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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 607 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Today..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

ANZ300 607 Am Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. An area of low pressure across northern new england today will gradually weaken and push offshore by this evening. Weak high pressure will then build in tonight through Tuesday, eventually dissipating as low pressure develops well south and east of the area on Wednesday. Weak high pressure returns for Thursday and Thursday night. This high moves offshore Friday into the start of the weekend. A strong frontal system approaches on Sunday.

FXUS61 KOKX 041127 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 627 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
An area of low pressure across Northern New England today will gradually weaken and push offshore by this evening. Weak high pressure will then build in tonight through Tuesday, eventually dissipating as low pressure develops well south and east of the area on Wednesday. Weak high pressure returns for Thursday and Thursday night. This high moves offshore Friday into the start of the weekend. A strong frontal system approaches on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Any lingering fog and low clouds across southeast CT will dissipate within the next 1-2 hours as west winds strengthen and bring drier air into the area.

Weakening low pressure across northern New England today works offshore by early this evening. This will keep the area under a westerly flow, which will gust up to 20 mph at times. Multiple shortwaves in the polar branch of the jet will work off the Mid Atlantic coast in coming days. The first passes to the south later this afternoon into tonight. While there will not be much impact from this system, associated upper jet energy will allow for an increase in mid and high clouds later this morning into this afternoon with skies becoming mostly cloudy. A dry subcloud layer should inhibit any precipitation, but perhaps a sprinkle.
Highs will top out in the upper 40s to lower 50s, which is few degrees above normal.

For tonight, skies will clear in the evening with continued weak cold advection behind the departing shortwave trough. Winds will stay up enough to limit strong radiational cooling, with lows generally in the 30s, right around normal.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Weak high pressure builds in from the west on Tuesday with a diminishing NW flow and highs a few degrees below normal in the 40s. An amplifying shortwave trough across the Great Lakes and Midwest on Tuesday tracks toward the eastern seaboard Tuesday night and offshore on Wednesday. Once again, jet energy associated with the trough will send some mid and high level clouds back into the area Tuesday, persisting through much of the period. Offshore low development takes place off the Mid Atlantic coast late Tuesday into Wednesday, staying well south and east of the forecast area. Guidance is depicting some light precipitation Tuesday night and Wednesday along the New England coast in a strengthening northerly flow. This is likely in response to much colder air working across the warmer marine waters. It's possible that far eastern areas like SE CT and eastern LI see a few rain and/or snow showers, but thinking is this likely stays to the south and east. The bigger issue will be much colder air arriving into the region with lows Tuesday night generally at or below freezing except for the NYC metro, with highs on Wednesday in the upper 30s to lower 40s. This is about 5 to 8 degrees below normal.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A low develops off of the Carolina coast on Wednesday, by Wednesday night it strengthens as it tracks east, out to sea. The increasing pressure gradient to the south may lead to stronger winds for southern portions of the CWA Wednesday night, decreasing into Thursday as the low treks farther away.

Surface high pressure builds in from the southwest on Thursday with a ridge aloft moving in from the west. This will help usher in warmer air in low-levels with gradual warm air advection each day into the start of the weekend. On Thursday, we will be in the left exit region of a jet streak to our northwest then transitions to the right entrance region of this jet streak as it passes to our east on Friday. This increase in synoptic lift along with periods of increased moisture in the low levels and warm air advection will likely mean partly cloudy skies prevail through Saturday, despite the building high pressure. Warm air advection will help lift temperatures back to above average by Friday/Saturday with highs in the upper-40s/low-50s on Friday and in the low/mid-50s on Saturday.

A textbook Colorado low will develop over the Central Plains Friday into Saturday before growing in size as it tracks Northeast. This low will pass through the eastern Great Lakes with a strong cold front along with it approaching from the west. This cold frontal passage is expected late Sunday. Ahead of the cold front, you can expect SW winds on Saturday to shift south on Sunday and increase ahead of the front. This will also increase high temperatures for Sunday, expected to be in the mid-50s. A line of rain will pass along with the front late on Sunday with no wintry precip currently expected due to the strong prefrontal warming. Sunday night, after the frontal passage, some lingering light precip is possible as temperatures begin to cool.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Low pressure lingers over New England today as high pressure slowly builds in from the west.

Flight categories are expected to be VFR for today and tonight.
No more rain expected.

W and WNW 10-15 kts expected today, with occasional 15-20 kt gusts. WInds drop below 10 kts tonight.

...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Moderately confident TAF sites will stay VFR, but still a chance for MVFR 18Z-00Z Monday.

Gusts may be occasional this afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Night-Tuesday VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. N-NW winds G15-20kt afternoon into night near the coast.

Thursday-Friday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
SCA conditions develop in a strengthening westerly flow this morning on the ocean waters. Generally looking at marginal conditions through tonight with G20-25kt and seas of 3 to 5 ft.
Elsewhere, gusts will be closer to 20kt. High pressure builds in Tuesday with decreasing winds and seas. Low pressure development well south and east of the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday will result in a strengthening northerly flow with the potential for marginal SCA conditions developing Wednesday afternoon/night.

Mainly below SCA conditions forecast for all waters Thursday through Friday. SCA conditions become more probable for ocean waters Friday night with 5 foot waves currently forecasted on the the eastern ocean zones.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic impacts expected through the end of the week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.

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Mount Sinai Harbor
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Mon -- 03:59 AM EST     5.54 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:27 AM EST     1.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:22 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:15 PM EST     5.56 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:24 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:52 PM EST     0.90 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:20 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mount Sinai Harbor, Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet

Conscience Bay entrance (Narrows)
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Mon -- 03:56 AM EST     6.16 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:13 AM EST     1.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:22 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:12 PM EST     6.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:24 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:38 PM EST     1.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:21 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Conscience Bay entrance (Narrows), Long Island Sound, New York, Tide feet

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