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LEZ148 Expires:202312012115;;714612 Fzus51 Kcle 011458 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 958 am est Fri dec 1 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145>149-012115- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva-on-the- lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny- 958 am est Fri dec 1 2023
This afternoon..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of rain. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 44 degrees, off cleveland 45 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KPBZ 011515 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1015 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

SYNOPSIS
Rain returns to the area today with seasonably warm temperatures. The weather pattern will remain unsettled through the weekend with warmer temperatures anticipated.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A weakening surface low will crawl northeastward today reaching central IL by sunset. Rain will overspread the region this morning. Rainfall amounts continue to look on the light side as the best lift will stream across northern PA riding along a stalled baroclinic zone. Additionally, a large upper level dry slot will spread across the region late this morning and during the afternoon, further depleting the system of deep moisture.
NBM 50th pct QPF generally ranges from .10 to .30 across the entire forecast area with the higher amounts on the northern and western edges. These numbers look reasonable due to the lack of large scale forcing and deep moisture.

Temperatures will be a bit cooler today as a period of cold air advection will accompany the system.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/
The weakening surface low will drift out of the upper Midwest and over Lake Erie this evening. The upper level support with this system will shift well north of the region which should promote a decrease in rain coverage overnight. NBM probabilities show the best chance for rain overnight to be in the I-80 corridor, but that too should be very light.

The surface low will wash out on Saturday and height rises are expected as a large trough digs into the central US. This pattern should limit the threat for additional rainfall, which is supported by the NBM 50 pct QPF which keeps the area dry.
The uncertainty for Saturday comes from a quasi-stationary front that was left over the area as Friday's surface low dissolved.
Where this front ends up on Saturday, will determine the threat for afternoon showers, especially over locations south of I-70.
This uncertainty is showing up in the NBM QPF probabilities where the 90th pct has an area of rain moving through these locales. Because of this, will need to keep in chance PoPs for a portions of the region.

We should expect a surge of warmer air on Saturday which will push our temperatures well above normal. With the NBM 50th and 90th pct resting on either side of the mid 50s to mid 60s, temperatures 10+ degrees above normal looks like a good bet.

Another system will move toward the region on Sunday returning the risk for widespread light rain. Temperatures will remain above seasonal averages.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Ensembles show the next upper trough passage will be in the Sunday night/Monday timeframe, bringing a break to our current pattern. General eastern CONUS troughing should then continue through mid-week. Though ensemble spread remains elevated through this period, there is enough consensus to suggest the following basic trends:

- Above-normal temperature will remain Sunday into early Monday.
- Temperature will trend near to below normal by Wednesday.
- Precipitation is likely to occur from Sunday through the middle of next week, but timing and extent of any dry periods remains fuzzy.

AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Deterioration to MVFR is expected as rain overspreads the region and the very dry sfc-5kft layer evident in this morning's sounding begins to saturate. Further deterioration to IFR is expected this afternoon at FKL and DUJ, with IFR extending southward to PIT/AGC/ZZV this evening. Rain should taper off later this afternoon after the passage of the initial shortwave, though low level moisture will support low clouds and patchy drizzle overnight night, especially for airports north of MGW.

OUTLOOK
Periodic restrictions and rain chances will continue through Tuesday as a series of low pressure systems cross the region.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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