Saturday, June12, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Manchester, IN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 9:15PM Saturday June 12, 2021 11:09 AM EDT (15:09 UTC) Moonrise 6:45AMMoonset 10:30PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ046 Expires:202106122215;;148962 Fzus53 Kiwx 121445 Nshiwx Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1045 Am Edt Sat Jun 12 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Lmz043-046-122215- New Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi-michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 1045 Am Edt Sat Jun 12 2021
Rest of today..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday night..Southwest wind 5 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet. The water temperature at st. Joseph is 50 degrees and at michigan city is 52 degrees.
LMZ046


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Manchester, IN
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location: 41, -85.78     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 121427 CCA AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion . Correction National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1027 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

Hot weather is expected again today with storms developing during the afternoon, especially toward evening. The storms will likely be accompanied by strong gusty winds and torrential downpours. Highs will be near 90 today. Cooler, drier and less humid conditions will prevail Sunday through Thursday.

UPDATE. Issued at 1025 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

No major changes to grids or thinking with respect to a very hot/humid summer day giving way to chances for widely scattered convection mid afternoon into this evening. An incoming weak sfc trough, enhanced by a Lake MI lake breeze, will likely be the focus for convection this afternoon. Lacking flow/forcing over the shallow front should limit coverage to widely scattered (20-50% coverage), roughly developing just west of I-69 mid afternoon, then spreading southeast from there with new development along outflow boundaries. Effective shear values in the 15-20 kt range should limit any organization to pulse or disorganized multicell, though DCAPE values into the 1000-1500 k/g suggest some wet microburst potential (isolated damaging wind threat) with SPC upgrading their day 1 outlook to marginal locally.

SHORT TERM. (Today and Tonight) Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

More storms are likely again today as a front moves south during the afternoon and as the atmosphere destabilizes with conditions becoming hot and humid. Elevated concern with a potential of downbursts as DCAPE values top 1000 J/Kg. A local downburst yesterday at Three River produced a wind gust of 66 mph. Believe the environment this afternoon will be capable of producing isolated wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. Precipitable water values should rise close to 2.0 inches. A number of the Convective Allowing Models favor storms developing after 4 pm EDT with rapid growth and development . Have coordinated with the Storm Prediction Center and at the time of the Day1 outlook issuance they were not introducing a Marginal Severe Risk at that time, but it looks like they were becoming more favorable to a marginal risk to be introduced at the 13Z (9 AM EDT) update. There should be explosive storm growth late this afternoon as CAPE values rise rapidly to 2500 J/Kg. Although the potential of widespread flooding is low, extremely heavy rain RATES exceeding 5 in/hr are possible and could cause local flooding, especially over any urbanized areas.

LONG TERM. (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

A cooler and dry period is ahead for much of the upcoming week with pleasant summer weather as a large high pressure area settles over the Midwest. Have kept Sunday through Thursday dry with highs close to 80 most days.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning) Issued at 645 AM EDT Sat Jun 12 2021

Scattered showers and storms are expected late this afternoon as a weak cold front approaches the area. Coverage will be on the lower side given weak forcing and confidence in impacts to the terminals remains low but will introduce a VCTS mention. Strong instability could support gusty winds and brief heavy rain where storms do develop. Otherwise VFR with light winds through the period.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . NONE. MI . NONE. OH . NONE. LM . NONE.

UPDATE . Steinwedel SYNOPSIS . Skipper SHORT TERM . Skipper LONG TERM . Skipper AVIATION . AGD

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook . Twitter . and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 78 mi40 min NNE 2.9 G 2.9 71°F 1011.1 hPa70°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 85 mi90 min NNW 2.9 G 2.9 71°F 1011.9 hPa
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 85 mi70 min NNW 1 G 1.9 75°F 1012.9 hPa (+1.0)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Warsaw, Warsaw Municipal Airport, IN19 mi75 minN 010.00 miFair79°F70°F74%1011.8 hPa
Rochester Fulton County Airport, IN22 mi75 minN 010.00 miFair81°F72°F74%1011.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KASW

Wind History from ASW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6NE6NE5N6CalmN5E3NE6NE4CalmCalmN3E5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmE3CalmCalm
1 day agoE4SE4CalmNW3E7E3N3E5NE4E5E3CalmE4E4E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmN4
2 days agoE4E5E5S3E4SE3CalmCalmSE6CalmNE13
G23
CalmN5CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmE3SE3SE4E7

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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