Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 12:34 PM   Moonset 3:15 AM

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ANZ338 NEw York Harbor- 119 Am Edt Tue Apr 16 2024
Overnight - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Tue - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Tue night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Wed - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the afternoon.Wed night - E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers.Thu - E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Showers.Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Fri night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Sat - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.Sat night - NW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 119 Am Edt Tue Apr 16 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A weak cold front pushes offshore and south of the coastal waters tonight. High pressure builds in overnight and remains through Tuesday night. A slow moving warm front then approaches from the southwest Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure briefly builds in for Friday, followed by a cold front on Saturday.

FXUS61 KPHI 160537 AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 137 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will settle south and east of our area overnight.
High pressure builds in towards dawn and lingers through Tuesday, before a series of fronts and low pressure systems affect the East Coast Wednesday through early this upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
130 AM...As of early this morning, the cold front was just clearing south and east of the area as it moves off the coast with still some associated mid level cloud cover over portions of Delmarva and far southern NJ. Otherwise, drier air is working in on northerly winds which are gusting 20 to 25 mph at times.
However these winds should abate through the Pre-dawn hours as high pressure begins to build in to our north and the pressure gradient relaxes. Expect early morning lows ranging from the 40s north to the low to mid 50s south.

For Tuesday, upper level ridging will move in to our north and west as a surface high moves southeast from the Great Lakes. Fair weather is expected with a mostly sunny sky. High temperatures will be a little above average with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s for most spots. It will be a dry airmass too with dew points mainly in the 30s except near 40 over Delmarva. These numbers were actually lowered some from the previous forecast. A sea breeze should develop with a wind more from the south closer to the coast in the afternoon.

Upper level ridging will slide eastward toward our region Tuesday night. This should limit coverage of showers despite a warm front approaching from the south which will bring some increasing clouds. We do keep a slight chance of showers in the forecast towards dawn over the eastern MD shore but otherwise POPs are below 15 percent. Expect lows mainly in the upper 40s to low 50s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
On Wednesday, the shortwave ridge weakens ahead of the next closed low approaching from the west, leading to increasing chances for showers though the day. Thanks in large part to the warm front in the region, there will likely be a robust temperature inversion through the day, resulting in limited instability. Therefore, not expecting any thunderstorms at this time. Daytime highs will only be in the low to mid 60s.

The closed low and a trailing cold front approach the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Consequently, there are chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms in the Wednesday night/Thursday period. As far as thunderstorms, instability, especially surface based instability may remain limited through this period, so it is uncertain how widespread the coverage of storms will be. At this point, it appears as if we are likely to have widespread showers with some embedded thunderstorms, primarily late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, though there still remains quite a bit of uncertainty with the timing.

For the rest of the day Thursday, global guidance is showing the potential for a backdoor front arriving as high pressure off the coast of Maine interacts with a weak coastal low off the Delmarva seaboard that will spin off from the decaying parent cold front from the previous night. Resultant E to NE flow will help keep temperatures much cooler than earlier in the week.
Depending on how far south this backdoor front advances, temperatures to the north will be in the 50s with mid to upper 60s to the south.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Tranquil weather should return again, albeit briefly, as the low departs our region Thursday night into Friday, before the next cold front approaches to start the weekend. At this point, the forecast has rain chances almost throughout this period (Friday night through Sunday), but it is unlikely to be a washout through the period, rather there remains uncertainty in the exact timing of the cold front. Once the cold front passes, we should have drying conditions.

AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight...VFR. Northerly winds 10 to 15 gusting up to 20 knots through around 7-8z and then diminishing to 5 to 10 knots or less. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday...VFR. Locally light and variable winds early, then generally northwest winds around 10 knots with a gradually backing trend through the afternoon. A sea breeze may result in a more southerly wind mostly at KACY in the afternoon. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night...Increasing mid/high cloud cover but remaining VFR. Winds becoming light and variable in the evening and then generally E/NE overnight but remaining around 5 knots or less.
Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday...There is a chance (50 to 60 percent) for sub-VFR conditions at times due to stratus and showers. The best chances for this looks to be overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Thursday night through Saturday...VFR, but a brief period of sub-VFR is possible (20 percent) especially Friday.

MARINE
Northerly winds are briefly picking up overnight in the wake of a cold front to around 15 knots and expect some gusts to around 20 to 25 knots. However by morning these winds should settle back down to around 10 knots. Conditions should otherwise be below Small Craft Advisory levels through Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria.

Wednesday night through Friday...SCA conditions possible for at especially over our northern ocean zones as winds and seas build.

Friday night through Saturday...Sub-SCA conditions.

PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

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