Monday, December16, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Manchester, IN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 5:16PM Monday December 16, 2019 6:25 AM EST (11:25 UTC) Moonrise 10:09PMMoonset 11:48AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 333 Am Est Mon Dec 16 2019
Today..Northeast wind 10 knots backing north in the afternoon. Cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..North wind 10 to 20 knots. Slight chance of snow. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots backing west 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 5 to 8 feet occasionally to 10 feet after midnight. A small craft advisory may be needed. The water temperature off michigan city is 38 degrees...and 39 degrees at st. Joseph.
LMZ046 Expires:201912161715;;862269 FZUS53 KIWX 160833 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Northern Indiana 333 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ046-161715-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Manchester, IN
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location: 41, -85.78     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 161115 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 615 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 358 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

Light snow and pockets of drizzle will diminish after daybreak. Mainly dry weather is expected the remainder of the late morning into mid afternoon. Snow will become likely again late this afternoon and especially tonight as a storm system begins to pull out of the central United States. This system may bring 2 to 5 inches of additional snow accumulation across northwest Ohio and northeast Indiana along and south of the Route 24 corridor. The evening commute tonight and morning commute on Tuesday may be hazardous due to snow covered roads across these locations. Much colder air will filter into the region Tuesday night with highs only reaching into the mid 20s Wednesday afternoon. Single digit wind chills above zero are also expected at times Tuesday night into Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM. (Today and Tonight) Issued at 358 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

The current winter weather advisory in effect for Grant, Blackford, and Jay counties will be cancelled with zone issuance as additional light precip continues to wane. A new winter weather advisory will be issued for Grant, Blackford, Jay, Wells, and Adams Counties in NE Indiana, along with Van Wert, Putnam, and Allen Counties in NW Ohio. This winter weather advisory will cover additional snow expected to affect these areas late this afternoon into tonight with a potential of 2 to 5 additional inches of snow. Mesoscale details will be important as discussed below delineating these amounts, along with resolving any potential for higher amounts in a favorable banding environment later tonight.

Advection phase of this multi-faceted system has produced 2 to 4 inches of snow across the advisory area overnight with isolated amounts between 4 and 5 inches across Grant County. This stronger isentropic/fgen forcing with this first round of precip is quickly diminishing and shifting east. Radar returns/sfc observations do indicate perhaps some patchy drizzle with loss of mid level saturation as this precip wanes over the next several hours. Snow covered roads will continue to pose a threat of hazardous travel this morning and not expecting any remaining patchy drizzle to significantly worsen these conditions. Thus, will cancel the winter weather advisory for Grant/Blackford/Jay Counties.

Attention then turns to late this afternoon into tonight with a couple of other forcing mechanisms that will bring more snow to portions of the area. A sizable lull in greater precip coverage still appears to be shaping up this morning into the mid afternoon hours. Things become more questionable after 21Z as emergence of central Rockies upper trough into the Central/Southern Plains results in backing of low/mid level winds from Lower MS Valley to the Lower Ohio Valley. A decent surge of low/mid level moisture transport/convergence will accompany this flow evolution as decent LLJ impinges on sharpening confluence zone from the Mid MS Valley to the southern Great Lakes. This pattern should support snow lifting back northward for areas along and south of Route 24 late this afternoon. Some question as to snow ratios given what should be a large 0 to -8 deg C layer in this warm advection pattern, along with some marginal moisture in a very highly based DGZ. Nonetheless, precip rates could overcome these limitation to provide a quick inch or two this evening across the far south/southeast.

It is possible a very brief lull could set up again late evening, but snow should pick up in intensity again late tonight as the upstream positively tilted upper trough axis approaches the Mid MS Valley. A strong mid level baroclinic zone will be in place downstream of this short wave, and the frontogenesis forcing in this setup should bring more snow to manly of the same locations (along and south of Route 24 across NE Indiana/NW Ohio). The frontogenesis forcing by late tonight should allow for better saturation in the highly elevated DGZ, but still some question as to how efficient banding potential will be given the highly elevated nature of the forcing. Model cross sections still depict a very impressive amount of elevated instability atop this forcing however, so concern is certainly still there for locally heavy snow in a narrow axis. Given these two additional rounds of snow are expected to affect the same general locations, have gone ahead and issued a winter weather advisory for the southeast from 21Z this afternoon to 14Z Tuesday morning for 2 to 5 inches of additional snow. While concern is there for potential locally higher amounts in favorable meso-banding environment, confidence in the extent of this threat and refining placement remains too low for anything more than an advisory. Confidence is also on the low side on the northwest extent of additional snow accumulation tonight, but the Fort Wayne vicinity does at least stand the potential of receiving an additional inch or two of snow depending on how above factors align.

The dampening upper wave will track across the region Tuesday morning with snow diminishing across the far southeast as frontal forcing finally shifts east.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 358 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

The nature of the long term period remains unchanged this forecast cycle as next arctic intrusion invades the Great Lakes region Tuesday night and Wednesday. Brief period of lake effect snow shower potential still appears plausible Tuesday night into early Wednesday, but residence time of this airmass locally still appears to be quite limited. Single digit wind chills above zero are expected at times Tuesday night through Thursday morning. Temps moderate a bit into the weekend as large scale mean ridging dominates across central CONUS. Some potential of another eastern Pacific wave rippling through this ridge, but moisture appears too limited at this forecast distance for any precip mention.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning) Issued at 607 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019

Lingering weak isentropic ascent and increasing shallow moisture has resulted in a combination of flurries/patchy drizzle early this morning. This forcing should diminish over the next few hours and precip should wane by mid morning. Areas of drizzle may give rise to some brief IFR cigs through 14Z, but expecting primarily MVFR cigs at KFWA through this period, while KSBN may experience largely higher end MVFR or VFR conditions for most of today. As storm system across central US pulls eastward, renewed snow chances are expected to spread back across northeast Indiana late this afternoon into tonight. KFWA appears to be on northwest fringe of higher snow chances tonight. Did include MVFR vsbys with snow later tonight at KFWA, but this is of low confidence at this time as northwest edge of accumulating snow will likely be sharply defined. Winds to back more north-northwest tonight as associated sfc low drifts southeast of the area.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EST Tuesday for INZ026-027-032>034.

MI . NONE. OH . Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM EST Tuesday for OHZ016-024-025.

LM . NONE.

SYNOPSIS . Marsili SHORT TERM . Marsili LONG TERM . Marsili AVIATION . Marsili

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook . Twitter . and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 78 mi36 min ESE 7 G 8 26°F 23°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 85 mi86 min Calm G 4.1 26°F 1021.7 hPa (+1.0)

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Warsaw, Warsaw Municipal Airport, IN19 mi31 minNE 35.00 miFog/Mist27°F24°F93%1020.3 hPa
Rochester Fulton County Airport, IN22 mi31 minNNE 35.00 miFog/Mist28°F26°F93%1020.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KASW

Wind History from ASW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW9W9W7W5W9W5W3W3SW4CalmS3SE3SE3SE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE4N3NE3NE4
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2 days agoS4S3S5S5S5S3S5S5S4S3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm----Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.