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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1225 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2023
.gale warning in effect until 5 pm est this afternoon...
Today..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain late this morning, then chance of showers early this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.

ANZ300 1225 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. A cold front pushes east of the region today as deepening low pressure tracks into canada. High pressure then builds from the southwest into Tuesday. A cold front approaches Tuesday night and passes through early Wednesday. Another strong high will then build from the west for later in the week, then shift off the new england coast Saturday night.

FXUS61 KOKX 111746 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1246 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
A cold front pushes east of the region today as deepening low pressure tracks into Canada. High pressure builds in from the southwest into Tuesday. A cold front approaches Tuesday night and passes through early Wednesday. Another strong high will then build from the west for later in the week, then shift off the New England coast Saturday night.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
At 1730Z, conditions have quickly dried out as a deepening 992 mb low continues to pull into SE Canada and exit the local region. Only a couple remaining obs at this point of lingering sprinkles, and this will end everywhere as we move into early afternoon. While the threat for flooding has mostly ended, the only exception is across portions of SE CT where a flood warning remains in effect for river flooding along the Yantic.

Skies clear from SW to NE through the afternoon. The pressure gradient remains rather tight today as the departing low deepens and high pressure begins to build in. This allows for a blustery rest of the day with NW flow occasionally gusting 30 to 35 mph as the upper trough axis pivots through. Late in the day and into the evening the pressure gradient begins to decrease somewhat and winds lighten. It will be a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler than Sunday with 40s across the area into the afternoon.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/
High pressure builds from the southwest tonight. Winds will gradually decrease with gusts still around 20 to 25 mph at times during the evening. After midnight, expect clear skies any gusts ending. This will allow temperatures to fall to seasonably cold levels. Temperatures should get below freezing in most places with lows in the middle and upper 20s in the more rural area, to mainly lower 30s across the city and urban locations.
s

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
No changes to the long term. Followed the NBM closely.

Quasi-zonal flow aloft in the wake of one departing trough on Tue will give way to another northern stream trough on Wednesday, which should drive a cold front through either late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Confluent mid level flow after this trough passage, followed by ridging aloft Fri, will then maintain strong sfc high pressure over the area, with perhaps a weak intervening cold frontal passage Friday night. Guidance has been trending towards hanging on to high pressure over the area through the weekend. As high pressure shifts east is where model spread starts to really increase. There is potential for another low pressure system to impact the area late Sunday, but large differences remain in timing, strength and location.

Forecast follows the NBM for the most part given close enough NWP model guidance agreement during this time frame, with only minor adjustments. Fair wx should prevail through the period, with only slight chance to chance PoP for next Sunday. Near normal temps Tue- Wed, and a little below normal Wed night-Thu after the cold frontal passage, should moderate to a few degrees above normal Fri-Sat via ridging sfc and aloft.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure builds in during the TAF period.

VFR. WNW winds gusting mostly 25-30kt, diminishing towards sunset. Gusts 20-25kt early this evening before dropping off by around 02-04z for most terminals. Winds shift W late tonight, then SW around 10kt Tuesday afternoon. Occasional gusts to 20kt possible in the afternoon.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional peak gusts of 31-35kt possible this afternoon.

Winds are expected to average around 310 magnetic through the entire day, however, moderate confidence that winds will tend to favor south/left of 310 magnetic. KEWR is most likely prevail south of 310 magnetic.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday: VFR. SW gusts 15-20kt possible in the afternoon.

Wednesday: NW gusts 20-25kt in the afternoon.

Thursday-Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
The strongest winds have moved east of the region, so have dropped the storm warnings and converted them to gales. Expect gales on all waters through much of the day, with small craft conditions likely into at least the first part of tonight.

Sub small craft conditions may prevail for a good portion of Tuesday across the waters in all likelihood, with small craft conditions returning through the remainder of the period. Meanwhile W flow gusting up to 25 kt on all waters Tue night, should shift NW by Wed morning after a cold frontal passage. Gusts could peak at 30 kt on the ocean Wed night. Lingering 25 kt gusts are possible, especially on the eastern ocean and the open Sound waters into daytime Thursday.

HYDROLOGY
3 to 4", locally 5" have fallen across central LI and S Central CT.
Urban and poor drainage flooding impacts have generally been minor overnight. With precipitation largely tapered as of 1430Z, the threat for flooding is waning. The exceptions are along a couple rivers in SE CT, where the Yantic is in moderate, and the Quinnipiac at Wallingford is expected to rise into minor later today.

Across NYC, NE NJ, and Lower Hud, between 1 and 2" of rain have fallen, with less than 1/2" of additional rain expected. The threat for flooding has come to an end. Several flashy small stream rivers continue to slowly rise, but are expected to stay below minor flood thresholds.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Localized minor coastal flooding possible with this morning high tide cycle for the south shore bays of Queens and Nassau, coastal CT and the twin Forks of LI. Winds shift to the W-NW this morning will limit magnitude of surge and additive wave impacts during the times of high tide Mon AM.

There is typically erratic surge behavior (double peak) with strong S/SE flow events followed by a strong windshift. For that reason, forecast has been heavily leaned to Stevens NYHOPS 95th percentile numbers, and adjusted upward for wave runup on south facing coastlines. This should capture the potential for localized minor flooding along the south shore bays of Queens and Nassau, coastal CT and the twin Forks of LI this morning.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331-332-335- 338-340-345-350-353-355.

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Cos Cob Harbor
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Mon -- 03:27 AM EST     0.56 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:49 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:32 AM EST     7.91 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:08 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:07 PM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:03 PM EST     6.80 feet High Tide
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Cos Cob Harbor, Connecticut, Tide feet

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