Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 8:31 PM Moonrise 2:10 AM   Moonset 11:47 AM

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LEZ144 Expires:202405011430;;419351 Fzus51 Kcle 010746 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 346 am edt Wed may 1 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez142>144-011430- maumee bay to reno beach oh-reno beach to the islands oh- the islands to vermilion oh- 346 am edt Wed may 1 2024
Today - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - West winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday.
the water temperature off toledo is 57 degrees, off cleveland 50 degrees, and off erie 51 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 011714 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 114 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will continue north across the area early today as high pressure shifts slightly to the east. A weak cold front will approach the area from the northwest tonight and stall out across northern Ohio. This front will lift back north as a cold front on Thursday. A cold front will cross the area on Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
1230 PM...The mid-deck this morning has mostly scattered out early this afternoon with some scattered diurnal cu developing out west ahead of an approaching cold front. Can't rule out a brief isolated shower/storm somewhere later this afternoon, but chances appear limited given very dry air in the sfc-700 mb layer.

Previous Discussion...
A fairly uneventful near term forecast is on tap through Thursday. A warm front will lift north across the forecast area this morning and behind the front, winds will increase out of the southwest this afternoon and some mid-level clouds will enter the region. Temperatures will continue their well above normal trend with highs in the upper 70s for most. A weakening cold front will enter from the northwest tonight and may keep some scattered clouds across the region. Lows tonight will be on par with low temperatures this morning. This front will settle across the forecast area to start on Thursday. Areas north of the front will have some light flow off Lake Erie and allow for more seasonable high temperatures with 60s and lower 70s. Areas south of the front will remain with above normal warmth and highs in the lower 80s will be possible.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
The axis of an upper level ridge of high pressure over the Upper Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes regions will move eastward Thursday night. A large upper level trough will be over centered over the north central U.S. border into south central Canada Thursday night into Friday. A weak mid level wave in the 500 mb flow will track from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the southern Great Lakes region by Friday morning. A weak warm front will lift northward across northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania Thursday night. There will be a slight chance for a few showers with this warm front over NW OH late Thursday night.

A weak cold front will track eastward across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region on Friday. We will see a return flow of low level moisture and warm air advection ahead of this approaching weak front. High temperatures will be very warm again in the upper 70s to lower 80s Friday afternoon. At this time, thermodynamics looks relatively weak with limited instability up to 1000 J/kg of mixed layer CAPE and Bulk shear values up to 30 knots. With limited atmospheric energy, we expect scattered rain showers and a few general thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. This front will slow down and perhaps stall out or gradually wash out near the Ohio/Pennsylvania state line early Saturday.

The upper level trough axis will move from the north central U.S.
into the Upper Great Lakes region on Saturday. Another weak mid level impulse in the 500 mb flow will track around the base of the trough through the Ohio Valley Saturday evening. Another weak cold and slow moving front will approach the area from the west late Saturday into Saturday night. Scatter rain showers and a few general thunderstorms will be around for Saturday and Saturday night with chance to likely POPs lingering in the forecast. Temperatures will be cooler in the upper 60s to middle 70s due to cloud cover and rain chances.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A slow moving and weak frontal boundary will slowly try to push eastward through the area Sunday. We will maintain chance POPs for showers and isolated thunder on Sunday. The higher rain chances Sunday will be over our eastern CWA There will be a gradual decrease in POPs and cloud cover from west to east late on Sunday. A weak area of high pressure will build over the area briefly on Monday with slightly drier weather. A warm front will lift through the Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday with additional chances for rain. And the weather pattern may continue to be a little unsettled through the middle of next week. Temperatures will also stay above average in the low to middle 70s for the early to middle of next week.

AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/
VFR across the TAF sites early this afternoon with VFR to persist through the TAF period. Can't rule out a brief isolated shower/storm somewhere across the area later this afternoon ahead of a weak cold front, but chances appear too limited to include in TAFs so have gone ahead and removed vcsh mention from CLE.

Winds are generally out of the southwest ahead of the approaching cold front, 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Winds will shift towards the west immediately behind the cold front later this afternoon and evening, decreasing to 10 knots or less after sunset. Winds may become light and variable overnight before favoring a slight east to northeast direction by Thursday morning. A lake breeze may develop at CLE/ERI late Thursday morning/early afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon through Saturday. Non-VFR may persist in additional isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.



MARINE
The weather over Lake Erie will be relatively quiet for the rest of this week into this weekend outside of any scattered thunderstorms that may move through. Winds will become west to southwest at 10 to 15 knots today. Weak high pressure will move over the lake tonight with light and variable around 5 knots tonight into Thursday morning. East to northwest winds will develop later Thursday with speeds of 5 to 12 knots as high pressure moves eastward away from the lake. Southeast winds will return 5 to 10 knots Thursday night into Friday as a warm front lifts through. Winds of 5 to 12 knots will fluctuate between East/Northeast and East/Southeast Friday night into Saturday due to a weak front moving across the area.
Winds will return from the southwest 5 to 10 knots Saturday night and Sunday. No headlines are expected for the lake through the weekend.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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