Tuesday, January26, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shoreham, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 5:03PM Tuesday January 26, 2021 4:15 PM EST (21:15 UTC) Moonrise 3:50PMMoonset 6:38AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 329 Pm Est Tue Jan 26 2021
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight, then becoming N late. Waves 1 ft or less. Light rain, mainly this evening.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of light rain and light snow in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft after midnight. Chance of light rain and light snow in the evening.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ300 329 Pm Est Tue Jan 26 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak low pressure moves south and east of long island tonight into Wednesday. A trough of low pressure also lingers near the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. A coastal storm develops and passes south of the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure then slowly builds back in through Saturday. Another low pressure system will then approach from the west and southwest either late this weekend or early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shoreham, NY
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location: 41, -72.86     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 262043 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 343 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

SYNOPSIS. Weak low pressure moves south and east of Long Island tonight into Wednesday. A trough of low pressure also lingers near the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. A coastal storm develops and passes south of the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure then slowly builds back in through Saturday. Another low pressure system will then approach from the west and southwest either late this weekend or early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. Band of overrunning precipitation continues to rapidly move east across the region. The overall progression has been a bit faster compared to the previous forecast, with the widespread steadier rates residing over southeast CT and eastern LI. Of note, snow growth has largely been poor with graupel mixed in at times here at the NWS office.

The precipitation has become spottier across the western half of the region. It appears the deeper saturation is moving east along the initial batch of the precip. This means PTYPE will be a challenge this evening, especially over the NYC/NJ metro where temperatures could be running right around freezing during the evening commute. A colder thermal profile further inland across the Lower Hudson Valley and interior Connecticut supports a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain. The intensity of the precip should be on the light side this evening and tonight, but a few convective elements could briefly increase the intensity of the precip. This may be when the better chance of snow will exist across the interior, with lighter rates supporting more of a light sleet and freezing rain mix. At the coast, a cold, light rain is expected. At times the precip could even be in the form drizzle.

The probability of precipitation decreases overnight, but a continued chance of light wintry mix inland and light rain near the coast.

Forecast total snow and sleet of generally 1-2 inches across the interior. Local amounts could reach close to 3 inches if light snow were able to persist over sleet and freezing rain. Total amounts of under an inch in the NYC/NJ metro with just a track to possibly a few tenths on Long Island. Much of the snow/sleet has ended across the NYC metro.

The Winter Weather Advisory remains in place with no changes made. The main concern is with a light glaze from freezing rain/drizzle this evening in the NYC/NJ metro. Snow/sleet amounts further inland are bit higher, but even there the advisory is more for potential icing concerns. Will also have to monitor temperatures trends across northern Long Island. Recent obs have been running close to the freezing mark. The precip intensity is beginning to wind down and with an easterly flow, the temperature should rise above freezing. If the temperatures stays closer to freezing and there is light precip around, then an advisory may be needed.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Weak low pressure passes well offshore on Wednesday. An initial shortwave moves east of New England in the morning. There may be brief ridging aloft for a few hours late morning into the afternoon, before another shortwave is likely to approach. A trough of low pressure is probable to set up across eastern portions of the region. Due to the nearly consistent shortwave energy aloft and the low pressure trough, a low chance PoP remains in the forecast across eastern LI and eastern CT. Boundary layer temps look a bit warmer in the middle to upper 30s. The depth of moisture continues to look shallow, but the low level thermal profile on forecast soundings is a little colder. For these reasons, will just go with a light snow wording inland and light snow/light rain wording near the coast. The intensity should be very light and could end up just being flurries or sprinkles. Little to no additional accumulation is forecast with any light snow on Wednesday.

Model guidance has been struggling with the placement of the low pressure trough on Wednesday night. Have kept a slight chance in the forecast out east, but it is possible this sets up east of the area with drier conditions returning areawide.

Conditions otherwise will be mostly cloudy into Wednesday night. Lows will be in the 20s for most locations with lower 30s in the NYC metro.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. The long term period will feature two main events. The first will be the cold Friday and Saturday, and the second will be the potential for a coastal storm sometime in the late weekend or early next week timeframe.

Before then, mainly dry weather is expected on Thursday as an area of low pressure passes south and east of the region. Meanwhile, strong high pressure will begin building south and east from the southern Canadian prairies. With the region in-between these two systems, a strong pressure gradient will develop. Expect a stretch of windy conditions for Thursday and Friday. As high pressure builds over the region to begin the weekend the winds will relax for Saturday and Saturday night. Friday and Saturday will be one of the colder 2 day periods of the winter thus far, with temperatures both days not getting out of the 20s. Overnight lows fall into the single digits and teens.

The next forecast challenge comes late this weekend into early next week with the approach of the next coastal storm. Most of the long range forecasts are indicating some impact to the local area with this next low, however there are timing differences with each of them. The GFS is the fastest of the models, with precipitation moving in Sunday afternoon/evening, while the slowest of the models is the ECMWF, which doesn't bring the precip in until Monday evening. As with most storms this far out, the other unknown will be the track this storm will take. Generally speaking, temperatures should be cold enough for snow to start, however the GFS brings the low close enough for the snow to mix with and change over to snow along the coast. The ECMWF/Canadian keep the system a little further offshore, meaning less of a chance for change over. Overall, this will be a system that will have to be watched for perhaps some winter weather impacts, but there is low confidence and high uncertainty with respect to intensity and precip type for the longevity / duration of the potential event.

AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Low pres will pass south of the region tngt, leaving a trough over the area on Wed.

A wintry mix will continue to impact the terminals this eve. The primary wx type this eve is expected to be fzdz or dz, with embedded pockets of sn and pl. The fzdz or dz will then linger thru the overnight and into Wed mrng.

An additional band of snow may rotate thru the area in the 5-10z time period, especially north and east of the NYC arpts. A tempo has been included for this.

Mainly IFR or lower thru tngt. Cond gradually improve to MVFR on Wed. There is a low chance that cond become VFR aft 18Z.

ENE-E flow into this eve, then the flow backs to the N tngt, eventually becoming NW on Wed.

Up to an inch of additional snow is possible north of the NYC terminals. Little to no accumulation is expected elsewhere.

Light icing is expected at all terminals except for ISP.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Amendments are likely for timing of the changeover from fzdz to dz this eve. There is a chance for a band of snow to impact the area in the 5-10Z time period. The prob was too low to include in the TAFs attm.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Rest of Wed. Becoming MVFR. Thu. VFR with NW winds gusting up to 35kt. Fri. VFR with NW winds gusting up to 40kt. Sat. VFR. Sun. Becoming MVFR or lower.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Weak low pressure passes just south and east of the waters tonight. Winds on the ocean have stayed below 25 kt this afternoon. Seas will be between 3 and 4 ft through tonight. With an easterly fetch, they could briefly reach 5 ft east of Moriches inlet. The low moves further east on Wednesday. Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels during this time. Another low pressure develops off the southeast coast Wednesday night. The pressure gradient over the waters begins to increase with potential of winds gusting to 25 kt on the ocean by early Thursday morning.

Low pressure intensifies Thursday with SCA conditions expected on the area waters. Gales will become increasingly likely on the ocean waters Thursday night and into Friday, with the potential for gales on the non-ocean waters. Conditions are expected to subside back below SCA conditions for the second half of Saturday from west to east as high pressure begins to settle north of the waters for later Saturday and Saturday night. Conditions build back to SCA levels early next week with the approach of another low pressure system.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic concerns are anticipated through the upcoming weekend.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for CTZ005>012. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ067>071. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NYZ072>075-176-178. NJ . Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for NJZ002- 004-103-104. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NJZ006- 105>108. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . BC/DS NEAR TERM . DS SHORT TERM . DS LONG TERM . BC AVIATION . JMC MARINE . BC/DS HYDROLOGY . BC/DS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 20 mi76 min NE 5.1 G 8 29°F 37°F1015.5 hPa (-2.2)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 21 mi76 min ENE 6 G 12 29°F 39°F1013.8 hPa (-2.1)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 47 mi66 min ENE 11 G 14 31°F 1012.2 hPa18°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 48 mi56 min E 18 G 21 36°F 45°F1013.5 hPa34°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 48 mi76 min 33°F 38°F1013.9 hPa (-2.6)
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 48 mi76 min 29°F 32°F1014.4 hPa (-2.8)

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY12 mi20 minVar 44.00 miLight Rain35°F30°F82%1013.2 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY16 mi23 minE 77.00 miLight Rain34°F31°F89%1013.4 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT19 mi23 minENE 72.00 miFog/Mist31°F28°F89%1013.3 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY19 mi20 minE 71.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist33°F32°F96%1012.3 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT19 mi24 minENE 103.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist31°F28°F89%1013.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHWV

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4NW3NW7N6N76--N4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE63CalmCalm44--5Calm444
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Tide / Current Tables for Herod Point, Long Island Sound, New York
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Herod Point
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Tue -- 02:54 AM EST     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:38 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:10 AM EST     6.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:49 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:31 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:01 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:40 PM EST     5.59 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.91.70.90.6123.44.75.86.3653.62.20.90.10.10.823.44.65.45.54.9

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:33 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:23 AM EST     1.50 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:36 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:32 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:45 AM EST     -1.54 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:33 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:48 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:54 PM EST     1.09 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 05:00 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:38 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:51 PM EST     -1.40 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.8-0.30.31.11.51.51.20.5-0.4-1-1.4-1.5-1.3-1-0.40.411.110.5-0.3-0.9-1.3-1.4

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.