Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 8:19 PM Moonrise 1:59 AM   Moonset 11:36 AM

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LEZ148 Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 330 Pm Edt Wed May 1 2024
Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - West winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday night - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday.
the water temperature off toledo is 58 degrees, off cleveland 51 degrees, and off erie 53 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KPBZ 012329 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 729 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
The remainder of the work week will be dry and warm as temperatures will continue to be above normal. A slight cool down is expected this weekend with returning rain chances.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Warm and dry overnight.

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A weakening front will drop south across the region \ from the northwest overnight, but with limited moisture and lift the only impact will be a shift in the light winds and a slight increase in cloud coverage. Latest ensemble guidance shows single digit probabilities for any precipitation amount over a 6 hour period north of PGH. Overnight lows should bottom out around 10 degrees above normal for the beginning of May.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather and above-normal temperatures continue Thursday and through most of Friday.

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Dry weather and above-normal temperatures continue Thursday and once again through much of Friday. Temperatures settle into the 50s by early Thursday morning before climbing back into the 80s (upper 70s north of I-80) Thursday afternoon. In fact, even better NBM probabilities are in place for Thursday and Friday high temperatures. Looking 80% to 99% probabilities of 80 degree highs or greater. Friday looks like the warmest day of the week. High pressure will continue to support above- normal temps and dry conditions Thursday night with lows ranging from upper 50s south of I-80 to low 50s farther north.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- An unsettled pattern returns Friday evening into Friday night through the weekend with above-average temperatures and periods of showers and thunderstorms favored.

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Ensembles continue to indicate a more active weather pattern setting up into the weekend as an upper level trough pushes eastward over the Great Lakes, shunting the ridge axis southeastward and bringing a deep-layer southwest flow to the region. Periods of showers and thunderstorms can be expected Friday afternoon through the weekend, though exact timing and intensity of any given round of convection remains uncertain due to the complex nature of the more active pattern. The latest ensemble runs continue to paint Friday night and Saturday as the most likely periods to see widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, though there also continues to be some signal for scattered convection lingering through Sunday and even into early next week.

At this time, a widespread severe weather threat appears unlikely due to a lack of notable instability or bulk shear. The same can be said about the threat for a widespread flood threat, as ensemble probabilities for widespread rainfall amounts of an inch or greater remain low (30% or less) across the area during any given 24-hour period this weekend. That said, heavier rain rates in thunderstorms could result in a localized minor flood threat for low-lying and urban areas. For this reason, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall across eastern OH, western PA, and northern WV on Saturday. Stay tuned for more details on timing and impacts as we get closer to the weekend.

Temperatures Saturday through Tuesday also trend above normal, but remain in the 70s due to thickening cloud cover and an increasing coverage of showers and storms. The overall synoptic pattern certainly would suggest a busy stretch of days starting this weekend into next week.

AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR conditions will prevail under high pressure. A wave of mid- lvl clouds is currently tracking through Ohio, associated with a passing shortwave trough. SCT/FEW at 6kft to 8kft is expected for a few sites. A wind shift from southwest to west/northwest is expected the progression of the shortwave.

Outlook
VFR conditions are expected to continue through Thursday night under high pressure. The next chance for restrictions comes late Friday into early Saturday with passing low pressure.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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