Friday, August14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lloyd Harbor, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 7:54PM Friday August 14, 2020 1:21 PM EDT (17:21 UTC) Moonrise 1:17AMMoonset 4:40PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1132 Am Edt Fri Aug 14 2020
This afternoon..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas around 1 ft. Chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas around 1 ft. Chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1132 Am Edt Fri Aug 14 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A persistent east to northeast flow will continue into this weekend as low pressure passes south of long island and high pressure builds into new england. The high may move east on Sunday, allowing a warm front to approach, followed by a cold front on Monday and high pressure on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lloyd Harbor, NY
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location: 40.95, -73.49     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 141538 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1138 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

SYNOPSIS. A frontal boundary remains nearly stationary south of Long Island into this evening. High pressure then takes control on Saturday and weakens on Sunday as low pressure approaches from the Mid- Atlantic. The low passes to our south on Monday and is followed by a cold front late Monday night into Tuesday morning. High pressure regains control thereafter into the mid-week period.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. High pressure continues to build across New England as a cold front remains stationary south of Long Island. NE flow will usher in some drier low level air. At the same time, a wave of low pressure passes to our south along a stalled frontal boundary.

Have updated to remove PoPs through the day as subsidence to the north of the low pressure and from the high ridging down into the area will prevent any showers. Have also raised high temperatures a few degrees on Long Island based on current trends. Highs may be reach in the next 1-2 hours, in the middle 80s, before E-SE flow develops leveling off any temperature rise. Overall highs across the area will be near seasonable in the low to mid 80s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/. Drying in the low to mid levels will promote a dry night tonight as high pressure attempts to build in from the north, but is hampered by a wave of low pressure passing by to our south. The combination of these two features will lead to somewhat breezy conditions on Saturday, particularly for coastal areas. This NE-E flow and increasing afternoon clouds will also hold high temperatures into the 70s for some coastal spots. High temperatures otherwise near normal away from the coast. Models hint at a low chance of showers over SE CT and the Twin Forks area, so will include a slight chance of a shower here in the afternoon.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents on Saturday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. Focus shifts towards an approaching shortwave trough exiting the Ohio River Valley. Mid-level moisture returns to southern New York as this system approaches. Winds veer slightly and precipitable water values increase to around 2 inches. Models are indicating possible enhanced isentropic lift along the warm front late Sunday. Total QPF from these showers and possible thunderstorms is hard to pin down as amounts will be highly contingent on the location of the heavy rainfall axis. At the moment models are keeping the heaviest rainfall south of Long Island. However if the system drifts north rain amounts ranging between 1 to 2 inches total across southern New York, northeast New Jersey and southern Connecticut are not out of the questions. This means isolated flash flooding will again be possible late this weekend. Areas not affected by rainfall will see cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper 70s.

The primary longwave trough over the Great Lakes Region pivots through New York early next week. This dynamic lift from this trough may induce additional showers to start the week, but precipitable water values hover around 1.4 to 1.5 inches. Any showers in this environment should be light to moderate. As the trough axis exits New England mid week, locally long range models are depicting some slight surface ridge from a possible 1017 mb high above Pennsylvania. Subsidence should keep rain chances to a minimum but uncertainty still exists whether or not this holds through Thursday. More confidence in high temperatures which should persist in the low 80s through the week.

AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. VFR as the area remains between high pressure building to the north and low pressure passing well to the south.

Winds NE-E under 10 kt at most inland sites, and around or just over 10 kt along the coast. Winds should back more NE and diminish to under 10 kt this evening.

. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. Saturday. VFR. E winds 10-15G20kt. Saturday night through Monday. MVFR or lower in any showers/tstms. Tuesday and Wednesday. VFR.

MARINE. Increasing E flow should bring SCA conds to the ocean waters from late evening through at least Sat night as low pressure passes to the south and high pressure builds to the north. Wind gusts should peak just over 30 kt E of Fire Island Inlet daytime Sat, while sea peak at 6-8 ft.

Lingering marginal SCA conds likely on Sunday as E flow persists. Sub SCA conds may return Sunday night/Monday but this remains uncertain. Sub SCA conditions with light west winds 5-10 kts otherwise begin Tuesday before shifting south by the middle of the week.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are expected through Saturday.

Precipitable water values could be around 2 inches Sunday into Monday as a warm front with heavy rain moves slowly over southern New York. QPF values between 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher amounts are not out of the question. Nuisance to minor flooding could be possible in any showers and thunderstorms, primarily in urban and other poor drainage areas.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . JC NEAR TERM . JC/DS SHORT TERM . JC LONG TERM . DJ AVIATION . MET MARINE . Goodman HYDROLOGY . JC/DJ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 5 mi81 min E 9.7 G 14 77°F 69°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 13 mi21 min ENE 12 G 16 78°F 71°F
44069 28 mi51 min E 16 G 19 79°F 67°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 42 mi31 min ENE 14 G 18 75°F2 ft1015.2 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY15 mi25 minVar 6 G 1510.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F62°F49%1015.8 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY16 mi28 minE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy87°F64°F46%1015.6 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY23 mi25 minE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy85°F63°F48%1015.6 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY24 mi30 minNE 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy84°F64°F51%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHPN

Wind History from HPN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE4E3SE3NE5S3E3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5N5NW3N4N5N5NE6E6E766
G15
1 day agoS4E5S7S5CalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3N4N5N5N4N5NE4NE43NE3S3NE5
2 days agoSE14S12
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S5S6S5S5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmE4

Tide / Current Tables for Lloyd Harbor entrance, Huntington Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Lloyd Harbor entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:16 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:57 AM EDT     1.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:59 AM EDT     6.65 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:07 PM EDT     1.53 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:18 PM EDT     7.74 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.51.61.21.62.74.15.36.36.66.35.242.921.51.92.94.45.97.17.77.56.65.1

Tide / Current Tables for Throg's Neck, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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Throg's Neck
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:17 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:37 AM EDT     0.84 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:26 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:52 AM EDT     -0.55 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:36 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:02 PM EDT     0.82 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:41 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:16 PM EDT     -0.59 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.30.70.80.40.1-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.4-0.100.20.50.80.60.2-0-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.5-0.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.