Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Poquott, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:25PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 7:39 AM EST (12:39 UTC) Moonrise 5:14PMMoonset 7:19AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 620 Am Est Wed Dec 11 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 pm est this evening through late tonight...
Today..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W early this afternoon, then increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 1 ft or less. Snow this morning, then slight chance of snow early this afternoon. Vsby less than 1 nm, increasing to 1 to 3 nm late this morning and early afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
Sat..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Rain.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
ANZ300 620 Am Est Wed Dec 11 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak wave of low pressure passes offshore this morning. Arctic high pressure then builds across the waters late today into Thursday. The high shifts offshore Thursday night with low pressure approaching from the south Friday. This low passes through on Saturday with high pressure returning on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poquott village, NY
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location: 40.95, -73.08     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 111149 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 649 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

SYNOPSIS. A weak wave of low pressure passes offshore this morning. Arctic high pressure then builds across the region late today into Thursday. The high shifts offshore Thursday night. A low pressure system approaches from the south Friday. Rainfall becomes likely late Friday and overnight with an all day rain event expected through Saturday. The low exits to the northeast late Saturday into Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Main band of snow is moving through fairly quickly this morning. One last band of snow developing off to our south and west should move in quickly this morning, especially from NYC metro on east, should fill back in briefly. The snow should end in the NYC metro 9am to 10am and further east 10am to 11am.

Snowfall amounts have been highest across interior southern CT where Danbury received 3" so far and 2.5" in Portland CT. Travel is hazardous even where snow is not accumulating on roads due to temperatures at the surface right around freezing. Will continue with the winter weather advisory since the morning commute is underway. An SPS remains until 9 am further NW across the interior of the Lower Hudson Valley and Northeast New Jersey.

500 mb shortwave energy continues to provide PVA aloft in combination with upper divergence from a 170-180 kt jet streak to our NW. The region will lie in the right entrance of the jet, which favors large scale lift and supports the precipitation we are currently observing. HRRR soundings indicate significant lift in a saturated dendritic growth zone especially across Long Island and southeast Connecticut for the next few hours.

Additional accumulations west of NYC may be limited with another half inch possible in the NYC metro. Another inch or two is possible further east across Long Island and southeast Connecticut with last remaining bands of snow. The snow should taper off from west to east quickly this morning ending across the forks of Long Island around 11 am. Clouds will gradually clear into the afternoon, but some locations especially near the coast may remain mostly cloudy. Highs will generally be in the middle and upper 30s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/. A strong arctic high pressure builds into the region tonight and will settle over the northeast on Thursday. Most models have the high around 1040 mb as it settles overhead on Thursday. Upper trough axis swings across New England tonight with heights gradually rising on Thursday. NW winds will increase and gust 20-25 mph Wednesday night with clearing skies. Dry and cold conditions Wednesday through Thursday. Lows will fall into the teens inland and lower and middle 20s near the coast tonight. Wind chills will be in the teens. For Thursday, highs will be in the lower and middle 30s. Winds will be light with the high pressure overhead.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. Surface high continues to shift offshore Thursday night allowing for southerly winds to advect in moisture and comparatively warmer conditions headed into the latter part of the week. Overhead cloudiness returns to the Lower Hudson Valley and temperatures rise into the mid 40s for the day Friday.. There is a slight chance of warm frontal showers in the late morning with rain chances increasing into the late afternoon and overnight hours. These showers are associated with a deepening low pressure system off the Carolina coast. Southwest to northeast upper level flow over the eastern seaboard will spur this low north off the coast of Long Island through the overnight hours Friday into Saturday. Model soundings show the sub-tropical airmass has precipitable water values between 1.00-1.20 inches which will provide ample moisture for the expected rainfall. Timing has the majority of the rain falling for the NYC metro and surrounding areas in the overnight hours then lingering through the day Saturday. Rainfall totals around 1 to 2 could cause some instances of nuisance flooding in pour drainage areas.

Upper level trough axis pivots across New York state Sunday as a drier and more stable airmass moves into the region. Clouds clear out and temperatures are again the in mid 40s. Though overnight with the northwest winds, lows will fall near freezing around the city with areas north expected to be in the upper 20s prior to sunrise. High pressure builds Monday with more clear skies. This is short lived as an upper level jet stream of 150 kts over New England quickly transits the ridge axis eastward. The next low pressure system of note enters the Ohio River valley Tuesday morning. Global models show the possibility of mixed precip ahead of the system, but regardless could likely see another all day rain event for Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A cold front has move southeast of the area with some left over snow expected this morning. High pressure builds into the region this afternoon.

Snow will gradually taper off from west to east through 15-16z this morning. Flight categories will vary a bit as the precipitation comes to an end. Generally looking at IFR or less in the heavier snow bands, mainly across Long Island and southern CT. NYC and points west, conditions will improve a bit as snow has begun to taper off. A brief period of moderate to locally heavy snowfall is expected this morning in a heavier band that has set up east of NYC. Runway accumulations will generally range from 1-2 inches, with this band.

Conditions improve to VFR this afternoon once the snow ends.

Winds will be from the NW around 5-10 kt to start. Winds then shifting back to the W and increasing in speed towards the end of the TAF period. A few gusts to 20-25 kt are possible late this afternoon afternoon, primarily at the city terminals.

. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: IFR or less in snow this morning then improvement to VFR around 18Z. Timing may be off by an hour or two.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: IFR or less in snow this morning then improvement to VFR around 18Z. Timing may be off by an hour or two.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: IFR or less in snow this morning then improvement to VFR around 18Z. Timing may be off by an hour or two.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: IFR or less in snow this morning then improvement to VFR around 18Z. Timing may be off by an hour or two.

KHPN TAF Comments: IFR or less in snow this morning then improvement to VFR around 16Z. Timing may be off by an hour or two.

KISP TAF Comments: IFR or less in snow this morning then improvement to VFR around 19Z. Timing may be off by an hour or two.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Thursday. VFR Friday and Friday night. VFR on Friday, then MVFR possible in developing rain Friday night. Saturday. IFR in rain. LLWS possible. Sunday. Becoming VFR.

MARINE. A weak wave of low pressure passes offshore this morning. Winds on the waters for much of today will be below SCA levels. NW winds start increasing late in the afternoon and will increase above SCA levels tonight as arctic high pressure builds to the west. Ocean seas will remain elevated through tonight as well. Wind gusts on the ocean could come close to gale force tonight, but should fall short. Have extended the SCA on the ocean through tonight and issued a new SCA for the non-ocean waters tonight. The waters east of Moriches Inlet could see seas remain elevated into the morning, so the SCA has been extended until 15z for now. Winds weaken considerably on Thursday as high pressure settles over the waters.

Low pressure approaches Friday and impacts the waters Friday night into Saturday. Marine zones could be nearing SCA conditions Saturday morning through the afternoon as south winds increase to 20-25 mph. A coastal low enters the ocean waters from the south and seas increase 9-11 feet by the afternoon. Elevated waves remain through Sunday then relax by early next week.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic issues are expected with mainly snow this Wednesday morning.

A long duration rainfall event is possible beginning Friday night through late Saturday night. Total rainfall amounts range between 1- 2 inches with isolated higher amounts possible. Minor nuisance flooding will be possible with this event.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. There will be a chance of coastal flooding with the high tide cycle during Saturday morning. This will be due to onshore winds with an approaching storm combined with relatively high astronomical tides due to a nearly full moon. Minor coastal flooding will be possible primarily along the south shore back bays of Long Island, where even moderate coastal flooding is a possibility at least along the Nassau County bays. Minor flooding will also be possible along NY Harbor and parts of Western Long Island Sound. Confidence is not high at this point as the event is still a few days away, and shifts in storm's track and/or timing would change the flooding potential.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for CTZ005>012. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for NYZ070>075-078>081-176>179. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for NJZ006-104-106-108. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ330-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350.

SYNOPSIS . DJ/16/DS NEAR TERM . DS SHORT TERM . DS LONG TERM . DJ/16 AVIATION . BC MARINE . DJ/16/DS HYDROLOGY . DJ/16/DS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 16 mi57 min NNE 5.1 G 9.9 29°F 44°F1022.9 hPa
44069 17 mi84 min N 12 G 16 33°F 41°F32°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 25 mi51 min NNE 2.9 G 8 30°F 42°F1022.8 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 27 mi54 min NE 7.8 G 12 33°F 1 ft31°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 35 mi54 min NNE 12 G 14 33°F 32°F33°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 38 mi51 min E 8 G 11 32°F 44°F1025 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 49 mi49 min NNE 19 G 23 37°F 49°F5 ft1022.2 hPa (+1.6)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY10 mi1.7 hrsN 111.75 miLight Snow Fog/Mist32°F32°F100%1022.6 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY15 mi1.7 hrsN 8 G 152.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist33°F30°F89%1022.7 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT16 mi47 minN 56.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist31°F28°F89%1024.5 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY23 mi46 minN 102.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist32°F30°F92%1023.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmSE4S5S7S9S9S9S6S6S5S6S5SW4SW7CalmS4SW3SW5CalmCalmN4CalmE3

Tide / Current Tables for Port Jefferson, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Stratford Shoal, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stratford Shoal
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:54 AM EST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:19 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:04 AM EST     7.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:29 PM EST     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:33 PM EST     6.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.63.11.70.70.30.92.245.66.97.475.73.92.20.7-0.2-0.20.82.345.56.46.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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