Saturday, July11, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Poquott, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:29AMSunset 8:26PM Saturday July 11, 2020 5:51 PM EDT (21:51 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 11:50AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 432 Pm Edt Sat Jul 11 2020
Tonight..SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms this evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early this evening.
Sun..SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Tue..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..N winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..N winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 432 Pm Edt Sat Jul 11 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will move across late tonight into early Sunday and will weaken. Another cold front approaches Monday and moves across Monday night. A weak cold front pushes south of the waters on Tuesday. Surface high pressure builds behind Wednesday then shifts over the atlantic Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poquott village, NY
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location: 40.95, -73.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 112042 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 442 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will move across late tonight into early Sunday and will weaken. Another cold front approaches Monday and moves across Monday night. Shortwave over New England exits to the east Tuesday as a weak cold front pushes south. Surface high pressure builds behind Wednesday then shifts over the Atlantic Thursday. Trough and surface boundary approach southern New York Friday then stalls over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Convection has developed along a pre-frontal trough this afternoon. The southerly low level flow veers to more southwesterly flow several kilometers above the surface. Bulk shear 0-6km around 25-30 kt with forecast surface CAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. Max values of both expected between 18 and 00Z, so likely around 21Z. Layer precipitable waters of around 2 inches with greatest low level Theta-E advection late this afternoon. Greatest downdraft CAPE conveyed by models to arrive late this afternoon into early this evening, highest areas across western parts of the forecast region.

The main focus area is more towards the Lower Hudson Valley as clouds have kept temperatures relatively cooler and therefore more stable towards NYC and to the east.

Gusty winds, heavy rain, and small hail will be possible with thunderstorms. There will be small chances of severe thunderstorms, mainly due to damaging winds, as well as flash flooding for a few particular thunderstorms.

High surf of 4 to 7 ft and dangerous rip currents are expected today.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/. Main feature going into early this evening will be the MCV approaching from the west. This feature will lift to the northeast through central and northern New England tonight. The MCV is tied to a mid level vort max that will take a similar track. This will help bring a cold front across at the surface late tonight. Winds will switch from more southerly to more westerly flow behind the front.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to diminish rather quickly this evening with both the loss of diurnal instability and upper level forcing. Mesoscale models agree with this general evolution of convection.

A gradual decrease in clouds is forecast tonight. The more westerly flow will provide a decrease in dewpoints late tonight into early Sunday, making for less humid conditions.

For Sunday, the region will be in between shortwaves aloft. The cold front at the surface will move farther east of the region. Another cold front begins to approach the area late from the west. Westerly flow will make for both a warmer day as there will be more sun but also a relatively less humid day as dewpoints lower. This will be a function of the adiabatic mixing within the boundary layer as drier mixes down to the surface. The max temperatures are in the mid 80s to lower 90s with heat indices in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

A high risk of rip currents continues for Atlantic Ocean beaches on Sunday, with continued 5-6 ft swell at 8-9 sec period.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. For Sunday night, the cold front will continue to approach from the west. Clouds increase late with a return of a chance of showers and thunderstorms late at night. There will be a trough approaching from the west. Flow becomes more southerly Sunday night into Monday. The cold front moves in Monday with higher chances of showers and thunderstorms with the increase in temperatures and therefore increase in instability during the day. Highs are forecast in the low to upper 80s and dewpoints are forecast in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Heavy rain possible with some thunderstorms as precipitable waters increase to around 1.75 inches with more southerly flow in the atmospheric column. Training of cells possible also with parallel flow from low to upper levels.

Convection coverage lowers Monday night as the cold front moves east of the region and weak high pressure starts to build in from the west. Forecast lows Monday night are mainly in the lower 60s to upper 60s.

Upper level shortwave over New England pivots through New York Tuesday as this happens a weak cold front pushes south. Model guidance indicates isolated to scattered showers could be possible along the boundary in the late morning/afternoon hours mainly for the Lower Hudson Valley and southern Connecticut. Afternoon highs should hold in the upper 80s with partly cloudy skies.

By the evening the surface boundary dries out southern New York dropping precipitable water values below 0.75 inches. This coupled with subsidence caused by the exiting trough should lead to rain/cloud free conditions through the late evening. Temperatures could drop off into the low 70s/ upper 60s overnight due to the clear skies.

Wednesday and Thursday are dominated by a ridge building into the Northeast. The ridge flattens somewhat Friday into Saturday but there are some more model differences here with varying amplifications of 500mb height. At the surface, more of a Bermuda high begins to set up. This will mark a return of warm and humid conditions. Forecast max heat indices increase slightly during the period from mid to upper 80s to more in the low to mid 90s.

A moderate to high rip current risk will likely continue into early next week.

AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. A weak cold front approaches from the west this afternoon.

MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities continue at KISP and KGON due to a persistent low cloud bank. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions expected this afternoon outside of any showers and thunderstorms. These could allow for a brief return of MVFR or lower conditions for all terminals. TSRA activity continues north and west of NYC terminals, and is expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and early evening, 21-00Z, into NYC terminals. Areas east of NYC terminals are uncertain with respect to thunderstorm development given the persistent low clouds, but not enough confidence to leave out of TAFs at this time.

Southerly flow through the afternoon and evening, with gusts to 15-20 kt during the afternoon. Any gusts should diminish this evening, with winds shifting to the WSW overnight.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Sunday and Monday. Continued chance mainly afternoon SHRA/TSRA, with MVFR or lower conditions possible. Tuesday and Wednesday. VFR. Thursday. VFR with chance of afternoon SHRA/TSRA with MVFR or lower conditions possible.

MARINE. SCA on the ocean remains through Sunday night with seas of 5-6 ft. This will be mainly due to seas as wind gusts are marginal with gusts near 25 kt going into this evening with otherwise gusts near 20 kt. The 5 ft ocean seas could linger Monday into Monday Night before subsiding below 5 ft Tuesday. Sub-SCA conditions are forecast for all waters thereafter through Thursday night. Non-ocean waters remain below SCA through the entire forecast period.

HYDROLOGY. Localized urban and poor drainage flooding threat persists into early this evening and this is mainly in the Northeast NJ to Lower Hudson Valley area. There is a low risk of flash flooding as well considering some these areas received significant rainfall yesterday.

Otherwise, no significant widespread rain expected through next Saturday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Potential for beach flooding and beach erosion continues into this evening during the times of high tide.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. High Surf Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.



SYNOPSIS . JM/DJ NEAR TERM . JM SHORT TERM . JM LONG TERM . JM/DJ AVIATION . DBR MARINE . JM/DJ HYDROLOGY . JM/DJ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . NV EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 16 mi58 min S 9.9 G 14 74°F1004.1 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 25 mi58 min SSE 9.9 G 14 75°F1004.3 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 27 mi82 min S 7.8 G 14 79°F 1 ft72°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 35 mi67 min SSE 12 G 16 80°F 74°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 38 mi58 min SW 17 G 20 1004.5 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi32 min S 16 G 19 1005 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY10 mi56 minS 121.50 miFog/Mist76°F73°F94%1004.8 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY15 mi56 minSSW 127.00 miOvercast76°F71°F85%1005.4 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT16 mi60 minS 810.00 miFair80°F72°F76%1004.5 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY23 mi59 minS 1310.00 miFair80°F72°F76%1004.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS10S10SE7SE5E4E4E4E5E5SE4E5E5E6E6E9E9E10E9
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2 days agoSW10SW6S7SW8SW6S8SW9SW7SW6SW5CalmCalmSW4SW4SW6S4S7S8S8SE10S9SE8S10S10

Tide / Current Tables for Port Jefferson, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Stratford Shoal, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stratford Shoal
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:10 AM EDT     6.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:28 AM EDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:40 PM EDT     6.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:58 PM EDT     1.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.33.64.85.96.46.15.23.92.71.60.90.91.734.45.66.46.55.94.83.62.41.51.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.