Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Poquott, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 7:44PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 4:28 AM EDT (08:28 UTC) Moonrise 10:56PMMoonset 11:44AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 401 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms this morning, then showers and tstms likely this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely with chance of tstms in the evening, then chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms in the evening. Chance of showers.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 401 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will slowly approach the waters through Thursday, passing Thursday night. High pressure builds in behind the front through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poquott village, NY
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location: 40.95, -73.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 210818
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
418 am edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will slowly approach through Thursday. The front
moves across and southeast of the region Thursday night. The
front will move farther southeast of the region Friday into the
weekend as high pressure builds in from the north. Weak low
pressure areas and a frontal system approach early into the
middle next week.

Near term through tonight
Several hazards today. The first is the severe threat, which right
now looks to be focused on the afternoon and evening. Heat and
humidity will result in an unstable airmass, with surface based cape
approaching 3000 j kg at times. Gently falling heights could trigger
activity at any time, but the best focus is after 18z when a
shortwave approaches. This will enhance both lift and shear,
allowing for better organization of cells. The primary threat will
be damaging winds, but 0-1 km EHI in the 1-3 range and veering low
level winds supports an isolated tornado threat. There is also a
hail threat is the best organized storms.

Limiting factors for convection will be any activity prior to the
peak threat time working over the atmosphere or limiting
instability. This is entirely possible with CIN eroding quickly this
morning and falling heights.

The second hazard is heat. Dewpoints are already overperforming,
with islip at 76 this morning. In addition, it does not seem likely
that conditions will improve before the cold front comes through,
which is not until Thu night. Based on this, a heat advisory was
issued for nyc and the adjacent portions of nj and long island. It
is possible that this advisory will need to be expanded based on
what happens today what is expected on thu, as many areas are just
forecast to remain below the 95 degree heat index threshold.

There is the potential that areas in the advisory fall short today
and therefore need to be canceled for thu. Widespread convection
could impact MAX heat indices today.

The third hazard is a high rip current risk. It will primarily be
moderate today, but late this afternoon and evening southerly flow
builds seas to around 5 ft, requiring the issuance of a high risk.

Finally, there is an isolated flash flood risk where the heaviest
storms concentrate. This will likely be near boundaries with storm
motion otherwise east around 10 kt.

The precipitation is expected to wind down from west to east
late this evening as the upper support exits. There could be
some patchy fog late with a residual moist environment.

Short term Thursday
The models have backed off on thunderstorm chances for the bulk of
thu, but with the cold front still on the doorstep, at least slight
chances have been retained, particularly in the afternoon. Dewpoints
are modeled to be a bit lower with more of a westerly component to
the wind. However, the models have been a bit low in general, so as
previously mentioned a more humid forecast has been issued.

There is a moderate rip current risk for thu.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Upper trough moves near and eventually northeast of the region
Thursday night into start of weekend. Upper level ridging moves
across for the weekend into early next week. Solution consistent
between GFS and canadian models but ECMWF model breaks off a piece
of the trough and keeps it near region as weak upper level low for
the weekend. For next week, the ridge eventually moves east of the
region with a weak trough approaching from the west.

At the surface, the cold front will be within the region to start
Thursday night and by Friday morning should be southeast of long
island. The front will continue moving southeast of long island
going into the weekend. GFS and canadian models likewise show a more
steady front movement southeast of long island while ECMWF shows a
little slower movement and closer proximity of low pressure to the
region along the front.

For weather, a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms
Thursday evening but would expect thunder chances to decrease with
the more northerly flow developing behind the front and overall
instability trending downward. Showers chances linger into Friday
morning. Then, dry conditions are forecast for the much of the
weekend. Depending on how low pressure trends along the front to the
south and a frontal system approaching from the west going into
early to middle of next week, there could be a return to rain in the
forecast. Currently, it seems this scenario is more of a low end
possibility, so limited rain to slight chance, with mainly dry
conditions anticipated.

Temperatures overall forecast to be slightly below normal.

Aviation 09z Wednesday through Sunday
A warm front passes this morning. A trough of low pressure develops
this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front, with showers and
thunderstorms becoming likely.

MainlyVFR this morning, except MVFR or even ifr in patchy stratus,
or an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Coverage of showers and
thunderstorms will increase this afternoon, with MVFR or ifr
possible in any thunderstorm. Thunderstorm chances diminish later
this evening.

Southerly winds will be less than 10 kt early this morning,
with winds light and variable at the outlying terminals. Winds
increase to 10 to around 15 kt late this morning, with gusts to
around 20 kt possible at the nyc terminals during the
afternoon. Winds lighten from the SW this evening.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 16 mi64 min N 2.9 G 4.1 73°F 78°F1015.9 hPa
44069 17 mi58 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 77°F 80°F76°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 25 mi58 min SSE 2.9 G 5.1 74°F 77°F1015.8 hPa
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 38 mi58 min SW 8 G 8.9 76°F 75°F1016.8 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi38 min SSW 7.8 G 7.8 77°F 76°F2 ft1016.3 hPa (-1.1)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY10 mi32 minSW 66.00 miFog/Mist76°F75°F100%1016.1 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY15 mi32 minSSW 55.00 miFog/Mist76°F73°F94%1016.3 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT16 mi36 minN 010.00 miOvercast75°F69°F82%1016.2 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY23 mi35 minSW 58.00 miOvercast76°F73°F94%1016.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN4N5N4N3N6N8N7N9NE6N6CalmS8SW7S9S8S5S6S4S4S3S4Calm
1 day agoS4SW5SW7W8SW4W3SW6SW4SW5S8S7S7SW10S9S13--SW13SW4SW6CalmCalmS3SW3Calm
2 days agoCalmSW7NW3CalmCalmW3CalmSW5SW4SW74S86S11S12S11SW9SW12SW11SW7CalmE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Port Jefferson, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Stratford Shoal, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stratford Shoal
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:17 AM EDT     6.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:27 AM EDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:40 PM EDT     6.89 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:00 PM EDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:55 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.44.85.96.56.35.442.61.50.90.91.73.14.65.96.76.86.24.93.42.11.20.91.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.