Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Napeague, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1. Milder and predominantly dry today into Saturday.

2. Potential fire weather concerns Saturday.

3. Noticeably warmer next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
A high pressure ridge will be in place today providing milder temperatures and dry conditions. Other than a southerly wind off the colder ocean during the afternoon keeping coastal locations relatively cooler, temperatures overall will be noticeably milder than the past several days. A shortwave will pass to the north tonight into Saturday morning. This will push a cold front through the region late tonight and early Saturday morning. The front for the most part will pass through dry, although there will be a chance of a few brief showers mainly across northern portions of the area tonight as the shortwave lifts up into Northern New England and SE Canada.

KEY MESSAGE 2
The combination of NW winds gusting 20 to 25 mph, minimum RH values of 25 to 35 percent, and low fuel moisture, will likely lead to an elevated threat for wildfire spread Saturday. No special products have been issued as of yet, but ongoing collaboration with state land managers may result in a fire related product.

Kept continuity with previous fcst and went above the NBM for wind speeds/gusts, and decreased dew points slightly on Saturday as the NBM is typically too high with dew points, and too low with winds in these well-mixed NW flow situations.

KEY MESSAGE 3
The models are in good agreement with a notable warmup into next week. A warm front lifts to the NW of the area Sunday night into Monday as H85 temps approach 10 to 12C. Also the low level flow will generally be W or WSW. Therefore most, if not all areas will warm up quite a bit, even at the coasts. As is often the case this time of year with any warm up attempts, seas breeze development will likely make pushes during the afternoon / evening time frame most days. The question will be whether the flow aloft will be strong enough at times to hold off the inland push of any sea breezes. Stuck with the NBM numbers for now, but these numbers may be too low based on the flow and can be adjusted in subsequent cycles as needed. Towards Wed there is good agreement among forecast guidance that H85 temps approach 15 to 16C which would theoretically result in sfc temperatures getting well into the 80s across most areas away from the immediate shore.

AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A cold front approaches late today into this evening and passes through late tonight. This will give a brief round of showers that probably not even reach all terminals.

Category forecast is mainly VFR through the TAF period. Initially, into this morning, some MVFR to LIFR, mainly for stratus, is forecast for some of the terminals along the coast. Some fog with vsby restrictions down to MVFR to LIFR is possible as well. A few terminals have higher chances of showers and brief MVFR late tonight, such as KSWF, KHPN and KBDR.

Wind forecast starts out light, at or less than 5 kts, with variable direction into early this morning. Then, winds pick up from S-SW, increasing to near 10-15 kt for the rest of the day. There will be some gusts to near 20 kt for the afternoon, especially with sea breeze enhancement. Winds slightly decrease this evening and then switch to more NW direction behind the cold front late tonight without much additional change in speed.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of MVFR and IFR could be off by a few hours in TAF.

Some fluctuation can be expected between scattered and broken coverage of the low stratus, thereby making for fluctuation of categories between MVFR and VFR or IFR and VFR.

Timing of showers could be a few hours off from TAF.

KJFK could have southerly winds reach near 20 kt late in the afternoon with gusts near 25-30 kt possible for a brief time.


OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Late Tonight: Showers ending, mainly VFR. NW wind gusts near 20 kt possible.

Saturday: VFR. NW winds G20kt.

Sunday: VFR.

Monday: VFR. SW winds G20kt.

Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Small craft conditions are expected to develop on the ocean waters later today, mainly by the late afternoon as seas climb to around feet late today into this evening and gusts approach 25 kt on the ocean, especially closer to shore. Ocean seas get closer to 6 ft tonight and then should begin to subside gradually during the day on Saturday. By later Saturday afternoon seas are expected to fall below small craft criteria. Sub advisory conditions will be short lived on the ocean as small craft conditions are likely to return by early Monday morning as a cold front draws closer from the west. A S flow ahead of the front should get wind gusts to 25 kt on most waters on Monday with ocean seas getting close to 6 feet. Sub advisory conditions likely will not return until late Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure builds.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-355.