Friday, August7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Peconic, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 8:01PM Friday August 7, 2020 9:19 AM EDT (13:19 UTC) Moonrise 10:21PMMoonset 9:36AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 542 Am Edt Fri Aug 7 2020
Today..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming E late this morning and afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers early this morning, then chance of showers with isolated tstms late this morning and afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early this afternoon.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Sat..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Sat night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 542 Am Edt Fri Aug 7 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A series of frontal waves will track along a stationary front just south of the area through early Saturday. High pressure will then build into the area for Sunday and Monday. A cold front approaches the waters on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Peconic, NY
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location: 41.01, -72.41     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 071146 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 746 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. A series of frontal waves will track along a stationary front just south of the area through early Saturday. High pressure will then build into the area for Sunday and Monday. A cold front approaches Tuesday, slowly tracking across the region through Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. A batch of showers over New York City and portions of the Lower Hudson Valley will continue to push east across the area this morning. Made minor updates to PoPs to better capture this activity, and also to temperatures and dew points to better represent the latest trends.

A frontal wave tracking along a stationary boundary south of Long Island will bring the chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to the region today. Given the convective nature of the precipitation, there is still a good deal of uncertainty in terms of exactly how this precipitation plays out today, with a wide variety of solutions among both the global and mesoscale models. Current thinking is that an initial round of rain this morning will give way to a continued chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon as the upper trough approaches.

With the wave passing to our south, the best chance of rain this morning will be across portions of northeast New Jersey, New York City, and Long Island, with lower chances farther north. Whatever precipitation does develop will do so in an environment with precipitable water values around 2 inches and tall skinny CAPE, indicative of heavy rain. While much of New York City and Long Island received an inch of rain or less with the tropical system earlier this week, the potential still exists for heavy downpours to result in minor flooding.

Temperatures will remain several degrees below normal under plenty of cloud cover, with highs only rising into the mid to upper 70s.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at Atlantic Ocean beaches today.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/. Unsettled weather will continue tonight as another wave passes along the front south of the region. This will result in a continuing chance of showers, and maybe an isolated thunderstorm, through the overnight hours before most precipitation should exit the area to the east Saturday morning. Can't completely rule out an additional shower or storm during the day on Saturday as the upper trough may be slow to exit, but the majority of the region should be mostly dry through the afternoon.

After overnight lows in the mid 60s to around 70 tonight, temperatures on Saturday will rebound into the low to mid 80s with additional sunshine.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. By Saturday night, surface high pressure and upper ridging builds back into the region behind the departing shortwave, resulting in dry conditions into the day on Monday. A weak and low amplitude shortwave passes mainly to the north Sunday, however, there is little moisture or forcing in the area and the surface reflection comes through dry. A large trough and closed low will be moving into the northern tier of the plains, and this low will track slowly east into the mid week period. This will bring a cold front very slowly across the area Tuesday into Thursday as the ridge only gradually weakens. Heat and humidity will be building early to mid week as the ridge builds. Temperatures will be well above normal through the period, around 5 to 10 degrees. Cloud cover and the chance for precipitation, scattered thunderstorms, will affect both heat and humidity, and at this time there is the potential for heat indices to be in the lower to mid 90s Monday through Wednesday across the northeastern New Jersey, the lower Hudson Valley, and New York City.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. A series of frontal waves will travel along a stalled front south of Long Island today and tonight.

Mainly VFR conditions to start. MVFR conditions are expected to develop across most terminals around or after 15-16z. Rain showers can be expected through 16z. There should be a break in the precipitation this afternoon, then another round of showers and possibly a thunderstorm between 22-23z. Best chance of thunder will be at KEWR and KTEB, so will cover this with a PROB30 for now. Low confidence forecast with respect to exact timing of lower cigs and precip at any given terminal.

Light and variable winds increase a little today to around 6-8kt from the east.

AMD NOT SKED included for the KBDR TAF due to the ASOS outage.

. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support .

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Timing of MVFR cigs may be off by an hour or two. Low chance of a thunderstorm this evening.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is YELLOW . which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Timing of MVFR cigs may be off by an hour or two. Low chance of a thunderstorm this evening.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is YELLOW . which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of MVFR cigs may be off by an hour or two.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW . which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Timing of MVFR cigs may be off by an hour or two.

KHPN TAF Comments: Timing of MVFR cigs may be off by an hour or two. low chance of a thunderstorm this evening.

KISP TAF Comments: Timing of MVFR cigs may be off by an hour or two.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Saturday. Possible rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. MVFR possible. Saturday Night-Monday. Mainly VFR. Tuesday. Chance of MVFR with a chance of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.

MARINE. Ocean seas will generally range from 2-3 ft through Tuesday night with wind gusts generally remaining 20 kt or less.

HYDROLOGY. Heavy downpours are possible in any showers and thunderstorms today, especially this morning, which could result in minor flooding of low lying locations. There is a low chance of localized flash flooding. No hydrologic impacts are expected for the remainder of the forecast period.

EQUIPMENT. KBDR ASOS is not reporting at this time due to a power outage.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . FEB/MET NEAR TERM . FEB SHORT TERM . FEB LONG TERM . FEB/MET AVIATION . BC MARINE . FEB/MET HYDROLOGY . FEB/MET EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 24 mi50 min 72°F 71°F1021 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 29 mi30 min ENE 7.8 G 9.7 70°F 70°F2 ft1020.5 hPa67°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 30 mi50 min N 2.9 G 6 70°F 71°F1021.1 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 32 mi50 min ENE 1.9 G 6 70°F 76°F1021 hPa
44069 42 mi65 min NNE 9.7 G 9.7 72°F 66°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 42 mi50 min NE 5.1 G 6 69°F 74°F1021 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY17 mi27 minNNE 410.00 miOvercast73°F64°F74%1021.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr6E6E7SE4SE5S455S5SW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E4CalmE3NE3CalmNE4
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Tide / Current Tables for Southold, Long Island Sound, New York
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Southold
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:03 AM EDT     2.54 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:29 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:35 PM EDT     2.46 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:52 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.12.42.52.421.61.10.70.30.30.71.31.82.22.42.42.21.81.410.60.50.71.2

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:21 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:34 AM EDT     -1.63 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:10 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:38 AM EDT     1.25 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 12:44 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:51 PM EDT     -1.44 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:22 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:53 PM EDT     1.29 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 10:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.3-0.5-1.2-1.6-1.6-1.2-0.8-0.10.71.21.21.10.6-0.2-0.9-1.3-1.4-1.2-0.7-0.20.51.11.31.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.