Tuesday, July7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Baiting Hollow, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:26PM Tuesday July 7, 2020 10:00 PM EDT (02:00 UTC) Moonrise 10:34PMMoonset 7:42AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 949 Pm Edt Tue Jul 7 2020
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Slight chance of showers.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with chance of tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of tstms. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely with chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 949 Pm Edt Tue Jul 7 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A weak warm front lifts north overnight. A surface trough will then pass near or just north of the area Wednesday afternoon, followed by weak high pressure through Thursday. Low pressure will then approach from the south Friday into Saturday, followed by a series of weak fronts moving through from later Saturday into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baiting Hollow CDP, NY
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location: 40.97, -72.74     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 080106 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 906 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak warm front lifts north overnight. A surface trough will then pass near or just north of the area Wednesday afternoon, followed by weak high pressure through Thursday. Low pressure will then approach from the south Friday into Saturday, followed by a series of weak fronts moving through from later Saturday into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. An area of showers advancing NE ahead of a warm front over central NJ will pass through New London County in CT during the next hour, possibly producing a quick tenth of an inch. Showers right along the warm front were also dissipating across the Trenton area. A pop up shower can't be ruled out overnight with the passage of the warm front.

With plenty of cloud cover and patchy fog, overnight lows will only fall to around 70 degrees.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. A weak warm front lifts north of the area by Wednesday morning, followed by a shortwave trough approaching from the west in the afternoon. With better upper level support, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon, especially for areas from New York City north and west. Convection is then expected to diminish after sunset as the shortwave pushes east, allowing ridging to build in aloft for Wednesday night.

With the exception of the immediate south-facing coastlines, temperatures on Wednesday are expected to rise into the mid to upper 80s area wide. Combined with dewpoints around 70, this should produce heat index values in the upper 80s to lower 90s across much of the area, with a few locations across portions of northeast New Jersey possibly seeing heat index values touch the mid 90s. Overnight lows will provide little relief, only falling into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

A moderate rip current risk is expected again on Wednesday due to relatively long period SE-S swell of 3 ft and S flow 10-15 kt.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. High pressure builds briefly on Thursday. Temperatures on Thursday are forecast to rise to the upper 80s and lower 90s. Heat index values should reach the mid and upper 90s across the interior and the lower 90s elsewhere. There is the potential for some isolated to widely sct showers/tstms off higher terrain and perhaps sea breeze boundaries anticipated in an unstable, but capped and weakly sheared environment Thursday afternoon and evening.

There is a moderate risk for rip current development at Atlantic Ocean beaches on Thursday as long period southerly swell continues.

Low pressure moves up the Mid Atlantic coast on Friday, passing over the region Friday night into Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are possible, especially Friday afternoon and evening likely just north east of the sfc low as it taps into a warm conveyor belt of Gulf and subtropical Atlantic moisture. Still low confidence on location of this heavy rain potential, as well as potential for breezy conditions on the east side of the low, as a potential 30-40 kt LLJ develops.

An upper-level trough and its associated cold front will move into the area Saturday, resulting in hot and humid conditions and the increase chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. The cold front will move off to the east Monday, but the upper-level trough will remain overhead bringing a potential for diurnal convection as well as a gradual trend to a more seasonable airmass through early next week.

AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. A weak warm front just to the south this evening across central NJ will work slowly north and pass through the terminals overnight.

Ahead of the warm front, much of the area has either IFR or MVFR conditions with not much improvement expected until the warm frontal passage. Models soundings do show the low-levels gradually drying out as the flow veers to the south. Confidence on the time of improvement is low to medium as clearing could very well be delayed until around daybreak with the onset of daytime heating. That being the case, long episodes of stratus become less frequent as we get deeper into the warm season. At the very least, do expect VFR conditions to develop across all terminals before morning ends.

A pop-up shower cannot be ruled out during the night as well, but chances are too low to mention in any one TAF. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Wednesday afternoon, especially north and west of NYC with the approach of a trough. E-SE winds of 5-10kt will veer around to the S by daybreak with the warm frontal passage. Winds increase to around 10 kt Wednesday with a few gusts into the teens possible in the afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. Wednesday Night-Thursday. Chance of MVFR afternoon or evening showers and thunderstorms, mainly from the NYC metros north/west. Friday-Saturday. MVFR or lower conditions likely in showers along with a few thunderstorms. Chance E-SE gusts 20-25kt for Friday into Friday night. Sunday. MVFR or lower possible at times with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE. Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters through Wednesday night with winds generally remaining below 20 kt and ocean seas 3-4 feet.

SCA seas are likely Friday and into early next week with a persistent S/SW flow and strengthening wind fields owing to a possible coastal low nearing the region.

HYDROLOGY. A localized urban and poor drainage flood threat exists with any isolated thunderstorm activity through Thursday.

There is increasing potential for more widespread heavy rain Friday into Saturday as low pressure moves up the coast. More details as the week progresses.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.



UPDATE . DW


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 23 mi42 min ESE 7 G 11 69°F 73°F1018.2 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 27 mi42 min E 8.9 G 14 68°F 70°F1018.2 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 41 mi140 min SE 16 G 18 1018.9 hPa
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 42 mi42 min 69°F 65°F1019.4 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 44 mi42 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 67°F 68°F1019.4 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 45 mi60 min E 9.7 G 14 70°F 1 ft69°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY11 mi67 minSSE 410.00 miOvercast71°F70°F96%1019.2 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY12 mi64 minSE 56.00 miFog/Mist73°F70°F90%1018.5 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY22 mi64 minESE 42.00 miFog/Mist73°F73°F100%1018.3 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT23 mi67 minE 89.00 miOvercast70°F68°F93%1018.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE7SE7SE5SE6S53SE3E4E66E7E6E8E8SE75SE86
G15
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1 day agoSW5--SW5SW54NW3--NW3NW4N6N8N6NE45SE11
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmS3S6SW3S3SW3S3S8SW6SW10SW9S7SW9SW10SW10--SW10S8SW7SW4S4S4

Tide / Current Tables for Northville, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:37 AM EDT     -1.84 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:12 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 07:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:40 AM EDT     1.29 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:37 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:48 PM EDT     -1.57 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:08 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:51 PM EDT     1.61 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 10:32 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-1.3-1.7-1.8-1.5-1-0.20.71.21.31.10.5-0.3-1-1.4-1.6-1.3-0.8-0.10.81.51.61.51

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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