Monday, September16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sound Beach, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 7:02PM Monday September 16, 2019 2:49 AM EDT (06:49 UTC) Moonrise 8:32PMMoonset 8:38AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 955 Pm Edt Sun Sep 15 2019
Overnight..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 955 Pm Edt Sun Sep 15 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure over the waters will give way to an approaching weak cold front overnight. This front moves through late Monday into Monday evening. High pressure then returns thereafter and remains in control through the end of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sound Beach, NY
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location: 41.04, -73.01     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 160554
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
154 am edt Mon sep 16 2019

Synopsis
High pressure over the area gives way to a weak cold front
overnight. This front moves through Monday into Monday evening.

High pressure then returns thereafter and remains in control
through the end of the week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
The forecast is mostly on track. Minor adjustments to evening
hourly temps, dewpoints, and winds were made with this update.

An approaching upper level trough will allow for some increase
in clouds. Latest okx sounding fairly dry. Most clouds will be
mid to upper level and conditions are expected to remain dry.

There will be light winds but with the clouds, expect some
partial mitigation of radiational cooling. Mav met blend was
used for lows, with some manual adjustment down 1-2 degrees for
eastern sections of the region where there will be a greater
time period with less clouds and therefore more radiational
cooling. The range for forecast lows will be mostly from the
upper 50s to upper 60s.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Tuesday
The high pressure gives way on Monday to an approaching weak
frontal system. There will be an associated weak cold front
that will approach as well. Models convey the passage of the
front to occur Monday and farther south of long island going
into Monday evening. The pressure gradient remains weak so winds
will be light and direction will be variable. Behind the front
Monday night, winds slightly increase and become more ne.

Concerning the rain showers with the front, not much is expected
looking at the consensus from numerical models. The forcing aloft
shown with the 500mb vorticity shows most of the positive vorticity
advection to the northeast of the region. Little to no surface
instability is forecast ahead of the front. Overall, not expecting
thunderstorms or any organized heavy rain. However, will have a
chance (around 30 percent) between 16-00z. For shower coverage,
expecting generally isolated to scattered.

Highs on Monday with the extra clouds and light winds as well as
limited vertical mixing, will be a few degrees cooler than the
previous day for high temperatures (mostly mid 70s to near 80).

Used mav met ecs blend but with less weight for met which
seemed too low.

Lows Monday night will once again have some mitigation of
radiational cooling but this time it will be because of
increasing winds late that will keep boundary layer more mixed.

Used relatively warmer mav guidance for lows which mainly range
from the lower 50s to lower 60s.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the ocean
beaches on Monday.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Longwave trough over the canadian maritimes will be slow to move
east into the north atlantic Tuesday into Wednesday. However,
deterministic models and ensemble means indicate ridging aloft and
at the surface dominating the synoptic pattern through the weekend.

Dry weather is expected through the long term. Mostly sunny on
Tuesday, but probably a little more in the way of clouds during
Wednesday as models show some moisture in the 850-925mb layer. There
appears to be a diminishing chance of low stratus and drizzle weds
night through thurs night as winds and the strength of high pressure
over the region through this period become less favorable for
formation. Highs near normal on Tuesday, then a couple of degrees
cooler on Wednesday and Thursday. The wind flow becomes more
offshore for most of the area Friday through Sunday with high
temperatures warmer than normal.

Aviation 06z Monday through Friday
A weak cold front crosses the area today, then high pressure
builds into the region.

Mid and high clouds moving into the region during the overnight
will lower and thicken after daybreak. In general,VFR
conditions are expected through much of the TAF period, although
a period of MVFR ceilings is possible this afternoon at kswf. In
addition, a few sprinkles are possible during the day across
most terminals, although the best chances will be across
kswf kteb kewr.

Timing of changes in wind direction remains a challenge with
light flow overall. In general, winds shift to the N NE at most
terminals between 11z-14z. While winds will maintain a
northerly component through much of the day at most terminals,
e SE winds are possible for a period late this morning into the
afternoon at coastal terminals. Winds then back to the NE again
tonight.

Outlook for 06z Tuesday through Friday
Monday night Vfr with clearing skies.

Tuesday and Wednesday Vfr with high pressure in control.

Thursday and Friday Vfr. Can't rule out late night early
morning radiation fog at the inland terminals.

Marine
Overall, a weak pressure gradient remains through Monday evening
with some increase in pressure gradient late Monday night.

Conditions will be below SCA through Monday night for all
waters, but NE gusts to near 20 kt are expected late Monday
night mainly for the ocean.

Ne winds on Tuesday diminish through the day. This will lead into an
extended period of e-ne sustained winds 10-15 kt with gusts under 25
kt through Thursday afternoon. Winds then become lighter Thursday
night as they veer towards s, then eventually sw-w on Friday.

Sca conditions are however possible on the ocean starting Wednesday
afternoon as ocean swells increase to 5 ft in association with
humberto.

Hydrology
No significant hydrologic impacts through the end of the week.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jc jm
near term... Jm pw
short term... Jm
long term... Jc
aviation... Feb
marine... Jc jm
hydrology... Jc jm
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 13 mi55 min N 1.9 G 2.9 68°F 71°F1016.8 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 18 mi49 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 66°F 71°F1016.8 hPa (-0.3)
44069 24 mi49 min W 5.8 G 7.8 71°F 72°F69°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 43 mi49 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 70°F 72°F1018.3 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT12 mi57 minWNW 310.00 miFair69°F57°F66%1017.4 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi53 minW 48.00 miFair65°F62°F90%1017.7 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY17 mi53 minW 610.00 miFair68°F66°F96%1017.7 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT18 mi3.9 hrsVar 45.00 miFog/Mist64°F60°F87%1017.8 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY24 mi3.9 hrsN 08.00 miFair61°F59°F93%1018.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBDR

Wind History from BDR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8------------------CalmCalm----CalmS7S8SW10S11SW10SW9SW7SW3Calm
1 day agoSE10----------------SE9SE7SE8S8S7S10
G15
S11S11SW14S11S11S11S9S12S11
2 days ago----NE8------------N5N10N9--NE9E10E15E11E14E12E10E10SE9SE8SE9

Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Beach, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Mount Sinai Harbor, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.