Thursday, August13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Asharoken, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 7:56PM Thursday August 13, 2020 10:17 PM EDT (02:17 UTC) Moonrise 12:37AMMoonset 3:39PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 607 Pm Edt Thu Aug 13 2020
Tonight..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers early this evening. Patchy fog late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 607 Pm Edt Thu Aug 13 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A slow moving cold front will slide south of long island this evening. The front moves further south Friday into Friday night as a wave of low pressure rides along it. High pressure builds across new england on Saturday. The high may move east on Sunday, allowing a warm front to approach, followed by a cold front on Monday. High pressure may return on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Asharoken, NY
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location: 41, -73.35     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 132343 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 743 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

SYNOPSIS. A slow moving cold front will slide south of Long Island this evening. The front moves further south Friday into Friday night as a wave of low pressure rides along it. A Ridge over eastern Canada shifts east Saturday as a shortwave advances towards southern New York from the west. The shortwave merges with the approaching longwave trough from the Great Lakes late this weekend. The longwave trough remains stationary through mid week next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. Precipitation over the area has stratified this afternoon with the atmosphere stabilizing after earlier convection. This stratiform rain should continue across Long Island and portions of coastal Connecticut the next few hours.

The cold front has sagged just south of Long Island and surface obs indicate a light northerly flow developing. This front is likely to remain just south of Long Island this evening as a shortwave passes to the south and east. Any precipitation should stay to the south, closer to the frontal boundary overnight

High pressure tries to build across New England out of southeast Canada overnight, with some drier air beginning to work into the region from the north. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies are forecast this evening as the shortwave passes, but there should be some partial clearing inland overnight. Closer to the coast, mostly cloudy skies are likely to persist through the night. Some low stratus and patchy fog is also possible given the weak flow behind the front and the likelihood that the drier low levels stay to the north.

Lows will be in the 60s inland and in the lower 70s closer to the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. A wave of low pressure develops along the stalled front to the south. The trend in the model guidance over the last several runs is to keep this wave well to the south. There may be a brief passing shower in the morning as E-NE flow begins to increase, but otherwise most locations will be dry Friday morning. The E flow in the afternoon may provide some upslope convergent flow north and west of NYC for a brief passing shower as well. Have confined PoPs to slight chance with this potential. There is also a chance that low stratus may hang on for a portion of the day near the coast. Otherwise, a near seasonable day is in store with temperatures in the lower to middle 80s.

High pressure continues to ridge down across New England Friday night as a stronger wave of low pressure passes along the front to the south. The NE flow between these two systems will keep us dry with low temperatures in the 60s for most locations.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. During the morning Saturday the ridge centered in eastern Canada dominates the overall flow regime as the associated high pressure system continues to promote relatively dry northeasterly winds. As the day progresses into the afternoon, the focus becomes more on the approaching shortwave trough exiting the Ohio River Valley. Over the weekend mid-level moisture returns to southern New York as this system approaches. Winds veer slightly and precipitable water values increase to around 2 inches. Models are indicating possible enhanced isentropic lift along the warm front late Sunday. Total QPF from these showers and possible thunderstorms is hard to pin down as amounts will be highly contingent on the location of the heavy rainfall axis. At the moment models are keeping the heaviest rainfall south of Long Island. However if the system drifts north rain amounts ranging between 1 to 2 inches total across southern New York, northeast New Jersey and southern Connecticut are not out of the questions. This means isolated flash flooding will again be possible late this weekend. Areas not affected by rainfall will see cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper 70s.

The primary longwave trough over the Great Lakes Region pivots through New York early next week. This dynamic lift from this trough may induce additional showers to start the week, but precipitable water values hover around 1.4 to 1.5 inches. Any showers in this environment should be light to moderate. As the trough axis exits New England mid week, locally long range models are depicting some slight surface ridge from a possible 1017 mb high above Pennsylvania. Subsidence should keep rain chances to a minimum but uncertainty still exists whether or not this holds through Thursday. More confidence in high temperatures which should persist in the low 80s through the week.

There is a moderate risk of Rip Currents on Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. A weak cold front south of Long Island will dissipate this evening and tonight.

Winds are expected to be very light tonight at 10kt or less E-NE, but may become light and variable for a majority of the night for most terminals. Winds at coastal terminals are expected to shift to the SE or S overnight, but will also be light. E-NE winds re- develop on Friday, generally near 10 kt, with coastal terminals shifting just south of E Friday afternoon.

A stray shower may move through some terminals Friday, but should be light, and thunder is not expected. Chances were too low to include in TAFs.

Potential for stratus developing late tonight, with MVFR conditions possible after 06Z. The best chances for MVFR conditions are KISP, KGON, and KJFK. Any stratus should lift by 14Z-15Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. Friday night. slight chance of showers with MVFR or lower conditions, mainly NYC metros/KSWF. Saturday. VFR. Sunday-Monday. Mainly VFR, except MVFR or lower in any showers/tstms. Tuesday-Wednesday. VFR.

MARINE. A weak pressure gradient tonight through Friday brings sub-SCA conditions. Easterly flow then increases Friday night. Northeast winds 17-19 kts increase to 22 to 25 kts Saturday into Sunday as a system approaches as a wave of low pressure passes offshore. SCA conditions will be likely as seas increase to near 6 feet over the ocean. Winds begin to relax late Sunday however waves may remain at or around 5 feet through Monday morning. Sub SCA conditions with light west winds 5- 10 kts begin Tuesday before shifting south by the middle of the week.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic impacts are expected through Saturday.

Precipitable water values could be around 2 inches Sunday into Monday as a warm front with heavy rain moves slowly over southern New York. QPF values between 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher amounts are not out of the question. Nuisance to minor flooding could be possible in any showers and thunderstorms, primarily in urban and other poor drainage areas.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . DJ/DS NEAR TERM . DS SHORT TERM . DS LONG TERM . DJ AVIATION . JP MARINE . DJ/DS HYDROLOGY . DJ/DS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 15 mi89 min 76°F 77°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 22 mi47 min ENE 5.8 G 7.8 76°F 75°F
44069 25 mi47 min E 3.9 G 5.8 77°F 73°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 26 mi89 min 74°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 31 mi89 min 77°F 78°F
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 41 mi89 min 79°F 77°F
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 45 mi89 min 77°F
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 47 mi37 min E 5.8 G 7.8 76°F1017.8 hPa
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 49 mi89 min 78°F 79°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT17 mi25 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds75°F70°F84%1018.6 hPa
Farmingdale - Republic Airport, NY19 mi24 minNNE 410.00 miFair76°F72°F88%1018.3 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY19 mi21 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F73°F96%1018.3 hPa
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY20 mi21 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist71°F69°F94%1018.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBDR

Wind History from BDR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW5SW5CalmN5N6N5NE7NE7NE6NE7NE6E8SE10NE4E4E4E5E4CalmCalmSE5CalmCalm
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2 days agoS6S7S7S7S5SW4SW5SW4SW6SW4S7SW8S10S9S10S13S12S14S12
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Tide / Current Tables for Eatons Neck Point, Long Island Sound, New York
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Eatons Neck Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:06 AM EDT     1.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:02 AM EDT     6.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:16 PM EDT     1.57 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:24 PM EDT     7.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.31.62.63.855.86.25.953.92.921.61.82.745.36.57.176.253.7

Tide / Current Tables for Greens Ledge, Connecticut
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Greens Ledge
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:58 AM EDT     1.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:58 AM EDT     6.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:07 PM EDT     1.63 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:20 PM EDT     7.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.41.82.845.266.3653.92.821.61.92.94.25.66.77.37.16.353.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.