Sunday, August9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Miller Place, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 7:59PM Sunday August 9, 2020 4:00 PM EDT (20:00 UTC) Moonrise 11:10PMMoonset 11:36AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 110 Pm Edt Sun Aug 9 2020
This afternoon..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms. Chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 110 Pm Edt Sun Aug 9 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak high pressure remains over the area today. The high becomes a part of the western atlantic high pressure Monday, which then dominates through the middle of the week. A cold front nears the waters on Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Miller Place, NY
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location: 40.95, -73     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 091709 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 109 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

SYNOPSIS. Weak high pressure will remain over the area today, then merge with high pressure over the western Atlantic, which will then dominate through mid week. A slow moving cold front will begin to approach on Wednesday, move into the area Wednesday night into Thursday, then stall to the south on Friday. The front may sink farther south on Saturday as stronger high pressure starts to build out of eastern Canada.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. The forecast remains on track. Weak high pressure will remain over the region today. Forecast models are indicating a shortwave moving across New England this afternoon. This shortwave along with sea breeze convergence may spark a few isolated showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon. Will continue to carry some slight chance PoPs across southern Connecticut, along with eastern Westchester and eastern Putnam as well as northern half of Long Island.

Temperatures today are expected to climb into the middle and upper 80s for most of the CWA, with lower 80s closer to the coast. This will be the first day of a warming trend across the region as the air mass moderates and warm air advects into the region from the west.

There is moderate risk of rip current at the ocean beaches today due to a long period 2-3ft swells.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. As the shortwave moves east of the area tonight, upper ridging will builds further into the area into Monday. The weak surface high will merge with a larger Western Atlantic high pressure, with heat and humidity expected to return for the first half of the new work week. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s to low 90s across the NYC metro and interior, with middle and upper 80s elsewhere. Heat index values will come close to 95 across NE NJ, staying just below in the NYC metro, with heat indices near 90 elsewhere.

Forecast guidance is indicating there may be a few showers or thunderstorms mainly north of NYC Monday afternoon. Will introduce some slight chance POPs across the Lower Hudson Valley and southern CT.

Warm and humid conditions continue Monday night with the ridge over the region.

There is moderate risk of rip current at the ocean beaches on Monday due to a long period 2-3ft swells.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Weather features across the Northeast will be slow moving during much of this time frame, with the area sandwiched between a slow moving closed low moving from Ontario into Quebec, and an upper ridge over the western Atlantic. A developing omega block over Canada will further slow progression going into late this week.

Before a slow moving cold front begins to approach on Wed, we will have to contend with heat relates issues Tue into Wed, with widespread lower/mid 90s for highs on Tue, which along with dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s should yield heat index values 95-100 away from south facing shores. High temps and fcst heat index values are more marginal on Wed despite higher dewpoints with the approach of the front, but could be underdone if there is more sunshine and/or positive low level theta-e advection ahead of the front. Shower/tstm chances will be confined mostly to the interior well NW of NYC.

The front will be slow to move through Thu into Fri, with less in the way of heat issues (mid 90s heat index values only in urban NE NJ) and more in the way of convection, with some potential for flooding, See Hydrology section for details.

The front will take some time to clear the area. Because of this it remain uncertain whether Sat will be dry despite high pressure starting to build out of eastern Canada, so maintained chance PoP for most of the area.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. High pressure over the terminals today shifts to the Western Atlantic tonight into Monday.

Mainly VFR through the forecast period. However, there is a chance for IFR or MVFR near the coast. The highest chance for seeing low conditions is at GON. Have left out of the TAF at ISP, JFK, and BDR for now as the stratus will likely stay to the east of these terminals.

S-SW flow this afternoon around 10 kt, slightly higher at JFK. A SE sea breeze is still possible at KEWR after 19z. Winds diminish tonight before becoming W-SW Monday morning under 10 kt. Sea breezes are likely late morning into the afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. Mon Afternoon-Tue. VFR. MVFR or lower stratus/fog possible for eastern terminals at night. Isolate shower or storm NW of NYC possible in afternoon. Wed-Fri. Increasing chance for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or lower possible.

MARINE. A weak pressure gradient in place through early next week will lead to winds and seas below SCA criteria.

HYDROLOGY. There appears to be some potential for flooding Thu into Fri, with a slow moving cold front Thu into Fri. PW increasing to over 2 inches and flow aloft aligning more with the approaching front could lead to tstms capable of producing heavy rain, as well as training cells especially Thu afternoon/evening. Still lots of uncertainty here as frontal timing would have have to coincide with peak daytime heating/instability to realize this potential.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44069 18 mi60 min SSW 12 G 14 75°F 72°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 18 mi66 min S 9.9 G 14 81°F 76°F1017.6 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 24 mi66 min S 8 G 11 80°F 78°F1017.6 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 31 mi75 min SW 5.8 G 9.7 82°F 71°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 39 mi60 min S 12 G 16 82°F 73°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 42 mi66 min SW 15 G 18 81°F 1018.7 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi50 min S 12 G 14 75°F1018.7 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY12 mi64 minS 1110.00 miA Few Clouds81°F71°F72%1018.8 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY12 mi64 minSSW 1210.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F71°F69%1018.5 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT17 mi68 minS 1210.00 miFair86°F68°F55%1018 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY21 mi67 minSW 910.00 miFair81°F71°F72%1019.5 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT24 mi67 minSSE 1210.00 miFair85°F73°F70%1018.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHWV

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS85S6S7S5S3CalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5S6W5SW7S8SW9S9S11
1 day agoSE5E33CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE54SE7SE10SE6
2 days ago--------------------------------------Calm33--5

Tide / Current Tables for Mount Sinai Harbor, Long Island Sound, New York
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Mount Sinai Harbor
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:39 AM EDT     5.78 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:07 AM EDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:03 PM EDT     6.03 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:38 PM EDT     0.92 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.43.74.85.65.75.24.231.91.10.8123.44.75.665.74.93.72.61.711

Tide / Current Tables for Conscience Bay entrance (Narrows), Long Island Sound, New York
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Conscience Bay entrance (Narrows)
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:36 AM EDT     6.43 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:53 AM EDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:00 PM EDT     6.71 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:24 PM EDT     1.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.94.35.56.36.45.74.53.221.10.91.32.545.36.36.76.35.342.71.71.11.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.