Tuesday, August4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Arthur Estates, PA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 8:35PM Tuesday August 4, 2020 1:01 AM EDT (05:01 UTC) Moonrise 8:35PMMoonset 6:03AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ148 Expires:202008040830;;895275 Fzus51 Kcle 040147 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 947 Pm Edt Mon Aug 3 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez147>149-040830- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 947 Pm Edt Mon Aug 3 2020
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 knots or less. A chance of waterspouts. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. A chance of waterspouts. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday. The water temperature off toledo is 76 degrees, off cleveland 76 degrees, and off erie 78 degrees.
LEZ148


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Arthur Estates, PA
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location: 40.95, -80.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 040455 AAC AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1255 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. Upper level system will slowly swing through the region today. This will keep in the risk for scattered showers or an isolated thunderstorm. High pressure will return sunshine and warm temperatures on Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. Adjustments were made to the PoPs overnight to better represent current radar trends and 00Z model guidance. Most of the shower activity is confined to the leading edge of upper level heights falls occurring on the eastern side of a Midwestern trough. The trough is making little eastward progress as it battles the upper level portion of Isaias. Current hires model guidance is suggesting that these showers will slowly dissipate tonight as they continue to encounter drier air and subsidence to their east. The trough will eventually win the battle before dawn and the associated heights falls will begin to pass through the region. At this point, there is little agreement in the model data.

The upper level system sliding across the region will phase with Isaias late this morning or during the afternoon. This will complicate our forecast just a bit as the bulk of the upper level energy, and deep moisture, will rush eastward into the phasing systems. Model data is responding to this transfer by advertising a pattern where a passing shower is possible at any time this afternoon across the entire area. Pinpointing any location that is more likely to see rain today is difficult, so chance PoPs, depicting a scattered setup, appears to be the prudent forecast choice.

Cloud cover looks tricky as well. Once the mid and upper level cloud deck shift eastward toward Isaias, skies may go mostly sunny for a time. This increased sunshine would stir up the atmosphere, warm surface temperatures allowing them to reach convective temps, and ultimately create an atmosphere more conducive to shower/storm development. Forecast soundings this afternoon do show instability aloft which parcels, with assistance from increased diurnal heating, should be able to reach. With minimal wind shear, any storms that do develop should be short lived.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. Building high pressure will return dry conditions tonight and Wednesday. Broad upper troughing will support slightly cooler, more comfortable conditions for Wednesday.

Thursday looks mainly dry and warm, with decreasing cloud cover. A shower or storm could develop over the southeastern ridges during the afternoon as a weak surface low will move northeastward along a stalled front over the Mid-Atlantic.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Ridging should increase across the central CONUS in response to another, digging Pac. NW trough. This will gradually fill in and replace existent troughing across the Great Lakes, with rising heights assisting in another warm up Friday and through the weekend. Sfc high pressure should support mostly dry conditions through the period, with the exception for the ridges, where orographic lift may support daily chances for convection.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As a weak trough swings through to the northwest, an apparent area of drying will keep showers and storms from moving eastward. This will keep a few terminals out of the showers and storms. Expect this to continue into the overnight.

Weak moist advection overnight may create MVFR/IFR restrictions Tuesday morning, with low fog potential dependent upon degree of radiational cooling. More likely, advancement of the trough east will create bkn high MVFR/low VFR clouds and spotty light rain showers.

Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm will remain possible into the day Tuesday as the trough axis passed overhead and pushes a weak sfc cold front through the region.

Outlook. Sct showers and thunderstorms with periodic restrictions are expected Tuesday before high pressure returns sites to dry, VFR conditions Wednesday through the rest of the week.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. OH . None. PA . None. WV . None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 77 mi91 min S 5.1 G 7 82°F
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 82 mi43 min S 8 G 8 68°F 76°F1012.6 hPa66°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Castle, New Castle Municipal Airport, PA15 mi65 minE 36.00 miFog/Mist66°F64°F96%1016.2 hPa
Beaver County Airport, PA16 mi66 minN 07.00 miFair66°F63°F94%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUCP

Wind History from UCP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm445SW456434W4N6W3NE3CalmS3E3SE4
1 day ago4S6444556SW8SW13
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2 days agoNE3CalmE4E4CalmCalm3CalmCalmSW3CalmNE5E7E6E7E5E4E5E4E53336

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Pittsburgh, PA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Pittsburgh, PA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.