Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lake Arthur Estates, PA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and quiet weather today -------------------------------------------------------------------

No major changes to the overnight period.

Minor ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will keep the area dry and warm today. Plenty of sunshine will push temperatures at least 10 degrees above normal.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather through Thursday - Risk for showers and storms increases Friday.
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Further 500mb height rises are expected during the daytime on Thursday as the southern portion of this disjointed upper ridge strengthens over us. High temperatures are expected to surge past 80 degrees for much of the area (largely over 60% chance south of I-80 and largely over 90% chance south of I-70). NBM probabilities for 85 degrees or more are also notable, with some hot spots between 40- 60+% mainly tied to the river valleys south of I-70. Some of these probabilities sneak into the greater Pittsburgh area as well. Helping this, NBM mean cloud cover is pretty scant and even a reasonable cloudiest scenario (90th percentile) still has large swaths of the region largely cloud free.

An upper trough is expected to be moving eastward through the central CONUS on Thursday. Increasing moisture and warm advection ahead of this trough returns shower chances to the area late Thursday night. The associated surface front is expected to track across the Upper Ohio Valley region late Friday bringing the risk for showers and thunderstorms.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Shower chances continue into Saturday - Trough speed will determine timing of return to above average temps -------------------------------------------------------------------

Clustered ensembles bring the upper trough through the region Saturday but differ on the exact timing due to a signal for a possibly weaker trough. Showers are expected to shut off from west to east as the trough exits the region.

500mb heights are expected to be on the rise again Sunday returning dry weather and warming temperatures. The degree to which we warm remains in question as clustered ensembles favor stubbornness from our prior trough in exiting the Eastern Seaboard as a strong ridge builds across the central CONUS. A more stubborn, slower trough favors a cooler end to the weekend.

The central CONUS ridge translates eastward to begin next week and will likely bring dry weather, largely clear skies and above average temperatures.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure will ensure VFR conditions and light wind through the period. Light wind will gradually veer from southeasterly to westerly through the day, becoming variable again after sunset.

Outlook...
VFR conditions continue through Thursday with high pressure.
Shower and thunderstorm chances with rising restriction probabilities will accompany the passage of a low pressure system starting late Friday night into Saturday morning. There is high confidence in VFR and dry weather developing by Sunday under drier northwest flow and building high pressure.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.