Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dobbs Ferry, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
Forecast remains generally on track with only minor adjustments to account for the most recent observations. There is a chance that some smoke from southern NJ wildfires approaches the NYC metro and Long Island into the overnight but not confident enough in the progression of the smoke and intensity to include in the grids at this time.

High pressure at the surface will be mainly centered over our region, leading to very light flow under the weak pressure gradient. Winds will become south synoptically tonight (instead of just with the current sea breeze) as the center of the high will be just to our east.

Heights will continue to climb aloft from mid and upper level ridging. With ample subsidence, expecting clear skies to prevail tonight.

Lows tonight will be near or just above climatological averages in the mid-40s to low-50s (up to mid-50s in the NYC metro).

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Surface high pressure will gradually push offshore Thursday into Thursday night. Heights aloft will also continue to rise through this period.

High pressure remains mainly in control during the day and early night, leading to skies remaining clear and dry conditions prevailing, but cloud cover will begin to gradually increase late Thursday night as a frontal system approaches the region.

Temperatures will be above average on Thursday as the jet stream remains north of the area and heights continue to rise aloft. Due to light synoptic flow and warmer temperatures on land with much cooler ocean and LI sound waters, expecting another sea breeze on Thursday. Coastal areas will remain cooler than interior areas because of this. Highs towards the coast will be in the 60s while the interior will reach the mid-70s to near 80.

Overnight Thursday, lows will be warmer under a more light southwesterly flow in the mid/low-50s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Surface high pressure will move offshore Friday with an increasing SW flow over the area on the backside of the retreating high. This SW flow will result in above normal temperatures with highs on Friday in the upper 70s to near 80 for much of the interior areas.
Coastal areas will remain in the upper 60s to low 70s. Partly cloudy skies in the morning will gradually become more cloud covered toward evening as a frontal system approaches from the west. There is a chance that low stratus develops for the coast toward Friday evening with an onshore flow increasing low level moisture. Drizzle is possible as well for these areas.

By Friday night, the center of the low pressure develops over the Great Lakes region and begins to push northeast in response to a digging mid-level trough. Given the ample amounts of low level moisture with dew points climbing into the 50s under a S/SW flow, rain showers become increasingly likely overnight and into Saturday morning with the approach of the cold front from the west. Models are in general agreement as to the timing and evolution of the cold frontal passage but the precipitation associated with it is a bit uncertain. Higher resolution models have the shower activity being more scattered with isolated thunderstorms developing late Friday night and into Saturday with global models having a more widespread stratiform rain with possible embedded thunderstorms.

The cold front will slowly make its way through the area on Saturday before finally moving through by evening. Rain showers will be likely for much of the area Saturday with possible isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours ahead of the frontal passage. Given the shower activity and cloud cover, high temperatures Saturday will be cooler than Friday with highs in the middle 60s to low 70s. Total rainfall accumulations at this time are expected to be 0.5 to 0.75 inches, with locally higher amounts possible in any thunderstorms.

The cold front pushes through by Saturday evening with high pressure building in the area from Sunday and into Monday. This will result in dry but cooler conditions for Sunday with highs in the 60s. As mid-level heights rise with a developing mid-level ridge on the back side of the surface high pressure, temperatures should increase as well through the middle of the week. Highs on Monday will be in the upper 60s to middle 70s with Tuesday climbing to near 80 for the western portions of the CWA away from the coast. Another frontal system may approach the area from the west by Wednesday.

AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure remains over the area tonight, and drifts offshore Thursday.

VFR.

A light SW flow becomes light and variable at all the terminals late this evening. Then a light SE flow develops mid to late Thursday morning, with the winds becoming southerly during the afternoon, with sea breeze enhancement.

The NYC/LI terminals may be impacted by smoke from the nearby wildfires in NJ. However, with no sites reporting any impacts from the smoke, and with low confidences in impacts into the overnight, will remove from the TAFs with the 03Z update.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

Low confidence in any smoke/hz into the overnight from wild fires in NJ.


OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Thursday night-Friday: VFR. Late Friday S winds G15-20 kt.

Friday Night-Saturday: MVFR or lower in showers. An isolated thunderstorm possible Saturday. S/SW gusts 15-20 kt, becoming W-NW in the afternoon/evening, gusting 20-25 kt.

Sunday: VFR. N gusts 15-20 kt possible.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
Sub advisory conditions are expected Wed night through Thu night under high pressure.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected Friday with an increasing S flow resulting in SCA on the ocean by early Saturday morning. Gusts to 25 kt will be possible with wave heights 5-7 feet for the ocean on Saturday. The Great South Bay, Eastern LIS, and the eastern bays may also have SCA conditions with 25kt gusts. Conditions for the non- ocean waters fall below SCA by Saturday night with wave heights remaining above 5 feet on the ocean through at least Sunday morning.
Sub-SCA conditions are then expected on all waters through at least Monday.

HYDROLOGY
While WPC has the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Saturday, rainfall should come over a long enough period to not cause any widespread hydrologic issues. Total accumulations of 0.5 to 0.75 inches expected with locally higher amounts possible in any thunderstorms.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Thursday night for NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.