Marine Weather and Tides
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
|Sunrise 7:43AM||Sunset 5:17PM||Saturday November 28, 2020 12:50 AM EST (05:50 UTC)||Moonrise 4:31PM||Moonset 5:55AM||Illumination 96%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Manchester, INHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KIWX 280520 AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1220 AM EST Sat Nov 28 2020
SYNOPSIS. Issued at 701 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020
Following a tranquil weekend, snow is likely toward the Ohio and Indiana state line beginning Monday. Additionally, lake effect snow is expected toward northwest Indiana beginning Monday. It will be notably colder through the coming week.
SHORT TERM. (This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 314 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020
Cloud cover will gradually diminish tonight in the wake of a departing cold front. This will result in crisp lows in the 20s. Fog cannot be ruled out given crossover temperatures as well as some saturated ground from recent rains. However, there might be just enough wind tonight to limit the fog. I have passed this on to the evening shift to monitor. High pressure will provide a tranquil weekend with sunshine; a reasonable opportunity to complete any exterior decorating before the incoming cold snap.
LONG TERM. (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 314 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020
Snow is likely toward the Indiana and Ohio state line beginning early Monday morning. Lake effect snow is likely toward northwest Indiana beginning early Monday morning. Further forecast adjustments can be expected in the coming days.
Overlaying the 500 mb heights and the MSLP from the Canadian, ECMWF, NAM, and GFS, each model is in strong agreement with the placement of these features. The ensemble clusters still vary some with the 500 mb pattern, but this appears to be improved over 24 hours ago. Differences remain with the phasing of the northern stream 500-mb jet. The GFS joins the northern stream and southern stream later on when compared to the Canadian. This can impact the intensity of the surface low below. With the northern stream wave arriving onshore this afternoon, further track and intensity adjustments are expected. Over the previous eight (four) runs, the GFS (ECMWF) is trending farther northeast with the surface low. This is in contrast to the Canadian model which has a subtle trend to the west and south. Senior forecasters have advised that the westward shift remains a viable forecast option in this pattern.
Putting this all together, snow will likely spread over our eastern Indiana and northwest Ohio counties early Monday morning. Gulf and Atlantic moisture wrapping around the surface low and back into our area will work to limit snow ratios (wet snow favored). What remains uncertain through the day Monday is where a deformation band of snow will take shape, if applicable. This band would provide an opportunity for heavy snowfall. At this distance, the heaviest snow will likely have tapered off to snow showers by Monday night. Northwest wind gusts of 25-35 mph will be a concern for this event as well. Wind gusts look to be strongest near the lake.
From an impacts point of view, road temperatures at this moment are reportedly near 50 degrees. Models suggest these pavement temperatures fall to freezing each night. As such there could be slippery travel conditions early Monday morning, perhaps improving through midday . unless the deformation band of snow is realized.
Regarding lake effect snow, lake induced CAPE rises to 400 j/kg soon after daybreak Monday with a northerly component to the wind profile through 10,000 feet. Cloud tops look to be near 8,000 feet with low- level lapse rates of 8C/km. This all equates to an excellent LES event. The greatest snow totals may favor NWS Chicago's Indiana counties, but our western bank of counties can certainly see LES as well. This band will pivot and become more NW to SE oriented from Monday night through Tuesday, bringing the chance for at least a brief period of LES to the central part of our CWA before ending Tuesday night.
The first attempt at snowfall maps are available at weather.gov/iwx/winter. Please note that these can and will likely change in the coming days. Today's maps are an attempt to best position us to adjust totals up or down as the forecast track changes.
AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued at 1210 AM EST Sat Nov 28 2020
Primarily VFR through the period after a brief MVFR continuance this evening. MVFR ceilings are expected to clear out in the next couple of hours as west-northwest flow pushes the clouds to the east. With surface high pressure moving in from the west, winds should diminish, especially at SBN, and will become more southwesterly overnight. Weak moisture advection also kicks in later, which could lead to possible BR/Fog development, with the HRRR still dropping visibilities to 4-6 miles. Given recent rain/saturated grounds/light winds/clearing skies kept a tempo in for now at KSBN to account for this. If it does develop, there could be potential for a brief period of IFR conditions-but kept things conservative for now, since none of the guidance is going that way. Confidence still not high enough to include at KFWA this issuance, as winds appear to be a little stronger. Anything that does develop should clear out by 15z, giving way to partly to mostly clear skies tomorrow.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . NONE. MI . NONE. OH . NONE. LM . NONE.
SYNOPSIS . MCD SHORT TERM . Brown LONG TERM . Brown AVIATION . MCD/Cobb
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Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN||85 mi||70 min||NW 8 G 9.9||41°F||1020.7 hPa|
|SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI||85 mi||50 min||NW 13 G 15||42°F||1020 hPa (+0.4)|
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Warsaw, Warsaw Municipal Airport, IN||19 mi||55 min||W 4||7.00 mi||Fair||32°F||30°F||93%||1019.6 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KASW
Wind History from ASW (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||W|
|2 days ago||S||S||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||S||S||S||S||S||NE||Calm||Calm||SW||W||W |
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GEOS Local Image of EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
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