Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Baiting Hollow, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 4:25PM Saturday December 14, 2019 2:20 PM EST (19:20 UTC) Moonrise 7:55PMMoonset 10:21AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1233 Pm Est Sat Dec 14 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
.gale warning in effect from 6 pm est this evening through Sunday afternoon...
This afternoon..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of light rain with areas of drizzle. Areas of fog. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Tonight..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
ANZ300 1233 Pm Est Sat Dec 14 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Deepening low pressure to the south will track north and west of the waters today, passing north tonight into Sunday. The trailing cold front will pass through the waters this evening. High pressure will build across late Sunday night. Another low pressure system will then impact the waters Monday through Tuesday, followed by high pressure on Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baiting Hollow CDP, NY
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location: 40.97, -72.74     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 141807 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 107 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure moves across the region today, then moves to the north of the area tonight into Sunday. High pressure will briefly build in for Sunday night, then move offshore Monday. A frontal system will impact the region Monday through Tuesday, followed by high pressure to close out the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Low pressure located over SE PA tracks north with an occluded front moving through. Mid levels remain somewhat dry. Areas of drizzle or light rain can be expected across the forecast area as a result. Fog is not dense at the moment, but still a concern with light to calm winds and saturated low levels. Highs in the 50s at most locations with a few 60 degree readings over Long Island.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/. Early this evening the surface low and upper low will be north of the area with the negative trough axis lifting through. Upper levels will be quickly drying this evening so have lowered probabilities to chance, and then slight chance to no probabilities through early this evening. Any rain will be light. Again, may be too slow with the ending of the precipitation as heights will be rising and the atmosphere continues to dry, even at the lower levels this evening. By 05Z precipitation should be finished.

The upper flow becomes nearly zonal late tonight through Sunday, and a progressive pattern develops. The next trough will be digging into the western states Sunday, and track quickly into the area for Monday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. With near zonal flow a progressive patter develops, and dry conditions will be short lived into early Monday. Surface high briefly builds behind the departing low to the north, and moves offshore Monday. Breezy conditions will be diminishing Sunday night as the high builds.

The next system to impact the forecast area comes Monday as the high pushes offshore and a warm front develops and approaches from the southwest while at the same time, an area of low pressure develops over the Ohio Valley. There is some uncertainty as to how quickly the cold air will be replaced as high pressure tracks off shore Monday. With the progressive low have leaned toward a slightly warmer solutions, unlike the GFS and ECMWF. This low is forecast to track along the frontal boundary, moving in the vicinity of the forecast area Tuesday. Models show that the low will not be particularly strong as it heads over our region, but there could be a period of moderate precipitation Monday night associated with the approaching warm front.

Uncertainty with model solutions Monday night onward will make precipitation type difficult to forecast at this point. However, do think thermal profiles will be cold enough at the start to support all snow at the start for most places, with a quick changeover to rain along the coast by mid Monday morning. However, QPF amounts will be light at this point, so little in the way of accumulation is expected.

Despite warming aloft, there may be enough cold air in the lower levels where there may be an extended period of wintry precipitation inland, with freezing rain among the precipitation types. Again, this is 4 to 5 days out and the forecast is likely to change over the next couple of days.

Associated cold front will move through late Monday night into Tuesday. Canadian high pressure builds in Wednesday through the end of next week, bringing below normal temperatures, but dry conditions.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Low pressure eastern pennsylvania will continue to lift north and west of the terminals this afternoon. The low then passes north tonight into Sunday. The trailing cold front will move across the area this evening.

Winds across the area terminals are quite variable as low pressure remains near the region. Winds will gradually become southerly this afternoon and evening and increase to 10-15 kt. Winds then significantly increase this evening behind the cold front with W-SW winds 15-20 G25-35kt.

Widespread IFR/LIFR through much of today with improvement to VFR in late this evening following the cold frontal passage. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Sunday afternoon. VFR. West winds around 20kt,G25-35kt. Sunday night-Monday. VFR. W wind gusts diminish to 20 kt Sunday night. Monday night-Tuesday. MVFR to IFR possible. Chance of snow for inland terminals changing to a wintry mix and then to rain. Chance of mainly rain for coastal terminals, with a period of snow or a wintry mix at the start early Monday night. Wednesday. VFR with NW gusts 25-30kt. Thursday. Mainly VFR.

MARINE.

Low pressure over SE PA will rapidly deepen while lifting north today into tonight. The trailing cold front will work across the waters this evening. SCA conditions will precede the cold front across the ocean waters today with winds becoming southerly by late. Dense fog advisory remains in effect on all waters through this afternoon with light winds and saturated low levels. Gale Warning remains in effect for all waters tonight and Sunday.

A W-SW gale develops across the waters early this evening as the low continues to deepen to the north. Gusts up to 40 kt will be possible across all waters through the day on Sunday. Seas on the ocean will remain high, 7 to 11 ft today, and 8 to 13 ft tonight into Sunday. Seas tonight will build up to 6 ft on eastern Long Island, possibly higher on Sunday.

Winds begin to diminish late in the day Sunday, but should fall below SCA around daybreak Monday. The ocean waters may see SCA wind conditions once again Tuesday as a developing low move in the vicinity.

HYDROLOGY. Any additional rain accumulation today into this evening will be very light. The only remaining flooding concerns are for the larger stem rivers in CT where levels continue to gradually rise into this evening due to a combination of the recent rainfall and melting snow to the north.

Another significant rainfall event is possible Monday through Tuesday, with liquid equivalent QPF of 0.5 to 1.25 inches possible. There is uncertainty in this amount given uncertainty in the track of the low and frontal positions.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Minor coastal coastal flooding is expected along the south shore bays of Nassau and Queens with the morning high tide cycle, and along the coast of SW CT and S Westchester early this afternoon. This is due to a storm system that has provided a prolonged period of onshore flow along with relatively high astronomical tides due to a nearly full moon. There is also the potential for waters levels to touch moderate in the back bays of Nassau.

Elsewhere, localized minor flooding is possible along the most vulnerable locales of lower NY Harbor, eastern bays and north shore of LI, and along SE CT.

This is a one high tide cycle event.

Along the Atlantic Ocean beach front breaking surf of 8 to 13 ft (highest eastern LI) will cause significant beach flooding and erosion during the times of high tide today into tonight. Scattered areas of dune erosion and localized washovers are possible during the times of high tide Saturday morning into afternoon.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for CTZ009-010. NY . Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ071. NJ . None. MARINE . Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ330-335- 338-340-345-350-353-355. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350- 353-355.

SYNOPSIS . 19 NEAR TERM . JC/19 SHORT TERM . 19 LONG TERM . JP/19 AVIATION . BC MARINE . JC HYDROLOGY . 19 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 23 mi50 min ENE 5.1 G 8 47°F 43°F990.9 hPa
44069 26 mi50 min S 9.7 G 12 50°F 41°F50°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 27 mi56 min Calm G 2.9 52°F 44°F990.9 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 42 mi35 min SSE 12 G 14 53°F 990 hPa53°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 42 mi50 min 55°F 47°F992.8 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 44 mi50 min SSW 6 G 8 52°F 44°F992 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 45 mi35 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 46°F 1 ft46°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY11 mi27 minS 10 G 170.25 miFog55°F55°F100%991.9 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY12 mi84 minS 11 G 160.50 miFog60°F57°F93%992.4 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY22 mi84 minSSE 80.25 miFog57°F57°F100%992 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT23 mi27 minN 01.00 miFog/Mist52°F51°F97%991.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmN3NE3CalmSE7SE7SE6SE7SE8SE7SE6SE6SE4E5
2 days agoW5SW3W5CalmW6W7W8W8W7NW11
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--------CalmNW4NW8N2N12
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N11--N8

Tide / Current Tables for Northville, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:24 AM EST     -1.56 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:34 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:25 AM EST     1.75 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:19 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:45 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:02 PM EST     -1.83 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:40 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:54 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:57 PM EST     1.27 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:01 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.2-1.5-1.5-1-0.40.31.11.71.71.30.7-0.2-1.1-1.6-1.8-1.6-1.1-0.50.311.31.10.70

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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