Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Arthur Estates, PA

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Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA

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FXUS61 KPBZ 040455 AAC AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1255 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. Upper level system will slowly swing through the region today. This will keep in the risk for scattered showers or an isolated thunderstorm. High pressure will return sunshine and warm temperatures on Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. Adjustments were made to the PoPs overnight to better represent current radar trends and 00Z model guidance. Most of the shower activity is confined to the leading edge of upper level heights falls occurring on the eastern side of a Midwestern trough. The trough is making little eastward progress as it battles the upper level portion of Isaias. Current hires model guidance is suggesting that these showers will slowly dissipate tonight as they continue to encounter drier air and subsidence to their east. The trough will eventually win the battle before dawn and the associated heights falls will begin to pass through the region. At this point, there is little agreement in the model data.

The upper level system sliding across the region will phase with Isaias late this morning or during the afternoon. This will complicate our forecast just a bit as the bulk of the upper level energy, and deep moisture, will rush eastward into the phasing systems. Model data is responding to this transfer by advertising a pattern where a passing shower is possible at any time this afternoon across the entire area. Pinpointing any location that is more likely to see rain today is difficult, so chance PoPs, depicting a scattered setup, appears to be the prudent forecast choice.

Cloud cover looks tricky as well. Once the mid and upper level cloud deck shift eastward toward Isaias, skies may go mostly sunny for a time. This increased sunshine would stir up the atmosphere, warm surface temperatures allowing them to reach convective temps, and ultimately create an atmosphere more conducive to shower/storm development. Forecast soundings this afternoon do show instability aloft which parcels, with assistance from increased diurnal heating, should be able to reach. With minimal wind shear, any storms that do develop should be short lived.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. Building high pressure will return dry conditions tonight and Wednesday. Broad upper troughing will support slightly cooler, more comfortable conditions for Wednesday.

Thursday looks mainly dry and warm, with decreasing cloud cover. A shower or storm could develop over the southeastern ridges during the afternoon as a weak surface low will move northeastward along a stalled front over the Mid-Atlantic.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Ridging should increase across the central CONUS in response to another, digging Pac. NW trough. This will gradually fill in and replace existent troughing across the Great Lakes, with rising heights assisting in another warm up Friday and through the weekend. Sfc high pressure should support mostly dry conditions through the period, with the exception for the ridges, where orographic lift may support daily chances for convection.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As a weak trough swings through to the northwest, an apparent area of drying will keep showers and storms from moving eastward. This will keep a few terminals out of the showers and storms. Expect this to continue into the overnight.

Weak moist advection overnight may create MVFR/IFR restrictions Tuesday morning, with low fog potential dependent upon degree of radiational cooling. More likely, advancement of the trough east will create bkn high MVFR/low VFR clouds and spotty light rain showers.

Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm will remain possible into the day Tuesday as the trough axis passed overhead and pushes a weak sfc cold front through the region.

Outlook. Sct showers and thunderstorms with periodic restrictions are expected Tuesday before high pressure returns sites to dry, VFR conditions Wednesday through the rest of the week.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. OH . None. PA . None. WV . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH	77 mi	91 min	S 5.1 G 7	82°F
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH	82 mi	43 min	S 8 G 8	68°F	76°F		1012.6 hPa	66°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
New Castle, New Castle Municipal Airport, PA	15 mi	65 min	E 3	6.00 mi	Fog/Mist	66°F	64°F	96%	1016.2 hPa
Beaver County Airport, PA	16 mi	66 min	N 0	7.00 mi	Fair	66°F	63°F	94%	1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KUCP

Wind History from UCP (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Pittsburgh, PA (1,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Pittsburgh, PA

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