Saturday, November28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Manchester, IN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 5:17PM Saturday November 28, 2020 12:50 AM EST (05:50 UTC) Moonrise 4:31PMMoonset 5:55AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 918 Pm Est Fri Nov 27 2020
Overnight..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots subsiding to 10 to 15 knots later tonight. Clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots. A few gusts up to 25 knots. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots veering west in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature at st. Joseph is 47 degrees and at michigan city is 46 degrees.
LMZ046 Expires:202011281115;;503046 FZUS53 KIWX 280218 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Northern Indiana 918 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ046-281115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Manchester, IN
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location: 41, -85.78     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 280520 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1220 AM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 701 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

Following a tranquil weekend, snow is likely toward the Ohio and Indiana state line beginning Monday. Additionally, lake effect snow is expected toward northwest Indiana beginning Monday. It will be notably colder through the coming week.

SHORT TERM. (This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 314 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

Cloud cover will gradually diminish tonight in the wake of a departing cold front. This will result in crisp lows in the 20s. Fog cannot be ruled out given crossover temperatures as well as some saturated ground from recent rains. However, there might be just enough wind tonight to limit the fog. I have passed this on to the evening shift to monitor. High pressure will provide a tranquil weekend with sunshine; a reasonable opportunity to complete any exterior decorating before the incoming cold snap.

LONG TERM. (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 314 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

Snow is likely toward the Indiana and Ohio state line beginning early Monday morning. Lake effect snow is likely toward northwest Indiana beginning early Monday morning. Further forecast adjustments can be expected in the coming days.

Overlaying the 500 mb heights and the MSLP from the Canadian, ECMWF, NAM, and GFS, each model is in strong agreement with the placement of these features. The ensemble clusters still vary some with the 500 mb pattern, but this appears to be improved over 24 hours ago. Differences remain with the phasing of the northern stream 500-mb jet. The GFS joins the northern stream and southern stream later on when compared to the Canadian. This can impact the intensity of the surface low below. With the northern stream wave arriving onshore this afternoon, further track and intensity adjustments are expected. Over the previous eight (four) runs, the GFS (ECMWF) is trending farther northeast with the surface low. This is in contrast to the Canadian model which has a subtle trend to the west and south. Senior forecasters have advised that the westward shift remains a viable forecast option in this pattern.

Putting this all together, snow will likely spread over our eastern Indiana and northwest Ohio counties early Monday morning. Gulf and Atlantic moisture wrapping around the surface low and back into our area will work to limit snow ratios (wet snow favored). What remains uncertain through the day Monday is where a deformation band of snow will take shape, if applicable. This band would provide an opportunity for heavy snowfall. At this distance, the heaviest snow will likely have tapered off to snow showers by Monday night. Northwest wind gusts of 25-35 mph will be a concern for this event as well. Wind gusts look to be strongest near the lake.

From an impacts point of view, road temperatures at this moment are reportedly near 50 degrees. Models suggest these pavement temperatures fall to freezing each night. As such there could be slippery travel conditions early Monday morning, perhaps improving through midday . unless the deformation band of snow is realized.

Regarding lake effect snow, lake induced CAPE rises to 400 j/kg soon after daybreak Monday with a northerly component to the wind profile through 10,000 feet. Cloud tops look to be near 8,000 feet with low- level lapse rates of 8C/km. This all equates to an excellent LES event. The greatest snow totals may favor NWS Chicago's Indiana counties, but our western bank of counties can certainly see LES as well. This band will pivot and become more NW to SE oriented from Monday night through Tuesday, bringing the chance for at least a brief period of LES to the central part of our CWA before ending Tuesday night.

The first attempt at snowfall maps are available at weather.gov/iwx/winter. Please note that these can and will likely change in the coming days. Today's maps are an attempt to best position us to adjust totals up or down as the forecast track changes.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued at 1210 AM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

Primarily VFR through the period after a brief MVFR continuance this evening. MVFR ceilings are expected to clear out in the next couple of hours as west-northwest flow pushes the clouds to the east. With surface high pressure moving in from the west, winds should diminish, especially at SBN, and will become more southwesterly overnight. Weak moisture advection also kicks in later, which could lead to possible BR/Fog development, with the HRRR still dropping visibilities to 4-6 miles. Given recent rain/saturated grounds/light winds/clearing skies kept a tempo in for now at KSBN to account for this. If it does develop, there could be potential for a brief period of IFR conditions-but kept things conservative for now, since none of the guidance is going that way. Confidence still not high enough to include at KFWA this issuance, as winds appear to be a little stronger. Anything that does develop should clear out by 15z, giving way to partly to mostly clear skies tomorrow.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . NONE. MI . NONE. OH . NONE. LM . NONE.

SYNOPSIS . MCD SHORT TERM . Brown LONG TERM . Brown AVIATION . MCD/Cobb

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook . Twitter . and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 85 mi70 min NW 8 G 9.9 41°F 1020.7 hPa
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 85 mi50 min NW 13 G 15 42°F 1020 hPa (+0.4)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Warsaw, Warsaw Municipal Airport, IN19 mi55 minW 47.00 miFair32°F30°F93%1019.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KASW

Wind History from ASW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W5W6W10W6SW3S3S3SW4S5SW4SW5SW5W7SW4SW5W7W7W11W8W6W6W6W4
1 day agoW12
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2 days agoS3S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE6SE5SE7SE4SE5S6S5S3S3S3NE6CalmCalmSW4W8W14

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.