Thursday, January23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Sinai, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:59PM Thursday January 23, 2020 3:05 PM EST (20:05 UTC) Moonrise 7:22AMMoonset 4:47PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 847 Am Est Thu Jan 23 2020
Today..N winds around 5 kt, becoming W around 5 kt late this morning and afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Sat..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain.
Sat night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Rain in the evening, then chance of rain and sleet after midnight.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..W winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 847 Am Est Thu Jan 23 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure will remain across the area through Friday. Low pressure tracks across the region over the weekend and into the maritimes on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Sinai, NY
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location: 40.97, -73.03     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 231540 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1040 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will remain across the area through Friday. Low pressure tracks across the region over the weekend and into the Maritimes on Monday. A cold frontal passage is possible around the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Forecast updated with latest observations and trends. Forecast on track with high pressure remaining across the area today.

Ridge remains in place today as mid west trough makes slow eastward progress. A good deal of sunshine is expected, with perhaps some high clouds moving in from time to time. Temperatures look to rebound slightly higher than yesterday, peaking in the 40s. Undercut MOS slightly.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Upper ridge moves east as mid west trough deepens and closes off before barreling toward the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region Friday night.

High clouds should increase through the period, and light winds turn toward the NE, then east as sfc high moves across the Canadian Province of Quebec.

Temperatures fall into the teens and 20s tonight, except in NYC metro, as radiational cooling takes place (mainly clear skies and light winds).

On Friday, temperatures warm through the 40s, perhaps touching 50 in a few spots.

With increasing clouds Friday night along with a freshening east wind, temperatures will be much milder than past nights, remaining in the 30s, except some 20s across the interior.

Any precipitation likely holds off until late at night per 00Z model consensus (rain with a wintry mix possible NW of NYC).

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The models, including the ensembles, are in good agreement with the track and timing of the low over the weekend. The NAM and ECMWF are in particularly good agreement for this far out with the track and intensity of the surface low. Overall, not many changes were required for this cycle. The expectation is still there for a wintry mix at the onset over the interior, then a change to all rain through the day on Saturday as the low passes potentially right over NYC. Less than an inch, if any, of snow is expected over the interior. The main winter threat at this time appears to be mainly freezing rain and sleet before the changeover. If the current track holds, the area looks to be dry slotted by the second half of Saturday night at the latest, with any wrap around likely relegated to areas north and west of the forecast area on Sunday. There is still some time to fine tune the track, so low probabilities were maintained for these periods.

Northwesterly winds on Monday as the low reaches the Canadian Maritimes. A weak surface high is progged to be build in however, so wind gusts below 30 kt before they substantially decrease by evening. The high is likely to keep the area dry on Tuesday, then the GFS suggests a cold frontal passaged with some light snow possible on Wednesday. Not much agreement from the ECMWF, so the forecast was kept dry for now. The NBM with local adjustments was used for the temperature forecast.

AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. High pressure will remain over the area through tonight.

VFR through the TAF period. SW winds 5-8 kt through the afternoon become light and variable tonight.

NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments:No unscheduled amendments expected.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN . which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. Friday. VFR. Saturday. MVFR/IFR in rain at the coast, mixed precipitation across the interior likely changing to rain. E winds 10-20G20-25 kt during the day diminish at night. Sunday. MVFR/IFR possible in lingering showers. Rain/snow mix possible in any showers across the interior. Monday. VFR.

MARINE. With persistently light winds over the waters thanks to high pressure, seas remain 1 ft or less. This will continue to be the case today and tonight. Winds then turn to the NE, and east Friday into Friday night. As the waters sit between high pressure to the northeast and an approaching low pressure and frontal system, easterly winds increase quickly Friday night, which will result in building seas.

Gales are possible on Saturday ahead of an approaching low. As the low passes early Sunday, advisory level criteria can be expected on the ocean, and will be possible elsewhere. The ocean may linger at or close to advisory levels through Tuesday, with the remaining waters expected to remain below advisory levels at this time.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are expected through next Wednesday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. An easterly flow of 15-25 kt with relatively high astronomical high tides following a new moon Friday will bring the threat of at least minor coastal flooding during the high tides cycles of Saturday morning and evening. A good portion of the south shore back bays of Long Island (including Queens and Brooklyn) could be impacted as well as lower NY Harbor and Western Long Island Sound. Some of the more vulnerable locations may reach moderate thresholds. Other areas could be impacted if the track of the upcoming weekend storm changes.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . PW NEAR TERM . SHORT TERM . PW LONG TERM . AVIATION . CB/DS MARINE . PW HYDROLOGY . PW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 16 mi48 min SW 5.1 G 7 40°F 38°F1027 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 23 mi48 min SW 5.1 G 6 39°F 37°F1027.1 hPa
44022 - Execution Rocks 37 mi36 min S 3.9 G 3.9 42°F 32°F27°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 40 mi48 min W 4.1 G 4.1 44°F 38°F1028 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY12 mi70 minSW 410.00 miOvercast45°F21°F39%1027.6 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY14 mi70 minS 310.00 miFair44°F24°F45%1027.8 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT15 mi14 minSW 59.00 miFair41°F26°F55%1027.6 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY23 mi73 minSSW 510.00 miFair41°F24°F53%1028.1 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT23 mi13 minWSW 610.00 miFair42°F24°F49%1027.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KISP

Wind History from ISP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5W7SW8SW6SW3SW4
1 day agoN12N8NW9N5N5N4N6N6N3N4N6N4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3NW63NW63W4
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Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Beach, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Stony Brook, Smithtown Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Stony Brook
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:59 AM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:22 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:08 AM EST     6.55 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:48 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:37 PM EST     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:58 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:39 PM EST     5.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.22.91.50.4-00.41.63.14.766.56.25.23.82.20.7-0.3-0.40.31.63.14.65.55.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.