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Marine Weather and Tides Alpine, NJ Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 5:33AM

Sunset 8:29PM

Sunday July 12, 2020 7:03 PM EDT (23:03 UTC)

Moonrise 12:25AM

Moonset 12:52PM

Illumination 50%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Alpine , NJ

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Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 122219 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 619 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak front lingers offshore through Monday. Weak cold front pushes south of the area Tuesday. High builds behind the front Wednesday before moving east over the ocean Thursday. Trough and surface boundary approach southern New York Friday before lingering into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. A broad upper trough extends from the OH Valley through the northeast US with multiple shortwaves embedded. The local area remains between two shortwave features this afternoon with some ridging aloft, resulting in mainly dry conditions and partly cloudy skies under westerly/southwesterly flow. A sea breeze has developed across Long Island as well. Some scattered showers are developing across eastern PA, and may clip northwest zones this evening, but impacts are expected to be low. Temperatures are in the upper 80s across the region, with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s, making it feel less humid compared to previous days.

There is a high risk of rip current development at Atlantic Ocean beaches today due to continued long period southerly swell through this evening.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/. By this evening, a weak shortwave out ahead of the main upper trough approaches from the southwest. Moisture increases with predominately southwest flow through the evening. These, combined with the frontal boundary to the south, will result in increasing cloud cover and precipitation chances by early Monday morning. Model soundings do indicate some elevated instability for a period early Monday morning, so a few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out with any showers/storms that do move through the area. Latest 12Z CAMs/HREF have trended down the areal coverage of precipitation relative to their previous cycles, however.

Attention later on Monday focuses on the flash flood and severe thunderstorm potential, as the main upper trough axis and attendant cold front approach the area by Monday evening. Some uncertainly exists with respect to convective development overall, which will hinge on the amount of destabilization realized during the late morning and early afternoon. The convective threat will be somewhat diminished if the early morning cloud cover and precipitation hangs on longer than currently forecast. Current thinking is that clouds and any remaining showers are out of the area by 14-16Z, which is broadly supported by short term model guidance.

First, areal mean precipitable water values will remain elevated, near 1.5-2 inches, so any storms that do develop will have the potential to produce flash flooding. This will be especially true across northeastern NJ and the southern Hudson Valley which saw some of the highest rainfall totals from TS Fay late last week. 1-hr FFG has been consistently around 0.5-1" in these areas the past couple of days. In addition, 12Z HREF is showing a swath of 60-80% >1" per hour exceedance probabilities for parts of SW CT Monday afternoon. NCEP/WPC has SW CT in a slight risk and the remainder of our area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Monday.

Second, a warm humid airmass in place ahead of the approaching cold front, along with sufficient daytime heating will result in an increased threat of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms by Monday afternoon. Moderate instability, with model soundings indicating SBCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg, and 0-6km bulk shear values of 30-40 kts look sufficient to support a few organized storms. NCEP/SPC maintains a marginal risk for the entire area on Monday. Convective activity looks to diminsh by Monday evening as the cold front clears the coast.

Lows Monday morning will range from the upper 60s inland to the low 70s elsewhere. High temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 80s as dewpoints rise back into the upper 60s to around 70.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Upper level trough over central New England drops south through southern New York Tuesday. At the same time weak cold front near the Connecticut/ Massachusetts border pushes south. With the added lift from the trough overhead opted for scattered showers intimating along the front and chance PoPs for the Lower Hudson Valley and southern Connecticut. Areas not impacted by showers will likely reach temperatures in the upper 80s for the afternoon.

Conditions dry and lingering rain comes to an end overnight once the aforementioned trough shifts over the Atlantic. Temperatures should fall into the low 70s/ upper 60s due to the clearing skies overhead.

Ridge builds into the Northeast Wednesday as a 1022mb surface high off the coast of Cape Cod drifts south promoting a more stable environment locally. 1000-500 mb RH values below 40% should keep skies relatively cloud free. Afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s will make for a pleasant Summers day.

As the high and ridge drift east late in the week into the weekend expect a return to a more wet and unstable environment. A long wave trough moving east into New England pulls north Gulf moisture into New York. Precipitable water values above 1.70 inches could fuel heavy rain Friday and possibly Saturday. Timing of the trough is still uncertain at this time and will have to be monitored for future updates.

AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Weak high pressure across the region will eventually give way to approaching low pressure tonight into Monday.

VFR continues through much of tonight. However, chances for MVFR will increase late tonight into Monday with a chance of rain showers. Due to uncertainty in exact timing, left as VCSH in TAFs after 04-06Z Monday. This initial timing could be a few hours off.

W-SW flow 10-15 kt with gusts near 20 kt will eventually subside this evening with winds overall becoming more SW and decreasing to near 5-8 kt. Wind direction becomes variable late tonight into Monday before a more S-SW flow 5-10 kt returns Monday late morning into afternoon.

Thunderstorms are a possibility as well late tonight into Monday but at this point, probabilities are too low to include in TAFs. Chances for thunderstorms will increase Monday afternoon, becoming likely.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. Monday. Showers and thunderstorms likely afternoon into early evening before diminishing thereafter from west to east. MVFR to locally IFR conditions possible, otherwise VFR. S-SW winds 7-12 kt becoming W-NW going into the evening. Tuesday and Wednesday. Mainly VFR. Thursday-Friday. Mainly VFR. A chance of SHRA/TSRA with MVFR or lower conditions possible, mainly Thursday night and Friday.

MARINE. A Small Craft Advisory continues on the ocean waters into this evening due to seas around 5 feet in lingering southerly swell. Seas will begin to fall below 5 feet west of Fire Island Inlet later this evening and farther east conditions will continue to remain elevated through Monday morning, before gradually fall below 5 feet during the day. After gusts to 20-25 kt on the ocean today, winds will generally remain below 20 kt on all waters through mid week.

Ocean waters relax below 4 feet Tuesday and remain between 3 and 4 feet through the week. Light north winds 10-15kts become more southerly by mid week into the weekend.

HYDROLOGY. Showers and thunderstorms on Monday could result in flash flooding, especially across northeast New Jersey where flash flood guidance remains less than one inch/hour, and southwest CT where the heaviest rain is expected.

No significant widespread rainfall is expected Tuesday through Saturday.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

SYNOPSIS . DJ/DBR NEAR TERM . DBR SHORT TERM . DBR LONG TERM . DJ AVIATION . JM MARINE . DJ/DBR HYDROLOGY . DJ/DBR EQUIPMENT .

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
44022 - Execution Rocks	11 mi	49 min	WSW 7.8 G 12	83°F				65°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY	13 mi	46 min	NW 8 G 9.9	85°F			1006.2 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound	18 mi	79 min	SW 5.8 G 7.8	81°F		1 ft		69°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY	18 mi	46 min		86°F	77°F		1005.8 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ	22 mi	46 min	WSW 14 G 15	88°F			1005.5 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ	25 mi	46 min		88°F	79°F		1005.8 hPa
MHRN6	25 mi	46 min	WSW 8.9 G 13
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ	34 mi	46 min	SW 9.9 G 13	85°F	79°F		1006.4 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor	42 mi	24 min	S 16 G 19		74°F		1005.5 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT	42 mi	46 min	SW 7 G 8.9	85°F	75°F		1004.8 hPa

Wind History for Kings Point, NY

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

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11 PM

12 AM

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2 AM

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5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

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Last 24hr

SW20

S12

NW8 G12

S3

SW4

SW6

NW11

NW10 G16

NW13 G16

W9 G12

NW10 G14

NW12 G16

NW10 G13

NW10 G14

NW11 G14

NW9 G13

NW6 G9

NW9

W9 G12

NW10

NW11

NW11

NW10 G13

NW8 G11

1 day ago

S9 G21

S10 G19

S10 G19

S11 G18

S19 G24

SW21

SW21 G26

SW18 G25

SW18 G22

SW19

SW12 G15

SW10 G13

SW8

SW11

SW8 G11

SW9 G12

SW10

SW12

SW13

SW14

S14

SW15

SW17

SW18 G22

2 days ago

S13

S8

S3

S2

S3

SE2

E2

E3

NE4

E4

E3 G6

E2 G6

E4 G7

E4 G8

E5 G9

E6 G10

E6 G11

E5 G9

E5 G11

E7 G11

E8 G14

E7 G11

SE6 G14

SE6 G15

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Teterboro, Teterboro Airport, NJ	9 mi	73 min	WSW 9	10.00 mi	Fair	88°F	60°F	39%	1004.7 hPa
New York, La Guardia Airport, NY	12 mi	73 min	W 8	10.00 mi	A Few Clouds	92°F	55°F	29%	1005.1 hPa
New York City, Central Park, NY	12 mi	73 min	Var 3	10.00 mi	Fair	86°F	59°F	40%	1005.4 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY	14 mi	68 min	WSW 9	10.00 mi	Fair	85°F	57°F	40%	1005 hPa
Caldwell, Essex County Airport, NJ	20 mi	71 min	Var 5	10.00 mi	Fair	90°F	60°F	37%	1006.1 hPa
Newark, Newark International Airport, NJ	21 mi	73 min	WSW 14 G 18	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	90°F	59°F	35%	1005.3 hPa
New York, Kennedy International Airport, NY	21 mi	73 min	S 12	10.00 mi	A Few Clouds	86°F	66°F	53%	1005.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTEB

Wind History from TEB (wind in knots)

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Last 24hr

S5

Calm

Calm

S5

SW5

SW6

SW6

SW7

W7

SW9

SW7

W7

W8

W7 G17

NW9

W10

NW8

W9 G15

W7

W7

W12 G20

SW8

W9

W10

1 day ago

E12 G21

E14 G19

SE9 G16

S9

S11

S13 G21

S16 G23

SW14

SW16

S8

SW5

S4

S5

SW7

SW7

S5

S7

SW9

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SW4

SE5

S10

S10

SW12 G20

2 days ago

S5

S4

SE4

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Calm

SE5

E4

Calm

NE3

NE5

N4

E5

E5

E8

E9 G15

NE10 G17

NE9 G15

NE11

NE12 G20

NE12 G20

E11 G17

E10 G23

E12 G21

E13 G27

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Tide / Current Tables for Alpine, New Jersey, Hudson River, New York

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Tide / Current Tables for George Washington Bridge (Hudson River), New York Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (19,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY

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