of tstms in the evening.
Thu..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds around 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely. Winds and waves may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1112 Pm Edt Tue Apr 20 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure south of the waters drifts east tonight as a cold front approaches from the west. Low pressure develops along this front late tonight which then strengthens on Wednesday as the system moves across the region. The low then moves over the canadian maritimes Thursday as high pressure builds to the south and west through Friday, moving offshore on Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Miller Place, NY
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location: 40.95, -73     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 210229 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1029 PM EDT Tue Apr 20 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure moves farther offshore tonight as a cold front approaches from the west. Low pressure develops along this front late tonight, which then strengthens on Wednesday as the system moves across the region. The low then moves over the Canadian Maritimes Thursday as high pressure builds to the south and west. The high will then be in control into the first part of the weekend. A coastal low pressure system brings in the next chance for rain Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. High pressure shifts off shore overnight and a mid-level trough digs deep into the Great Lakes Region toward early tomorrow morning. Overnight, temperatures in and around metro NYC fall to the mid 50s and the outlying suburbs fall to the upper 40s and low 50s. We've left POPs low overnight, but HREF model guidance does show an early morning batch of showers well ahead of the cold front. Breezy along the coastal areas.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. The low pressure wave will lift across Southern New England on Wednesday, dragging the cold front across the region. Strong dynamics with the middle and upper level shortwave, divergence aloft, and convergence along the front will provide deep layered lift. The most organized forcing looks to lie along and just ahead of the frontal boundary. While a few showers cannot be ruled out in the morning, the bulk of the convection will move across the region in the afternoon and evening. SPC has western areas of the CWA in a marginal risk for severe storms. Higher resolution models continue to signal the development of a line of showers and embedded thunderstorms quickly moving across the area from west to east from midday to mid afternoon along and west of the Hudson River, and mid to late afternoon east of the Hudson River. For the areas in the marginal risk have included enhanced wording of gusty winds, as this will be the primary threat. The line should be moving offshore in the early evening. Have followed closely to the simulated reflectivity fields for general PoP timing as the guidance seems to have a relatively good handle the line. The major differences lie in the exact timing.

The amount of destabilization is also a bit uncertain, but model soundings indicate about 500 to 750 J/kg of SBCAPE from around the NYC metro on north and west coinciding with about 35-50 kt of low level flow. Surface based instability drops off to near zero across much of southern Connecticut and central and eastern Long Island due to a stronger maritime low level inversion. However, have mentioned chance of thunder here as well due to the strong dynamics and elevated instability. This should however prevent any severe storms further east as the line encounters the more stable low level air, and thus no enhanced wording across this region. There are no flooding concerns with the line as it will be moving fairly quickly across a given area.

Southerly winds may gusts 20 to 30 mph ahead of the front outside of the line of showers and embedded thunderstorms. Strong cold and dry advection takes places behind the cold front Wednesday evening and Wednesday night. Winds will shift to the W and NW and could gust 25 to 35 mph at night with the strong cold advection. Highs during the day on Wednesday should be in the 60s. If clouds are not as extensive early in the day, the locations away from the coast could warm a few degrees higher than currently forecast.

Temperatures crash behind the front and should drop into the lower to middle 30s by early Thursday morning. The growing season does begin across the interior zones on April 21, and average temperatures across some of these zones are forecast be at freezing or below during this period. After collaboration, have issued a freeze watch for these areas. For those areas dropping to slightly above freezing, strong winds should prevent any frost development, so no frost advisories planned at this time.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Gusty winds continue on Thursday as the low pressure strengthens while moving over the Canadian Maritimes. High pressure also builds to our south and west, creating a strong pressure gradient over the region. W-NW wind gusts 25 to 35 mph are likely, and could reach 40 mph near the coast. There is a low chance for a few gusts up to 45 mph, especially given the deep mixed layer indicated by forecast soundings. Highs on Thursday will be well below normal in the upper 40s inland to the lower 50s near the coast. Winds weaken some Thursday night, but should still remain gusty enough to preclude frost again. Lows will be in the middle to upper 30s for most locations.

High pressure will build to the south and west through Friday and then off the Mid Atlantic coast Saturday.

A progressive, yet amplifying upper trough over the Mississippi Valley on Saturday will move across the area on Sunday. Global models are in good agreement with a strong frontal wave developing over the Carolinas Saturday and passing near or just south of Long Island on Sunday. This would bring rain to the region Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure will then follow early next week.

Temperatures will rebound to normal or even slightly higher through Saturday. Sunday could be cooler depending on how much interaction there is with the northern branch. Generally, stayed close to the NBM, but leaned bit lower for Sunday.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. High pressure tonight, with a cold front passing through during Wednesday afternoon.

VFR tonight through Wednesday morning. Expecting showers and thunderstorms Weds afternoon with cold front moving through. TSTMs most likely 19-21z for the city terminals. MVFR cigs with IFR vsbys possible in TSTMs.

Southerly winds still gusty at the coastal terminals at least through midnight, weakening a little thereafter. Light southerly or variable winds inland. Winds otherwise mostly around 10 kt or less for the late night hours. Southerly winds increase through the day Weds as the front approaches. Should tstms occur, gusts over 40kt possible. Winds still gust 30-35 kt late in the day/evening as they arrive from the NW.

In addition, it's possible that some LLWS occurs now through around 12z Weds with 2000ft winds 45-50 kt arriving from the SW. Winds at this level are expected to prevail at 45 kt during this time.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

No unscheduled amendments expected for tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Thursday. VFR. WNW gusts 25-30kt. Friday. VFR. WNW gusts 20-25kt. Saturday. Mainly VFR, chance of MVFR/IFR in rain at night. Sunday. MVFR/IFR in rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Sub-SCA conditions prevail through tonight, although occasional gusts to 25 kt cannot be ruled out. S flow increases ahead of a strong cold front on Wednesday, with SCA conditions likely on the ocean waters in the morning and on all waters by the afternoon. The cold front moves across the waters by evening. A small craft advisory has been issued for the ocean waters beginning Wednesday morning, and a Gale Warning continues for frequent gusts over 34 knots Wednesday night into Thursday. The SCA on the non ocean waters continues Wednesday night and will continue into Thursday.

Lingering SCA conditions likely on Friday in a gradually diminishing west flow, especially on the ocean. All areas will briefly fall below SCA criteria on Saturday before a coastal low impacts the area late saturday night into Sunday.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are expected through the week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for CTZ005-006. NY . Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for NYZ067-068. NJ . Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for NJZ002. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355. Gale Warning from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-355.

AVIATION . JC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 18 mi72 min SSW 19 G 23 54°F 56°F47°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 18 mi114 min SW 6 G 8.9 56°F 53°F1012.2 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 22 mi72 min S 18 G 21 54°F 46°F3 ft
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 24 mi114 min SW 16 G 19 56°F 54°F1013.7 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 42 mi114 min SW 14 G 17 58°F 1013.2 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi42 min S 18 G 21 47°F1012.9 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY12 mi16 minS 810.00 miFair54°F45°F72%1013.4 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY12 mi16 minSSW 910.00 miA Few Clouds54°F43°F67%1013 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT17 mi20 minSW 1010.00 miFair56°F43°F62%1012.6 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY21 mi19 minSW 910.00 miFair51°F46°F83%1014 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT24 mi19 minSW 310.00 miFair55°F44°F67%1012.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHWV

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmW4W3W3CalmCalmSW4SW8S11S12S11S12S12S14
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1 day agoSW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE33E3S10SE9S11S10S10SW7SW10SW6SW3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3W3NW7NW74W8
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Tide / Current Tables for Mount Sinai Harbor, Long Island Sound, New York
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Mount Sinai Harbor
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:52 AM EDT     1.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:45 AM EDT     5.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:26 PM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:22 PM EDT     5.87 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.31.72.73.955.75.95.54.53.32.21.40.90.91.72.94.25.25.85.75.142.9

Tide / Current Tables for Conscience Bay entrance (Narrows), Long Island Sound, New York
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Conscience Bay entrance (Narrows)
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:38 AM EDT     1.42 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:42 AM EDT     6.61 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:12 PM EDT     0.91 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:19 PM EDT     6.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.52.13.24.55.76.46.664.93.52.31.40.91.22.13.54.85.96.56.45.54.33

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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