Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Peconic, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 7:48PM Saturday August 17, 2019 2:19 PM EDT (18:19 UTC) Moonrise 9:11PMMoonset 7:47AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 1212 Pm Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
This afternoon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms in the evening. Chance of showers.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1212 Pm Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A frontal boundary remains stalled to the south of the region with high pressure to the northeast. A trough of low pressure will develop to the west on Sunday followed by a weak cold front Monday night. This boundary dissipates over the area on Tuesday, although another cold front approaches Wednesday and moves through Wednesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Peconic, NY
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location: 41.01, -72.41     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 171812
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
212 pm edt Sat aug 17 2019

Synopsis
A frontal boundary remains stalled to the south of the region with
high pressure to the northeast. A trough of low pressure will
develop to the west on Sunday followed by a weak cold front Monday
night. This boundary dissipates over the area on Tuesday, although
another cold front approaches Wednesday and moves through Wednesday
night. High pressure then builds in for the remainder of the
week.

Near term through tonight
Highest coverage of showers remains over eastern locations. A
shower or thunderstorm could develop at anytime this afternoon
across the region. Much of the area now observing sunshine. Any
lingering low clouds across the region are expected to lift and
dissipate as the afternoon progresses given time of year.

A slight increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms is
expected, especially NW locations, late this afternoon and
evening closer to upper shortwave, increased lift. As
instability wanes, thunder chances will lower overnight.

Temperatures, except eastern LI and SE ct under ovc skies, have
risen to the upper 70s lower 80s.

With plenty of clouds tonight and continued light onshore flow,
temps will not vary much, upper 60s to lower mid 70s.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
atlantic ocean beaches this afternoon and into this evening.

Short term Sunday through Sunday night
A stationary front will remain just to the south of the region for
the second half of the weekend with high pressure building to the
south and west. This will result in a hot and humid air mass
building into the start of next week, as southwest flow returns. On
Sunday, temperatures across northeast nj will touch 90 with highs
across nyc metro in the upper 80s, with cooler temps along the
coast. MAX heat index values will be in the a few degrees higher
than the air temperature.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop once again Sunday
afternoon as a trough sets up west of nyc. Overnight low
temperatures will be in the in the low to mid 70s, which is
about 5 to 7 degrees above normal.

There is a low risk for the development of rip currents at atlantic
ocean beaches Sunday.

Long term Monday through Friday
Hot, humid and somewhat unsettled weather will continue for the
first half of next week. Nwp is in good agreement with the overall
upper pattern across north america during the long term period, with
bermuda high pressure remaining in place resulting in gradually
rising heights rising across the northeast into early next week.

Currently, the hottest day appears to be Monday with widespread
upper 80s to lower 90s, mid 90s in urban NE nj. Dewpoints in the 70s
will yield heat index values in the mid to upper 90s, possibly
reaching 100 in NE nj. With heat index values forecast to remain
below 95 both Sunday and Tuesday, it looks that we will remain below
heat advisory criteria, but it will be something to watch with
subsequent updates.

A weak cold front approaching on Mon could then trigger isolated
showers storms Mon aftn eve. This boundary moves into the area mon
night so have kept the low chc during this time although tstms may
be nil.

It dissipates over the area on Tue although a shortwave lifting up
the east coast and a digging trough to the west is expected to
trigger additional showers and tstms on wed. The former piece of
energy may pass far enough east to keep that activity offshore, but
pre-frontal convection is possible during the aftn eve. This
stronger front moves through Wed night bringing and end to the
showers tstms and a more comfortable airmass as high pres builds
from the great lakes through fri. Temps are expected to be near to
slightly below normal levels Thu and fri.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Thursday
High pressure east of the new england coast will remain in
control through the weekend.

MostlyVFR, lowering to MVFR this evening with some ifr east of
the city terminals. Showers forming along sea breeze boundary
may reach kisp this afternoon with a lower chance at kjfk and
klga. TSTM could get close to kswf late day early evening.

Winds mostly SE 5-10 kt away from any shower outflow.

Outlook for 18z Sunday through Thursday
Sunday Chance of mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. Best chance north and west of the nyc terminals.

MVFR ifr ceilings improving through the morning.

Monday MainlyVFR. Slight chance shower or thunderstorm.

Tuesday-Thursday MainlyVFR. Chance showers or
thunderstorms.

Marine
A generally weak pressure gradient will keep seas below 5 ft into
the early week. Winds and ocean seas then begin to increase by
Wednesday in advance of a cold front, with seas reaching SCA levels
by Wednesday night.

Hydrology
No hydrologic impacts are expected at this time through the forecast
period.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... CB 24
near term... Pw
short term... Cb
long term... CB 24
aviation... Jc
marine... CB 24 pw
hydrology... CB 24
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 24 mi50 min 72°F 68°F1017.1 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 27 mi35 min E 12 G 14 69°F 1002 hPa68°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 29 mi30 min ESE 7.8 G 9.7 1016.9 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 30 mi50 min S 1.9 G 4.1 72°F 69°F1017.4 hPa
44069 42 mi95 min E 9.7 G 12 75°F 79°F74°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 42 mi56 min ESE 7 G 9.9 78°F 75°F1016.4 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY17 mi27 minNE 59.00 miOvercast74°F73°F97%1017.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFOK

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7--SE5--E6E3--E4E3------NE3Calm--E3NE5NE4--E6E5E6E5NE5
1 day agoE8
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E95--E4E4E5CalmN4NE3------CalmCalm------SE8SE6SE7SE9
2 days agoNE4E6E5SE5E3E3CalmE3E4NE3NE3NE3E4NE5NE4NE4N4N7NE9NE10N6NE5SE10E8

Tide / Current Tables for Southold, Long Island Sound, New York
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Southold
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Sat -- 12:43 AM EDT     2.65 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:09 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:10 PM EDT     2.45 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:24 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.62.62.421.510.50.30.40.91.41.92.32.42.321.61.20.80.50.50.91.52

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
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Sat -- 02:18 AM EDT     -1.66 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:51 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:11 AM EDT     1.30 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:19 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:33 PM EDT     -1.52 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:56 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:25 PM EDT     1.45 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:42 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-1.3-1.6-1.6-1.2-0.70.111.31.20.90.3-0.5-1.1-1.5-1.5-1.1-0.60.10.91.41.41.10.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.