Monday, September28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sag Harbor, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 6:38PM Monday September 28, 2020 2:11 AM EDT (06:11 UTC) Moonrise 5:38PMMoonset 3:14AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 124 Am Edt Mon Sep 28 2020
Overnight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Scattered showers with patchy drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers with patchy drizzle in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Showers.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers in the morning.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..NE winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
ANZ300 124 Am Edt Mon Sep 28 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pres remains E of the waters today. A cold front approaches on Tue, and passes on Wed. Low pres impacts the waters Wed night and Thu. High pres builds towards the region on Fri.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sag Harbor, NY
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location: 41.02, -72.28     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 280530 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 130 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure remains over the Atlantic today. A slow moving frontal system approaches from the Ohio Valley tonight into Tuesday, moving across the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. Waves of low pressure will move along the frontal boundary, bringing an extended period of unsettled conditions. A series of reinforcing cold fronts will then follow at the end of the week with high pressure returning next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. Included some dz for the overnight. Otherwise the fcst is on track. A weak surface low passing offshore as well as some positive vorticity advection aloft are giving some vertical forcing factors but the showers are generally very small and therefore very brief in duration. Winds generally are from the E-SE at around 5 to 10 mph, helping to advect in low level moisture as dewpoints are mostly in the upper 60s to near 70. With minimal temperature and dewpoints spreads along the coast, fog might become dense at times along the coast but the winds staying up slightly might help keep enough turbulence to prevent this from occurring and this is why the fog coverage was made patchy.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. The shortwave shifts through the forecast area during the day Monday. Not as significant, but still present, is lift from a weak jet streak aloft. Cannot rule out showers at any given point of the day, but overall probably less of a chance towards late in the day as the sources of lift exit. Moisture is still shallow, so any shower activity will probably be light in intensity.

The high temperature forecast is a little challenging due to uncertainty surrounding how much the cloud cover dissipates during the afternoon. Thinking it will be similar to Sunday afternoon where it's partly to mostly cloudy with the higher cloud cover east of the city. Temps aloft will not have changed all that much as well. NBM was used for high temps, which best matches this thinking.

Lift remains on the weak side through Monday night, but will increase from the west late at night as PVA increases ahead of an approaching shortwave. Low chances of showers, and once again, patchy fog development.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean beaches on Monday due to a building southerly swell and strengthening onshore winds.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. An unsettled Tuesday through the end of the week continues to become more likely as deterministic models and ensembles slowly come into better agreement. Differences arise with timing of specific features, but overall much needed rainfall is becoming likely Tuesday through early Thursday morning.

A longwave trough over the eastern CONUS with two separate shortwaves, one within the northern stream and one in the southern stream, will help draw up tropical moisture from the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. The longwave trough will only slowly pivot towards the east coast Tuesday into Wednesday, but will send a cold front towards the region. Several waves of low pressure will ride along the front, with the first coming late Tuesday through Wednesday morning. This wave will largely be associated with the northern stream trough and will help send the cold front into the region. The cold front then is likely to stall over or just to our east late Wednesday into Wednesday night. At the same time, the southern stream shortwave energy will quickly lift northward. This depicted by the GFS and ECMWF, which develop a deepening wave of low pressure that lifts along the Middle Atlantic and northeast coast into Thursday morning. However, there are some deterministic models (CMC, ICON) and members of the GEFS that are much quicker/drier. A blend of the GFS and ECMWF were used in this forecast as they have been the most consistent the last several runs.

The most significant rain is expected late Tuesday into Wednesday morning and then again Wednesday night. Showers on Tuesday are likely to be associated with warm advection and increasing low level flow. More organized rain showers will then become widespread as large scale lift maximizes over a tropical air mass. Showers should diminish in coverage, and possibly end for a time later Wednesday afternoon before becoming widespread again with the second wave of low pressure Wednesday night. Conditions should dry out Thursday morning as the energy and low lift quickly to the northeast.

Rainfall amounts are a bit challenging as the placement of heaviest rain is still in question. Three quarters to an inch and a half is forecast Tuesday through Wednesday morning. Another inch to inch and a half is possible Wednesday night with a total on average around 2 inches. Locally higher amounts are possible in heavier rain. Due to the long duration of the event as well as very dry antecedent conditions and high flash flood guidance values, no significant flooding is anticipated. Minor urban and poor drainage flooding would be the main concern. There is some CAPE on soundings Tuesday afternoon/evening away from the coast, so have mentioned thunder here. Otherwise, have kept thunder out of the forecast.

Dry conditions briefly return late Thursday morning through Friday morning. A series of secondary cold fronts will move through the region. The longwave trough will also remain in place across the eastern states with its axis to our west. There are hints at another vort max within the trough moving towards the region on Friday. This energy may act upon the baroclinic zone just offshore to develop another low pressure. Differences are quite high among the guidance in its location and whether it develops offshore or closer to the region. Have capped PoPs off at chance for the eastern half for now.

High pressure then builds into the weekend.

Above normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will trend to near seasonable levels Thursday and Friday. Below normal temperatures are then expected next weekend.

There is a high risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean beaches on Tuesday due to a southerly swell and strengthening onshore winds.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. One weak low passes offshore tonight with otherwise a slowly weakening high pressure area on the larger scale that will be moving gradually farther out to sea through the TAF period. A cold front will begin to approach the region late in the TAF period for Monday night.

Another night of low stratus is expected with patchy fog developing overnight. Fog could become dense at times along the coast. Brief rain shower activity will be possible during the TAF period. IFR to LIFR conditions are expected into Monday morning, especially east of NYC terminals with possible VLIFR at times. A gradual improvement is forecast Monday afternoon as any fog dissipates and ceilings lift to MVFR and eventually VFR.

Winds overall will be generally E-SE at or less than 10 kts tonight through Monday morning. Winds will then become more SE-S and increase to 11-14 kts Monday afternoon into early Monday evening. Wind gusts of 18-20 kts are possible Monday afternoon into early Monday evening.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

Amendments will be likely tonight into Monday. Start and end time of categorical changes could vary by a few hours. Category may fluctuate between MVFR and IFR as well as LIFR.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. Monday night. Chance of IFR/MVFR conditions. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Tuesday. Chance of IFR/MVFR conditions. Patchy fog morning into early afternoon. A chance of showers, becoming likely mid to late afternoon and at night. A slight chance of thunderstorms mid afternoon into the evening. S-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt. Wednesday. IFR/MVFR with showers. Heavy rain possible at times. SW wind gusts 15-20kt day into early evening. Thursday. Chance of MVFR and chance of showers in the morning. VFR thereafter. SW wind gusts around 20kt day into early evening. Friday. Mainly VFR. Afternoon showers possible for KISP and KGON.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. Swells have increased on the ocean a little more than guidance, so will go with a SCA for elevated seas east of Fire Island Inlet tonight through Monday. It is possible however that waves are averaging below 5 ft across most of the zones at times. More confidence in waves staying below 5 ft Monday night. Winds now through Monday night will be on the lighter side, generally around 10 kt and onshore.

Seas build on the ocean Tuesday ahead of a slow moving cold front. Seas should then will be around or just above 5 ft Tuesday night and continue to build through Wednesday. Winds may also gust to around 25 kt Tuesday night into Wednesday as the cold front nears the waters. SCA conditions may also occur late Wednesday night into Thursday on all waters as low pressure and the cold front move across the waters. Ocean seas may remain elevated through Friday, but winds should remain below 20 kt Thursday night into Friday.

HYDROLOGY. A slow moving frontal boundary and several waves of low pressure will bring a significant rainfall Tuesday into early Wednesday and then again Wednesday night into early Thursday. Total rainfall amounts average around 2 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Due to dry antecedent conditions, the long duration of the event, and high flash flood guidance, no significant flooding is anticipated. Minor urban and poor drainage flooding is the main threat.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350- 353.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 17 mi54 min 68°F 66°F1014.7 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 23 mi47 min S 11 G 13 69°F 1016.1 hPa68°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 26 mi42 min S 12 G 16 67°F 67°F1014.7 hPa67°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 26 mi54 min S 8.9 G 11 69°F 68°F1014.3 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 38 mi54 min S 9.9 G 13 70°F 68°F1014.3 hPa
44069 48 mi42 min SSE 16 G 18 68°F 68°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 49 mi54 min SE 7 G 9.9 69°F 69°F1012.5 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY20 mi78 minVar 5 mi70°F69°F97%1014.9 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY22 mi79 minS 84.00 miFog/Mist68°F68°F100%1014.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTP

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm333S5Calm3Calm3433435454
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3655Calm3Calm3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW33CalmS4CalmCalm3SW3W55CalmCalm534S4SW3SW43CalmS4CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Point, Long Island Sound, New York
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Cedar Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:14 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:45 AM EDT     2.60 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:29 PM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:35 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:01 PM EDT     2.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.40.70.40.50.81.31.82.22.52.62.42.11.60.90.50.50.81.31.82.32.72.82.72.4

Tide / Current Tables for Shinnecock Canal, Railroad Bridge, New York Current
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Shinnecock Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:53 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:57 AM EDT     1.23 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:26 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:33 AM EDT     -1.45 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:04 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:15 PM EDT     1.44 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:03 PM EDT     -1.56 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.2-0.70.10.81.11.210.3-0.4-1-1.4-1.4-1.2-0.8-0.10.81.31.41.30.7-0.1-0.8-1.3-1.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.