Lake Arthur Estates, PA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Arthur Estates, PA

June 18, 2024 7:43 AM EDT (11:43 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 8:58 PM
Moonrise 4:55 PM   Moonset 2:03 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LEZ148 Expires:202406180815;;205948 Fzus51 Kcle 180132 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 932 pm edt Mon jun 17 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez147>149-180815- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva-on-the- lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny- 932 pm edt Mon jun 17 2024

Rest of tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Tuesday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.

Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Wednesday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday.
the water temperature off toledo is 72 degrees, off cleveland 67 degrees, and off erie 68 degrees.

LEZ100
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Arthur Estates, PA
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Area Discussion for - Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 180833 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 433 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
A prolonged period of hot temperatures is expected with high pressure. Hottest temperatures are anticipated Wednesday through Friday. Isolated showers and storms are possible Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Heat continues to build, with many locations reaching 100F heat indices this afternoon.
- Isolated to scattered downbursts are possible once again this afternoon.

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A warm but quiet morning across the Ohio Valley. A few speckles of showers continue to show on radar to our south, but this activity should stay out of our area.

The ridge will continue to amplify today, with surface high pressure centered off the east coast. Rising heights aloft should boost temperatures a few degrees higher than on Monday, with the probability of >95F around 35-45% in many areas and above 70% in urban areas
The heat advisory continues

Similar to Monday, a weak disturbance riding the western periphery of the ridge may help trigger convective initiation again this afternoon. Despite strong subsidence from the ridge, orographic effect and a minefield of outflow boundaries from Monday's storms could once again allow scattered thunderstorms across the area. Rapid destabilization resulting from strong surface heating along with weak shear will favor downbursts once again, with potential for severe winds. SPC has highlighted much of the region in a Marginal (1/5) risk.

Given the unknowns of initiation and complexity of the outflow boundaries currently lying across the area, location and coverage of storms is difficult to pinpoint. Best timing once again appears to be in the mid/late afternoon, with storms quickly diminishing in the evening hours.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Heat continues to build with probabilities pointing to Thursday and Friday being the hottest days of the week.
- Chances for afternoon convection decreases.

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The ridge becomes centered over the region by Wednesday, with ensembles continuing to show heights of 597-599dm. With surface high pressure centered a little farther west, the threat for convection will be decreased Wednesday afternoon, through ensembles do indicate low-end probabilities mainly north and west of Pittsburgh. For this reason, did introduce low-end PoPs primarily across the I-80 corridor for Wednesday afternoon.
Probabilities for storms look even lower on Thursday and Friday afternoons, but remain non-zero. Focus again would likely be north of Pittsburgh.

With similar conditions, temperatures on Wednesday look to be similar to Tuesday. Probabilities for high temperatures > 95 both Thursday and Friday are the highest of the week, though the ridge will begin to break down on Friday. The higher probabilities are also more widespread Thursday and Friday, with much of the area in the 50-85% range both days.

Elevated high temperatures and dewpoints will keep heat indices at and above 100 through the period. Low temperatures will also remain elevated with the probability > 70 around 50-80% both nights.

Considering heat effects will be cumulative, late week looks particularly dangerous. The early season event, and temperatures increasing slightly each day, will compound any existing heat issues.

Potential impacts include heightened heat-related illnesses and power grid issues with increased demand. It is strongly encouraged to know where cooling shelters are located and stay hydrated. There may be little relief at night. Make a list of friends and family to check on and help them prepare.
Prolonged exposure to excessive heat was the primary cause of weather-related fatalities in 2023.

Please see the Climate section below for more numerical details on the kinds of records that may be in jeopardy.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Hot temperatures continue into the weekend, but the heat wave will begin to break.
- Cooler temperatures are possible, at least temporarily by early next week.

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The upper level ridge will break down this weekend and become suppressed well to the south as an upper trough crosses the Great Lakes. However, ensembles indicate this is unlikely to have a significant impact on Saturday's temperatures, with hot weather continuing into the first half of the weekend.

Ensembles show good agreement on the upper trough crossing into the Great Lakes by Sunday, which should finally bring relief from the heat and an increase in rain probabilities. At present, Sunday's temperatures still appear well above average, but much more tolerable than prior days. Post frontal cold advection on Monday may finally drop temperatures back to a semblance of normal, at least temporarily.

AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Expect mainly VFR conditions through the night and into the dawn hours of Tuesday morning. Moisture produced this past evening and afternoon from thunderstorms may result in some fog development in the usual areas. This may impact terminals but confidence is low in this occurrence. A weak surface trough that has been the culprit for the area will remain in place into the coming day as well. In fact, expect the chance of a few showers developing and moving north into eastern OH through dawn.

Heading into the day, any impacts to terminals will be solely due to thunderstorms. However, the lack of strong forcing and multiple boundaries put down by the convective activity from the previous day will lead to less confidence in timing and location of development heading into Tuesday afternoon. With daytime heating and remnant boundaries, expect initiation to take place between 16Z and 18Z. Convection is expected to then persist into the late afternoon and evening, possibly dissipating earlier than the previous day by 00Z. Thus have put VCTS to all terminals today to account for the uncertainty in location ands timing. Once again, conditions due to fog tomorrow night will be dependent on location of convection. Expect light and variable winds through the day with the exception of thunderstorms.

Outlook
High probability for VFR and dry weather through the week as strong ridging develops aloft.

The only variance may come with isolated afternoon convection on Wednesday, but upper ridging should suppress coverage and potential initiation.

CLIMATE
The area has the potential to break various heat-related records.

There is low probability that climate sites approach the highest temperatures recorded in the 21st century:

Pittsburgh, PA: 98F (7/7/2012)
Wheeling, WV: 98F (7/7/2012)
Morgantown, WV: 101F (7/7/2012)
New Philadelphia, OH: 101F (7/7/2012)
Zanesville, OH: 101F (7/7/2012)
DuBois, PA: 101F (7/22/2011)

There is a modest probability many June all-time temperature records may be at stake:

Pittsburgh, PA: 98F (1988)
Wheeling, WV: 100F (1933)
Morgantown, WV: 99F (1893)
New Philadelphia, OH: 99F (1988)
Zanesville, OH: 101F (1988,1934)
DuBois, PA: 92F (1969)

Daily high maximum (left) and high minimum (right) temperature records are at stake for:

Tuesday, June 18th Pittsburgh, PA: 97F (1994) 73F (1905)
Wheeling, WV: 95F (1944) 71F (2018)
Morgantown, WV: 95F (1994) 70F (2018)
New Philadelphia, OH: 95F (1994) 72F (2017)
Zanesville, OH: 99F (1944) 73F (1944)
DuBois, PA: 89F (2018) 69F (2018)

Wednesday, June 19th Pittsburgh, PA: 97F (1994) 74F (1905)
Wheeling, WV: 95F (1933) 70F (2021)
Morgantown, WV: 94F (1994) 72F (2018)
New Philadelphia, OH: 92F (1994) 70F (2018)
Zanesville, OH: 94F (1994) 75F (1897)
DuBois, PA: 87F (2001) 66F (1975)

Thursday, June 20th Pittsburgh, PA: 95F (1994) 78F (1924)
Wheeling, WV: 97F (1933) 70F (1924)
Morgantown, WV: 99F (1893) 75F (1924)
New Philadelphia, OH: 95F (1994) 71F (2009)
Zanesville, OH: 98F (1934) 75F (1924)
DuBois, PA: 89F (1991) 66F (1996)

Friday, June 21st Pittsburgh, PA: 95F (1933) 73F (1934)
Wheeling, WV: 99F (1933) 69F (2016)
Morgantown, WV: 95F (1953) 72F (1988)
New Philadelphia, OH: 94F (1994) 72F (2016)
Zanesville, OH: 97F (1988) 72F (1997)
DuBois, PA: 89F (1991) 68F (1988)

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for PAZ007>009-013>016- 020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ039>041-048>050- 057>059-068-069.
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for WVZ001>004-012-021- 509>511.




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