Sunday, January24, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Springs, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:56PM Sunday January 24, 2021 3:52 AM EST (08:52 UTC) Moonrise 2:12PMMoonset 4:38AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ340 Peconic And Gardiners Bays- 337 Am Est Sun Jan 24 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Light snow likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..NE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Chance of light snow.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Chance of snow and rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ300 337 Am Est Sun Jan 24 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure slowly weakens over the canadian maritimes through the weekend, while high pressure builds in from the west. The high weakens Sunday night and Monday as low pressure approaches from the southwest. The low passes south of the area Monday night into Tuesday night. High pressure returns Wednesday, followed by a coastal storm passing fairly well south of the area Wednesday night through Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Springs, NY
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location: 41.04, -72.19     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 240526 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1226 AM EST Sun Jan 24 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure slowly weakens over the Canadian Maritimes through the weekend, while high pressure builds in from the west. The high weakens Sunday night and Monday as low pressure approaches from the southwest. The low passes south of the area Monday night into Tuesday night. High pressure returns Wednesday, followed by a coastal storm passing fairly well south of the area Wednesday night through Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. Forecast largely on track this hour with just some tweaks to the wind/gust grids to better reflect current trends, as winds are starting to relax a bit across southern CT and the lower Hudson Valley.

Upper level ridging over the Great Lakes will expand eastward for the second half of the weekend. A tight gradient will remain between the surface high building east from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley States and low pressure slowly winding down across the Canadian Maritimes. Model soundings generally support sufficient mixing through the night with NW winds gusting from 20 to 30 mph. Gusts may become less frequent, especially the second half of the night across some of the sheltered valley locations.

Under clear skies, lows will range from the lower teens well inland, to around 20 across the NYC metro. Due to the winds staying up through the night, radiational cooling will be limited and temperatures will be more homogeneous.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/. Upper level ridging moving into the Northeast on Sunday will dampen as it runs into the upper low slowly departing from the Canadian Maritimes. The latter of which will be crucial in the magnitude of blocking of two southern branch Pac systems during the upcoming week. Before then though, weakening surface high pressure will build in slowly from the west. Gusts will continue to be a factor on Sunday, but somewhat weaker with gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Highs will be in the lower to mid 30s, perhaps a degree or two warmer than Saturday. There will also be some mid and high level clouds during the afternoon and early evening hours as Pac moisture races across the northern tier of the country. Skies may vary between partly and mostly cloudy during the afternoon and early evening hours.

For Sunday night into Monday, winds will continue to slowly diminish with gusts dropping Sunday evening. Expect mainly mostly clear skies during this time with the chance of some mid and high level clouds returning Monday afternoon ahead of our next system. Lows Sunday night will be near normal, ranging from the mid teens inland to lower 20s at the coast. Highs will then moderate into the mid and upper 30s on Monday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. Low pressure moving through the Ohio Valley gets sheared and weakens as it runs into ridging and confluent flow aloft over the local area. Decent agreement among the models that the low weakens to more of a surface trough by the end of the day Tuesday before shifting SE through PA and NJ Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Didn't want to back off on POPs too much just yet for Tuesday and Tuesday night, but went ahead and delayed the onset of PCPN chances Monday night with good model agreement that it remains dry through at least midnight before chances increase SW to NE across the area late at night. As for the ending time of PCPN, will continue with a dry forecast for Wednesday although GFS and ECMWF show light PCPN for some of the area as low-mid moisture remains. Overall lift will however be weak as low-mid level lift weakens while we're still under the influence of ridging aloft and in a not-so-favorable location with respect to an upper jet streak.

Regarding PCPN type and amounts, there's increasing confidence in this being a light PCPN event with liquid equivalents in the order of a quarter inch or less. Thermal profiles support snow for the most part, however whether it be boundary layer temperatures or a weak warm nose aloft pushing in, some sleet is possible Tuesday afternoon and evening for parts of LI, NYC, and NE NJ. Forecast snow totals from late Monday night through Tuesday night are 1-3 inches west of the Hudson River, and up to 2 inches elsewhere.

Another storm system with the potential of greater impacts takes shape Wednesday night into Thursday as a shortwave moving into the Tennessee/Ohio Valley area strengthens a surface low that probably emerges off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. There is some downstream blocking INVOF Newfoundland as a lobe of vorticity there shifts SE, but this would serve to suppress the surface low and keep it SE of the 40N/70W benchmark. Plenty of time to see how models trend regarding the strength/position/timing of this 500mb feature as well as the potential of other factors such as the GGEM's depiction of another shortwave diving SE through the eastern Great Lakes. For now, will introduce low chances of snow/mixed rain and snow to the forecast Wednesday night through Thursday evening.

High pressure and dry weather then follow for Friday and Saturday with highs generally in the 30s.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/.

High pressure will gradually build in from the west through Sunday night while low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes weakens.

VFR.

NW winds, at times around 310 magnetic, generally 15 to 20 kt, gusting around 25 kt overnight and through most of Sunday. Winds and gusts will diminish Sunday afternoon, with gusts ending Sunday evening. Late Sunday evening into Sunday night winds will be NW less than 10 kt.

. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty .

No unscheduled amendments expected. Gusts around midday Sunday may be occasionally a few kts higher than forecast.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Late Sunday night. VFR. Monday. VFR, with MVFR/IFR developing late Monday night with increasing chances of snow. Tuesday. IFR, at times possibly lower, in snow, mainly during the day, with NE winds 10-12 kt with gusts up to near 20 kt. Improving conditions at night with gusts diminishing. Wednesday. VFR. Thursday. MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Winds 15-20G23-27kts with chance RA/SN.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE. The forecast is mostly on track this morning. Gales were replaced with an SCA this update with winds falling below criteria for ANZ355 and ANZ353. Marginal gales will continue on the eastern ocean waters, eastern Sound, and Peconic and Gardiners Bays through early Sunday morning. SCAs are in place elsewhere.

Winds and seas increase Monday night into Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens over the waters. SCA conditions will be possible on the ocean during Tuesday primarily for winds, and Tuesday night, primarily for the potential of a lingering swell pushing seas over 5 ft. The swell could keep seas up to 5 ft on the ocean into a portion of Wednesday before both winds and seas increase once again Wednesday night and Thursday due to the influence of a coastal storm. Too early to be certain, but a potential of gale force gusts on all waters exists during Thursday.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrologic concerns are anticipated through next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ335- 338-345. Gale Warning until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ330-340- 350. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ353- 355.

UPDATE . DBR AVIATION . MET


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 12 mi53 min 24°F 38°F1018 hPa (+0.4)
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 19 mi43 min WNW 13 G 18 20°F 1016 hPa-10°F
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 25 mi33 min NW 27 G 35 28°F 47°F1018.8 hPa16°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 42 mi53 min N 8.9 G 15 21°F 37°F1020.4 hPa (+0.4)

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY15 mi59 minWNW 17 G 28 mi23°F9°F55%1017.9 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT21 mi57 minNW 1010.00 miFair18°F3°F52%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTP

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Threemile Harbor entrance, Gardiners Bay, Long Island Sound, New York
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Threemile Harbor entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:38 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:24 AM EST     2.39 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:48 PM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:11 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:56 PM EST     1.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.50.91.41.82.22.42.32.11.71.20.70.20.10.30.71.11.41.61.71.61.31.10.7

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current
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The Race
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:50 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:38 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:43 AM EST     2.09 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:06 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:14 AM EST     -2.62 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 01:10 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:44 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:26 PM EST     1.94 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:45 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:34 PM EST     -2.15 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.6-0.80.21.21.92.11.71.10.1-1.1-2.1-2.6-2.4-1.8-0.80.31.41.91.91.50.8-0.3-1.4-2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.