NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Only minor changes needed with this update, mainly to lower hourly temperatures and dew points across the Long Island Pine Barrens region, and temperatures have lowered a bit more quickly as winds have become near calm under clear skies.

With deep layered ridging in place with a 588 dm closed height signature expect the dry weather to continue. For tonight with high pressure aloft and at the surface expect mainly clear skies. With lower dew points compared to earlier this weekend, the column further down will be relatively drier. Thus the prospects for patchy fog are less likely during tonight. With a dome of high pressure and large scale subsidence mainly clear to partly cloudy skies prevails. The winds will be light and variable to NE in direction once again. Therefore expect radiational conditions, but with the lack of a true cP air mass and a very light onshore flow at times there is a floor as to how much temperatures can fall as dew points will be in the 50s and not the 40s.

With high pressure and large scale ridging holding this is basically a persistence forecast through Monday. The winds once again will be light and variable to begin the day, but with solar insolation expect the winds towards late morning and mid day to be more ENE at around 5 to 10 mph. It will be another partly to mostly sunny day with temperatures at seasonable levels for mid September.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
For Monday night the upper level ridging begins to slowly break down. More in the way of high clouds attempts to work in as low pressure off the southeastern US coast begins to work NW. High pressure however, especially when considering some subtle trends in the guidance looks to be a bit slower in breaking down.
Therefore it remains partly cloudy to mostly clear Monday night with a light E to NE flow remaining in place. With a bit more moisture in the lower levels there should once again be a reasonable chance to see some low stratus / patchy fog in many of the lower lying rural locations like previous nights as of late. Temperatures should average close to normal in outlying areas, and a bit above normal in the more urban areas.

On Tuesday surface high pressure remains in place and doesn't really show much retreat until later in the day. A southerly component to the flow aloft begins to get established during the afternoon as the region gets on the outer edge of the northeast quadrant of a closed low getting into the Lower Appalachians.
The mid levels may moisten up enough to produce more in the way of mid level clouds, especially as the day progress. Thus a partly cloudy to mostly cloudy day from NE to SW across the region appears most likely. With more mid and upper level clouds compared to lower level clouds, expect the clouds to mainly filter out varying amounts of sun. Temperatures will once again run right around seasonable levels. Dew point readings should edge up in the 60s, especially along the coast as the day proceeds. Introduced mainly slight chance PoPs later in the day as questions remain how quickly any shower activity can get into the area.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Deep layered ridging with high pressure off the northwestern Atlantic starts off the long term Tuesday night. The high slowly drifts east through mid-week. At the same time, low pressure over the Carolinas will slowly trek northwestward toward the Ohio Valley through mid-week. The associated frontal system will approach from the southwest and will begin to impact the region Tuesday night

The low and frontal system get caught under the upper level ridging over the eastern US from mid to late week and a prolonged period of some unsettled weather is possible as weak flow under the ridge will mean slow movement of these features.
Right now, it looks like the most likely period of rain is Tuesday night through Wednesday night. There is a deep moisture feed from the tropics and training possible. Dew points rise well into the 60s Wednesday into Thursday and PWATs of 1.50"-2.25" are seen in some of the guidance. Of course, this is all dependent on certain mesoscale features that cannot be resolved at this point, but there is a low chance right now of flooding, and the Weather Prediction Center has placed the entire forecast area in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall Wednesday into Thursday. With the previously mentioned uncertainty, stuck close to the NBM and did not go any higher than chance POPs through the long term.

Thereafter, the system finally begins to nudge south with the approach of a back door cold front Thursday night, which now looks to move through Friday. High pressure builds in from the northeast next weekend.

Temperatures will average near seasonable, perhaps a degree or so above Wednesday through Friday. Went slightly below guidance on Wednesday and Thursday with cloudy skies and showers in the forecast. Near normal to slightly below normal temperatures are expected for next weekend with Canadian high pressure building in from the northeast.

AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure along the New England coast will gradually moves east through Monday evening.

VFR. There is a low chance of patchy IFR/MVFR late tonight into early Monday morning, 08Z to 13Z, however, this is less likely than recent nights due to some drier low- level air in place.

Light E/NE to light and variable at the outlying terminals, increase Monday morning and an E/SE flow redevelops by Monday afternoon.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low chance of patchy MVFR/IFR from 08-13Z Monday.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Night through Tuesday: Chance of MVFR or lower conditions with low clouds/fog each late night/early morning, otherwise VFR.

Wednesday through Friday: Chance of showers with MVFR or lower conditions possible. ENE winds 10-15kt G15-20kt, mainly at the coastal terminals.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
No advisories are anticipated for the coastal waters to begin the week. Ocean seas are likely to remain primarily at 3 to 4 ft with an 8 second period SE swell. Ocean seas may momentarily get close to 5 ft by towards Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially for the western ocean. 5 ft waves are expected Tuesday night on the ocean waters. More widespread 5 ft waves on the ocean waters are expected Wednesday on a persistent easterly flow. The flow increases Thursday night, and waves continue to build to 5 to 7 ft across the ocean waters on Friday. Additionally, wind gusts of 25 to 30 kt are possible Friday into Friday night with the approach and passage of a back door cold front.

HYDROLOGY
No hydrologic concerns through the short term. An extended period of rain is possible from Tuesday night through Wednesday night with a tropical feed and training possible. There is a great deal of uncertainty this far out. The Weather Prediction Center has placed the entire forecast area in marginal risk for excessive rainfall. One factor against flooding would be the antecedent dry conditions over the last week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
With an approaching full moon on the 17th, astronomical high tides will be rising into the first half of the week, with water levels potentially rising through the week. Continuous easterly flow will help build seas and allow for some piling of water. Winds are expected to remain generally light, near 10 kt or less. While some of the guidance is showing water levels increasing, there is a general consensus of keeping them below minor coastal flooding benchmarks for the most part, although Stevens suggest minor benchmarks being reached for the south shore bays and for western LI Sound locations towards late Tue / Wed. However, this will likely depend on the development of low pressure off the Carolina coast and its eventual track early next week.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the ocean beaches Sunday and Monday with an easterly flow developing.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.