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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 548 Am Est Sun Dec 3 2023
Today..E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late this morning and afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft, building to 2 to 3 ft this afternoon. Rain until late afternoon, then light rain with drizzle likely late. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft after midnight. Chance of light rain and drizzle in the evening. Patchy fog in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 548 Am Est Sun Dec 3 2023
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters.. Deepening low pressure tracks across the eastern great lakes today, with a secondary low developing to the south of the area. Both lows lift north and east of the area tonight into Monday. Weak high pressure returns for Tuesday. Another wave of low pressure develops off the middle atlantic coast Wednesday before high pressure returns on Thursday.

FXUS61 KOKX 031047 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 547 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
Deepening low pressure tracks across the eastern Great Lakes today, with a secondary low developing to the south of the area.
Both lows lift north and east of the area tonight into Monday.
Weak high pressure returns for Tuesday. A wave of low pressure develops off the Middle Atlantic coast Wednesday, passing well south and east. High pressure returns for Thursday. The next frontal system may move through the region next Friday or Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Rain has overspread much of the area will become steadier over the next few hours. Max amounts back to the south and west are shy of a .1"/hr.

Guidance has been relatively consistent with this system as rain overspreads the area this morning. A upper trough tracking from the Mid Mississippi Valley this morning and into the eastern Great Lakes by this evening will send a frontal system and multiple waves of low pressure into the Northeast tonight.
The main surface low will follow a similar track as it quickly occludes by this evening. A secondary low will form farther east across the Mid Atlantic states this afternoon, passing just south and east of the area this evening. Rain associated with this system will primarily be from overrunning due to a strengthening low-level easterly flow and a SW flow aloft. The steadiest rain will be this morning into early this afternoon.
As the mid levels dry out this afternoon, the rain will likely become lighter with areas of drizzle. Model time-height cross sections are still showing decent lift in the low-levels this afternoon due to the overrunning. So there could still be some pockets of steadier rain due to warm rain processes.

As the upper trough become more open and weakens across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast tonight, it will send a double-barreled low structure north and east of the area. There could still be a pocket of steadier rain working from west to east across the area this evening in association with the upper vort.

Rainfall amounts for the event will average around 0.75".

Temperatures today will see little fluctuation from this morning with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. This combined with east winds gusting to around 20 mph at the coast will make for a real raw day.

Behind the low tonight, east winds diminish and flip around to the west toward midnight. Modest cold advection will follow, but with winds and cloud cover to start lows will remain about 10 degrees above normal.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
For Monday, expect west winds and highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. This is still a shade above normal. Another upper trough passes to the south Monday afternoon/evening. This combined with the weakening and stationary upper trough across the Northeast and eastern Canada may produce enough mid and upper level lift for a cloudy afternoon. This appears to be driven by a coupling jet structure as one jet departs the Northeast and another approaches from the SW. The subcloud layer looks too dry at this time to support any precipitation.

Shortwave ridging aloft and a weak surface high build across the area late Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures during this time will return close to normal with lows mainly in the 30s and highs in the 40s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Another shortwave within the larger upper trough approaches Tuesday night. The shortwave will help amplify the trough as it pushes off the Middle Atlantic and southeast coast on Wednesday. The modeling continues to be in good agreement that the amplification will be too far east for any impacts from a low pressure developing off the Middle Atlantic coast. Have left in a slight chance PoP Tuesday night for southern portions of Long Island and extreme southeast Connecticut based on the model consensus, but any precip would largely be isolated. Colder temperature profiles would support some brief wet snow with potentially some rain mixed. These PoPs may need to be trended down in subsequent forecasts and conditions may stay dry Tuesday night and Wednesday given latest model trends.

The upper trough moves offshore Wednesday night into Thursday with heights rising into next weekend. High pressure returns on Thursday and may give way to a frontal system next weekend. The associated energy and shortwave passes well to our north, so have kept the forecast dry for now. The main theme heading into the end of the week and next weekend will be temperatures trending back above normal by next Saturday.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Weak low pressure system slowly approaches from the southwest today with the primary low reaching the eastern Great Lakes and a secondary low developing to the south of the area. The Great Lakes low tracks northward this evening while the offshore low moves east.

Generally widespread LIFR conditions expected through daybreak.
KGON remains VFR, but is expected to drop to MVFR or lower over the next hour or so. There may be some improvement as the flow strengthens somewhat and rain moves into the area, but conditions should remain IFR for much of the day today. Improvement to MVFR is possible late this afternoon, into the evening, as the rain tapers off. Again, timing remains uncertain, with uncertainty as to how much ceilings and visibilities improve. Conditions improve to VFR around 06Z Monday.

Winds will be generally light and variable until a light NE flow develops, and strengthens somewhat this morning. As the lows move over the region this evening winds become light and variable again. And with the low moving north tonight winds become westerly.

...NY Metro(KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments expected with rain and changing flight categories, but should generally be IFR most of the day today. Improvement to MVFR possible late in the day as rain tapers off. An occasional gust to around 15-20 kt possible in the morning, to around midday.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday night: Rain ending. MVFR, local IFR, especially east of the New York metro terminals. Becoming late.

Monday: VFR. W winds G15-20kt, becoming more NW at night.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. N-NW winds G15-20kt afternoon into night.

Thursday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE
A strengthening easterly flow this morning will bring SCA conditions to the ocean waters, eastern LI sound, and the eastern and southern bays of LI. Winds will then diminish by this evening and winds will flip around to the W by midnight.
SCAs will remain up for the ocean even with the lull as seas will be right around 5 ft. However, west winds increase with gusts up to 25 kt on the ocean waters by daybreak Monday.
Marginal SCA conditions could linger on the ocean through Monday night. Weak high pressure then follows for Tuesday with sub-SCA conditions.

Sub-SCA conditions expected on all waters Tuesday night through Friday with a weak pressure gradient. There is a chance for winds to reach SCA criteria on the ocean waters Wednesday night as low pressure well east of the area strengthens.

HYDROLOGY
Rainfall totals today will mainly be around 0.75 inches. No hydrologic impacts expected through next week.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-332-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 4 PM EST Monday for ANZ355.

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