Thursday, January23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Miller Place, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:59PM Thursday January 23, 2020 5:32 AM EST (10:32 UTC) Moonrise 7:22AMMoonset 4:47PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 308 Am Est Thu Jan 23 2020
Today..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Sat..E winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Rain.
Sat night..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Rain, mainly in the evening.
Sun..W winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..W winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 308 Am Est Thu Jan 23 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will remain across the area through Friday. Low pressure tracks across the region over the weekend and into the maritimes on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Miller Place, NY
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location: 40.95, -73     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 230805 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 305 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will remain across the area through Friday. Low pressure tracks across the region over the weekend and into the Maritimes on Monday. A cold frontal passage is possible around the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. Ridge remains in place today as mid west trough makes slow eastward progress. A good deal of sunshine is expected, with perhaps some high clouds moving in from time to time. Temperatures look to rebound slightly higher than yesterday, peaking in the 40s. Undercut MOS slightly.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Upper ridge moves east as mid west trough deepens and closes off before barreling toward the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region Friday night.

High clouds should increase through the period, and light winds turn toward the NE, then east as sfc high moves across the Canadian Province of Quebec.

Temperatures fall into the teens and 20s tonight, except in NYC metro, as radiational cooling takes place (mainly clear skies and light winds).

On Friday, temperatures warm through the 40s, perhaps touching 50 in a few spots.

With increasing clouds Friday night along with a freshening east wind, temperatures will be much milder than past nights, remaining in the 30s, except some 20s across the interior.

Any precipitation likely holds off until late at night per 00Z model consensus (rain with a wintry mix possible NW of NYC).

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The models, including the ensembles, are in good agreement with the track and timing of the low over the weekend. The NAM and ECMWF are in particularly good agreement for this far out with the track and intensity of the surface low. Overall, not many changes were required for this cycle. The expectation is still there for a wintry mix at the onset over the interior, then a change to all rain through the day on Saturday as the low passes potentially right over NYC. Less than an inch, if any, of snow is expected over the interior. The main winter threat at this time appears to be mainly freezing rain and sleet before the changeover. If the current track holds, the area looks to be dry slotted by the second half of Saturday night at the latest, with any wrap around likely relegated to areas north and west of the forecast area on Sunday. There is still some time to fine tune the track, so low probabilities were maintained for these periods.

Northwesterly winds on Monday as the low reaches the Canadian Maritimes. A weak surface high is progged to be build in however, so wind gusts below 30 kt before they substantially decrease by evening. The high is likely to keep the area dry on Tuesday, then the GFS suggests a cold frontal passaged with some light snow possible on Wednesday. Not much agreement from the ECMWF, so the forecast was kept dry for now. The NBM with local adjustments was used for the temperature forecast.

AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. High pressure will remain over the area through tonight.

VFR through the TAF period. Light and variable winds become WSW this morning generally under 5 kts.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Friday. VFR. Saturday. MVFR/IFR in rain at the coast, mixed precipitation across the interior likely changing to rain. E winds 10-20G20-25 kt during the day diminish at night. Sunday. MVFR/IFR possible in lingering showers. Rain/snow mix possible in any showers across the interior. Monday. VFR.

MARINE. With persistently light winds over the waters thanks to high pressure, seas remain 1 ft or less. This will continue to be the case today and tonight. Winds then turn to the NE, and east Friday into Friday night. As the waters sit between high pressure to the northeast and an approaching low pressure and frontal system, easterly winds increase quickly Friday night, which will result in building seas.

Gales are possible on Saturday ahead of an approaching low. As the low passes early Sunday, advisory level criteria can be expected on the ocean, and will be possible elsewhere. The ocean may linger at or close to advisory levels through Tuesday, with the remaining waters expected to remain below advisory levels at this time.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are expected through next Wednesday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Minor coastal flooding is likely on Saturday with low pressure approaching from the south. Some of the more vulnerable locations may reach moderate thresholds.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . PW NEAR TERM . PW SHORT TERM . PW LONG TERM . AVIATION . CB MARINE . PW/ HYDROLOGY . PW/ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 18 mi45 min N 1.9 G 2.9 23°F 38°F1028.7 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 24 mi45 min Calm G 1 27°F 37°F1028.5 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 31 mi48 min W 3.9 G 5.8 32°F 26°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 39 mi48 min WNW 3.9 G 3.9 32°F 32°F26°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 42 mi45 min S 2.9 G 4.1 30°F 37°F1029.9 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi43 min 5.8 G 9.7 40°F 45°F2 ft1029.4 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY12 mi97 minN 08.00 miFair20°F16°F85%1029.1 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY12 mi97 minN 08.00 miFair22°F18°F85%1028.8 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT17 mi41 minNNW 310.00 miFair23°F17°F78%1029.1 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY21 mi40 minN 010.00 miFair11°F8°F88%1029.8 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT24 mi40 minN 09.00 miFair17°F12°F84%1028.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHWV

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmNW5N10N53CalmW5NW5SW3S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Mount Sinai Harbor, Long Island Sound, New York
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Mount Sinai Harbor
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:07 AM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:22 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:05 AM EST     6.48 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:47 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:45 PM EST     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:57 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:36 PM EST     5.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.12.91.60.5-00.31.434.65.96.56.25.23.82.20.8-0.2-0.40.21.53.14.65.55.6

Tide / Current Tables for Conscience Bay entrance (Narrows), Long Island Sound, New York
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Conscience Bay entrance (Narrows)
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:53 AM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:22 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:02 AM EST     7.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:48 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:31 PM EST     -0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:57 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:33 PM EST     6.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.431.50.3-00.61.93.65.36.77.26.85.642.20.6-0.4-0.40.51.93.65.26.26.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.