Thursday, December5, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Peconic, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 4:22PM Thursday December 5, 2019 1:28 PM EST (18:28 UTC) Moonrise 2:16PMMoonset 1:09AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 936 Am Est Thu Dec 5 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late this morning and afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of rain after midnight.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Rain likely in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
ANZ300 936 Am Est Thu Dec 5 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds in through tonight, then gives way to weak low pressure with a cold front Friday into Friday night. High pressure builds in through the weekend. A complex frontal system will impact the area early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Peconic, NY
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location: 41.01, -72.41     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 051738 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1238 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build in through tonight, then give way to weak low pressure with a cold frontal passage Friday into Friday night. High pressure will build in for the weekend. A frontal system will impact the area for the beginning of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. The forecast remains on track with minor adjustments made to temperatures, dewpoints and cloud cover for the next few hours to reflect current trends.

The day otherwise begins with a 500mb trough axis over the region. This shifts to our east later this morning and allows for deep- layered ridging in its place. Generally partly to mostly sunny this morning, then WNW winds transport some moisture from the Great Lakes, which could bring mostly cloudy conditions to some areas this afternoon. It should remain dry though, but expecting breezy conditions with slightly below normal temperatures.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Surface high pressure will be centered to our south, but its ridge axis extends north towards us and enters the Tri-State area towards daybreak. This maintains dry weather through the night into early Friday morning. A weak low center and attendant cold front then approach from the Great Lakes and pass through in the afternoon to evening hours of Friday. These will bring chances of precipitation mainly in the afternoon and evening with the higher chances generally over northern and eastern areas. Precip types will be determined by boundary layer temp/RH profiles, which leaves rain or snow as the 2 possibilities. Profiles support snow or a mix of rain and snow greater than approx 25 miles north of NYC, and rain elsewhere. Any potential accumulations would be very light, but as of now, PoPs are below likely.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. High pressure builds in for Saturday with a northwesterly flow. Backing profiles in forecast soundings noted for Saturday will mean decent cold advection. Highs on Saturday will be colder than Friday, with highs only in the lower to middle 30s. With light winds and mainly clear skies, Saturday night will be cold, especially in the outlying areas thanks to radiational cooling. Went a couple of degrees below guidance for Saturday night, and several degrees below for Pine Barrens of Long Island.

Thereafter, the forecast area will be on a warming trend as the center of high pressure moves over the area Saturday night and pushes offshore late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Veering winds in forecast soundings as a warm front lifts well north of the area will mean warm advection for Sunday and highs more seasonable for this time of year, in the 40s region-wide.

A complex frontal system will impact the area at the beginning of the new work week as an upper level shortwave over the Northern Rockies dives south into the mid-West Sunday into Monday, which phases with a southern stream system Monday night into Tuesday, inducing a surface low that tracks over the Great Lakes and then into southeastern Canada into Tuesday. This will allow a cold front to approach through Tuesday. That will mean a continued southerly flow and progressively warmer temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. By Tuesday, highs will be well above normal, in the 50s region-wide. There is a slight chance that some precipitation moves in early Sunday night for western sections of the forecast area. If it does, it may be cold enough for a wintry mix, including some freezing rain. However, it is too far out at this time for any certainty in precipitation types, and if it does occur, it is expected to be brief. From late Sunday night through Tuesday, it should be warm enough for plain rain for the entire forecast area.

There is the potential for heavy rain during this time frame as there looks to be a tropical connection south of the high that comes up northward on its west side. From Sunday night through Tuesday night, both the ECMWF and the GFS have over 2 inches of rainfall across portions of the area. PWATs of over an inch are also noted in the GFS. There is still a great deal of uncertainty with where the heaviest rain would actually set up and with the timing. The one good thing is that the rain would fall over a long duration.

The cold front pushes offshore Tuesday night, ushering in a colder air mass for Wednesday, with highs in the 30s to around 40.

AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. VFR as high pressure builds from the southwest. NW winds just to the left of 310 mag expected with speeds 15-20 kt and G25 to 30 kt for city terminals, G20-25 elsewhere. Winds gradually diminish tonight. Gusts should abate for the city terminals towards 5-6z and most of the outlying terminals towards 3z.

Ceilings are expected to lower below 10kft during Friday morning ahead of an approaching cold front, but VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the morning.

NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Friday Afternoon. Chance of MVFR conds mainly N and NE of the NYC metros, with a brief rain and/or snow shower possible. Otherwise mainly VFR. SW to S winds G20kt. Friday night . VFR with NW winds G20kt. Saturday. VFR. NW winds G20kt in the morning. Sunday. VFR. Sunday night and Monday. Rain showers likely with MVFR conds. Tuesday. Sub VFR likely in rain, with conditions improving at night.

MARINE. SCA conditions today for all waters with a gusty WNW wind. There could be occasional gusts to gale force this afternoon on the ocean, but think they won't be widespread enough to warrant a warning. Winds subside tonight with advisory level conditions continuing for all waters, but ending the latest over the ocean and easternmost non-ocean waters. A relatively tranquil period follows for Friday morning, but SCA conds could enter the ocean waters by day's end and become more likely at night. There could even be some gusts to 25 kt over the eastern Sound and Bays late at night.

Winds will remain below SCA criteria through Sunday night and much of Monday morning as high pressure moves over the area into Sunday and pushes offshore Sunday. An approaching frontal system will allow southerly flow to increase late Monday morning into the afternoon, with gusts 25-30 kt into Monday night, mainly for the ocean waters.

Seas will remain below 5 ft through Sunday night, but build to 5 ft on the ocean waters by Monday morning. Waves continue to build on the ocean to 5 to 9 ft by Monday night.

HYDROLOGY. No significant liquid equivalent is forecast through Sunday. A significant long duration rainfall event is possible from Sunday through Tuesday night.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

The KOKX WSR-88D radar will be out of service until approximately 12/7 due to the refurbishment of the transmitter. This work is part of the NEXRAD Service Life Extension Program.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ335-338- 345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ330-340-350- 353-355.

SYNOPSIS . JC/JP NEAR TERM . BC SHORT TERM . JC LONG TERM . JP AVIATION . JE MARINE . JC/JP HYDROLOGY . JC/JP EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 24 mi59 min 41°F 46°F1005.6 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 27 mi44 min WNW 18 G 24 41°F 1002.9 hPa28°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 30 mi59 min NW 5.1 G 12 43°F 49°F1005.1 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 32 mi59 min NNW 12 G 16 40°F 41°F1005.9 hPa
44069 42 mi59 min WNW 19 G 25 40°F 38°F26°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 42 mi65 min NW 8.9 G 15 41°F 45°F1006.3 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY17 mi36 minW 20 G 2710.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy43°F24°F47%1006.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W4W5W5W5W4W4--W4CalmW5--W4----Calm--W4NW6W10W14
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NW9NW8NW5W5W8----W5----CalmCalmNW3CalmW4W6W7W7W8
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Tide / Current Tables for Southold, Long Island Sound, New York
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Southold
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:09 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:00 AM EST     2.15 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:10 PM EST     0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:16 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:09 PM EST     1.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.611.41.82.12.22.11.91.61.20.80.50.611.31.61.821.91.71.41.10.7

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:10 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:38 AM EST     1.04 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:45 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:02 AM EST     -1.13 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:33 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:49 PM EST     1.00 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 01:16 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:59 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:24 PM EST     -1.30 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:59 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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110.90.5-0.1-0.6-1-1.1-1-0.8-0.40.30.910.90.6-0-0.6-1-1.3-1.2-1-0.60

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.