Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shoreham, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 7:43PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 11:45 AM EDT (15:45 UTC) Moonrise 10:55PMMoonset 11:43AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ345 South Shore Bays From Jones Inlet Through Shinnecock Bay- 1029 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds around 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Chance of tstms.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms in the evening. Chance of showers.
Fri..N winds around 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat..N winds around 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..E winds around 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1029 Am Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will slowly approach the waters through Thursday, passing Thursday night. High pressure builds in behind the front through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shoreham, NY
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location: 41, -72.86     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 211429
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1029 am edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will slowly approach through Thursday. The front
moves across and southeast of the region Thursday night. The
front will move farther southeast of the region Friday into the
weekend as high pressure builds in from the north. Weak low
pressure areas and a frontal system approach early into the
middle next week.

Near term through tonight
Forecast updated mainly for showers and scattered thunderstorms
approaching from the west and likely moving into some the nw
zones this morning as well as activity moving out of new london
county. Rest of the forecast is mostly on track.

Several hazards today. The first is the severe threat, which right
now looks to be focused on the afternoon and evening. Heat and
humidity will result in an unstable airmass, with surface based cape
approaching 3000 j kg at times. Gently falling heights could trigger
activity at any time, but the best focus is after 18z when a
shortwave approaches. This will enhance both lift and shear,
allowing for better organization of cells. The primary threat will
be damaging winds, but 0-1 km EHI in the 1-3 range and veering low
level winds supports an isolated tornado threat. There is also a
hail threat is the best organized storms.

Limiting factors for convection will be any activity prior to the
peak threat time working over the atmosphere or limiting
instability. This is entirely possible with CIN eroding quickly this
morning and falling heights.

The second hazard is heat. Dewpoints are already overperforming,
with islip at 76 this morning. In addition, it does not seem likely
that conditions will improve before the cold front comes through,
which is not until Thu night. Based on this, a heat advisory was
issued for nyc and the adjacent portions of nj and long island. It
is possible that this advisory will need to be expanded based on
what happens today what is expected on thu, as many areas are just
forecast to remain below the 95 degree heat index threshold.

There is the potential that areas in the advisory fall short today
and therefore need to be canceled for thu. Widespread convection
could impact MAX heat indices today.

The third hazard is a high rip current risk. It will primarily be
moderate today, but late this afternoon and evening southerly flow
builds seas to around 5 ft, requiring the issuance of a high risk.

Finally, there is an isolated flash flood risk where the heaviest
storms concentrate. This will likely be near boundaries with storm
motion otherwise east around 10 kt.

The precipitation is expected to wind down from west to east
late this evening as the upper support exits. There could be
some patchy fog late with a residual moist environment.

Short term Thursday
The models have backed off on thunderstorm chances for the bulk of
thu, but with the cold front still on the doorstep, at least slight
chances have been retained, particularly in the afternoon. Dewpoints
are modeled to be a bit lower with more of a westerly component to
the wind. However, the models have been a bit low in general, so as
previously mentioned a more humid forecast has been issued.

There is a moderate rip current risk for thu.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Upper trough moves near and eventually northeast of the region
Thursday night into start of weekend. Upper level ridging moves
across for the weekend into early next week. Solution consistent
between GFS and canadian models but ECMWF model breaks off a piece
of the trough and keeps it near region as weak upper level low for
the weekend. For next week, the ridge eventually moves east of the
region with a weak trough approaching from the west.

At the surface, the cold front will be within the region to start
Thursday night and by Friday morning should be southeast of long
island. The front will continue moving southeast of long island
going into the weekend. GFS and canadian models likewise show a more
steady front movement southeast of long island while ECMWF shows a
little slower movement and closer proximity of low pressure to the
region along the front.

For weather, a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms
Thursday evening but would expect thunder chances to decrease with
the more northerly flow developing behind the front and overall
instability trending downward. Showers chances linger into Friday
morning. Then, dry conditions are forecast for the much of the
weekend. Depending on how low pressure trends along the front to the
south and a frontal system approaching from the west going into
early to middle of next week, there could be a return to rain in the
forecast. Currently, it seems this scenario is more of a low end
possibility, so limited rain to slight chance, with mainly dry
conditions anticipated.

Temperatures overall forecast to be slightly below normal.

Aviation 14z Wednesday through Sunday
A trough of low pressure develops this afternoon ahead of an
approaching cold front, with showers and thunderstorms becoming
likely.

MainlyVFR MVFR this morning, except ifr in patchy stratus, or
an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Coverage of showers and
thunderstorms will increase this afternoon, with MVFR or ifr
possible in any thunderstorm. Thunderstorm chances diminish
later this evening and overnight.

Southerly winds increase to 10-15 kt late this morning, with
gusts to around 20 kt possible at the nyc terminals during the
afternoon. Winds lighten from the SW this evening and overnight.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 20 mi46 min S 7 G 9.9 78°F 78°F1013.6 hPa
44069 24 mi61 min SW 12 G 18 77°F 80°F76°F
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 47 mi16 min SE 5.1 G 6 74°F 73°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 48 mi26 min SW 16 G 18 77°F 1015 hPa72°F
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 48 mi46 min 76°F 73°F1014.7 hPa (-1.8)
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 48 mi46 min SSW 5.1 G 6 77°F 69°F1014.2 hPa (-1.8)

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY12 mi50 minSSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F73°F72%1014.4 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY16 mi53 minSSW 610.00 miOvercast79°F75°F90%1015.1 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT19 mi53 minSE 610.00 miOvercast82°F77°F85%1014.2 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY19 mi1.8 hrsWSW 910.00 miOvercast80°F75°F85%1014.6 hPa
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT19 mi54 minSW 710.00 miA Few Clouds81°F73°F79%1014.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHWV

Wind History from HWV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr5S4SW8SW8S7--S10S5S4CalmCalmS3----------SE4S5SE5----S6SW8
1 day agoS8S9S9S9
G16
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SW11W8CalmSW4CalmSW3------W3N3N4--CalmN5N6N6N6
2 days agoS7S8S7S8SW8SW8S8SW9SW10SW7W6--------S8----W4CalmSW5--S5S9

Tide / Current Tables for Herod Point, Long Island Sound, New York
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Herod Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:15 AM EDT     5.91 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:20 AM EDT     0.73 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:38 PM EDT     6.25 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:53 PM EDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.24.55.45.95.74.83.52.21.30.80.91.62.94.35.46.16.25.64.331.810.81.2

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:42 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:50 AM EDT     -1.34 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:32 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:06 AM EDT     1.23 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 02:14 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:20 PM EDT     -1.26 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:10 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:28 PM EDT     1.05 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.5-0.2-0.9-1.3-1.3-1.1-0.7-0.20.30.91.21.10.80.2-0.6-1.1-1.2-1.2-0.8-0.5-0.10.51

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.