Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sag Harbor, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Despite a dry cold frontal passage tonight, high pressure is expected to dominate the area through the week and possibly into the weekend.

2) Localized minor coastal flooding is possible across southern Nassau and southern Fairfield counties during the morning high tides Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
A strong upper low tracking across central and eastern Canada will suppress the upper ridge to the north of our area. Upper ridging will then reestablish itself over the eastern portion of the country, with the region lying between the ridge to the south and mainly zonal flow to our north. Other than a dry cold front passage tonight, strong high pressure will dominate the weather pattern through the week.

Wind overnight from dry frontal passage will prevent optimal radiational cooling conditions overnight. Lows look to be in the low 40s to upper 40s with low 50s in and around the NYC metro.

As a result of the front, light northerly flow will reinforce slightly below seasonal temps Tuesday with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Winds drop off Tuesday night under clear skies leading to optimal radiational cooling conditions. The NYC metro will drop into the mid/low 40s. Elsewhere, will see 30s. Areas that may get below freezing will be in the northern interior and the LI Pine Barrens.
Frost may also become widespread in the interior and the LI Pine Barrens. Given the growing season doesn't end in Suffolk county, Bergen county, or coastal CT zones until November 1st, possible frost development in these locations could prompt a Frost Advisory, should frost end up becoming more widespread.

A gradual warming trend is then forecast through the rest of the week with highs Thursday and especially Friday above normal in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Some of the warmer spots on Friday could reach the mid to upper 70s in NE NJ.

KEY MESSAGE 2
Localized minor coastal flooding remains possible for southern Nassau and southern Fairfield counties during the morning high tides on Tuesday and Wednesday. The latest guidance lends little confidence to meeting these thresholds, so have not issued a statement or advisory attm. Despite high pressure over the area during this timeframe, astronomically high tides (King Tide) may mean localized minor coastal flooding for these locations.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Dry cold frontal passage this evening with high pressure building from the north and west thereafter.

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Wind speeds will be around 7-10 kts through the TAF period.
Wind direction varies from mostly southwest to west this afternoon to more northwest this evening and then more north to northeast late tonight into Tuesday.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Winds could become more southerly than forecast at times until early this evening.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Tuesday afternoon-Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through the week with high pressure in control and a relatively weak pressure gradient.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.