Sunday, February23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sound Beach, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 5:37PM Sunday February 23, 2020 12:16 PM EST (17:16 UTC) Moonrise 7:58AMMoonset 6:38PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1153 Am Est Sun Feb 23 2020
This afternoon..SW winds 5 to 12 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of light rain in the morning, then light rain likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of light rain or drizzle.
Wed..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon.
Wed night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely in the evening, then chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
ANZ300 1153 Am Est Sun Feb 23 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure remains in control of the weather through Monday. A warm front approaches Monday night through Tuesday and stalls to our south Tuesday night. Low pressure and a cold front then impact the weather Wednesday and Wednesday night, followed by high pressure building in slowly through the end of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sound Beach, NY
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location: 41.04, -73.01     debug


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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FXUS61 KOKX 231701 AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1201 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure remains in control of the weather through Monday. A warm front approaches Monday night through Tuesday and stalls to our south Tuesday night. Low pressure and a cold front then impact the weather Wednesday and Wednesday night, followed by high pressure building in slowly through the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. High pressure will be centered off the Carolina Coast today. Low RH through the atmospheric column results in a sunny day.

Chose to take a blend of the HRRR and RAP with respect to winds. Did this because I have liked how it has handled local sea breeze influences in past similar situations as of late. Therefore more of a true southerly component to the wind is expected for favored coastal locations, and perhaps a bit sooner than previously advertised for today. Adjusted hourly temps up through the early afternoon, especially further west. Adjusted temps across northern interior sections even more through the entire afternoon, by about 2-3 degrees. Went basically with a heavily weighted HRRR based blend with max temps today as it seems to have a better handle on skewing to warmer temps overall for today compared to rest of guidance. It also performed very well yesterday with max temperatures. Thus I think it handles any localized sea breeze circulations better for the afternoon. Some gusts to 20 mph are possible along the coast, with relatively light winds inland and away from coast.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. The high pressure system slowly drifts farther out to sea tonight and Monday. Dry conditions continue with a clear sky tonight, then clouds starting to lower and thicken as Monday progresses. Potential high temperatures on Monday warm up as temps through the boundary layer moderate, however there is some uncertainty regarding the degree to which the clouds offset this potential. Would think that we can at least achieve highs as warm as today's, but won't stray too far from those levels in the forecast.

A warm front then approaches Monday night. Some overrunning light rainfall could still sneak in late at night from mainly around the city to points west, but will maintain a forecast with low PoPs.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Longwave troughing begins to amplify across the Plains states with a broad surface low centered INVOF the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes. An associated warm front with perhaps a weak wave of low pressure along it approaches us, but remains to our south through the day. 850-700mb moisture increases along with periods of weak lift supplied by a series of shortwaves and thermal forcing ahead of the approaching warm front. Light rainfall eventually becomes likely for most of the forecast area during Tuesday.

The warm front stalls to our south Tuesday night as the parent low off to the west becomes more disorganized and weaker. Mid level drying and weakening lift reduce the rainfall potential, but there will still be a chance of light rain or drizzle through the night.

A 140kt jet streak helps the upper longwave trough to our west to become more negatively tilted as Wednesday progresses. This in turn helps consolidate and strengthen the surface low, but will still be centered to our west through the day. Moisture and lift increase here, more so over western portions of the forecast area and during the afternoon. Still, rain is expected to become likely across the entire forecast area by the end of the day.

The surface low then passes through Wednesday night with a cold front. Rain tapers to a chance of showers, and possibly a few snow showers mixed in late at night well NW of the city.

High pressure builds back in on Thursday, but very slowly as a cyclonic flow remains aloft. Breezy and dry for the most part, but cannot rule out a slight chance of mixed rain and snow showers well NW of the city as shortwave lift rotates through and combines with some low-mid level moisture. High temperatures for Thursday will still manage to reach at least normal levels in spite of the cold frontal passage as downsloping winds arrive from the west.

Cold advection will be more noticeable Friday and Saturday as 850mb temperatures fall through the period. High pressure will still be building in slowly during this time and a surface trough combined with perhaps some enough moisture and shortwave lift could trigger flurries NW of the city on Friday. Dry otherwise for both days with temperatures below normal.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. VFR conditions continue through the TAF period as high pressure across the southeast remains the dominate feature.

A light W-WSW winds this morning become SW into the early afternoon to around 10 kt. Wind direction should shift towards the south at coastal terminals after 19-21z and will trend southerly throughout the day. Winds diminish late this evening becoming light and variable overnight.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. Monday. VFR. Monday night through Tuesday. Increasing chances of light rain, becoming likely by Tuesday afternoon with MVFR or lower. Tuesday night. MVFR or lower with Chance of light rain. Wednesday. MVFR or lower with Rain likely in the afternoon and at night. E-SE gusts 15-20 kt at night, mainly along the coast. Thursday. Improving to VFR. W gusts around 20kt.

MARINE. A southwest, and in some instances a southerly flow increases this afternoon, however conditions remain below advisory criteria with a few gusts along the immediate near shore waters approaching 20 kt. Relatively weak high pressure over the waters with a lack of a significant pressure gradient will then maintain relatively tranquil conditions for all waters tonight through Monday night. A warm front approaches on Tuesday and stalls just off to the south Tuesday night. Winds become more easterly during this period and increase somewhat, but again likely remaining below advisory criteria. Ocean seas may however reach 5 ft by the end of the night with the help of a building swell. SCA conds then likely on Wednesday with a continued easterly flow that increases. Winds then shift S then SW-W behind a cold front Wednesday night and become gusty through Thursday. SCA conds are probable on all waters Thursday and Thursday night.

HYDROLOGY. Periods rain from Tuesday through Wednesday night are expected to total mostly between 0.50 and 1.00 inches. Hydrologic impacts are not anticipated for the most part, but there is a low chance of nuisance flooding late Wednesday into Wednesday night when rainfall will probably be at its heaviest.

EQUIPMENT. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power.

OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. NJ . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . JE NEAR TERM . JE SHORT TERM . JC LONG TERM . JC AVIATION . DJ MARINE . JC HYDROLOGY . JC EQUIPMENT .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 13 mi47 min SW 8.9 G 12 44°F 39°F1021.3 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 18 mi47 min SSW 6 G 7 40°F 38°F1021.3 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 31 mi57 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 43°F 28°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 40 mi47 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 45°F 32°F29°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 43 mi47 min W 5.1 G 8 47°F 40°F1022.9 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bridgeport, Sikorsky Memorial Airport, CT12 mi25 minSW 1310.00 miFair47°F21°F37%1021.5 hPa
Shirley, Brookhaven Airport, NY17 mi21 minSSW 10 G 1510.00 miFair52°F17°F25%1021.7 hPa
Islip, Long Island Mac Arthur Airport, NY17 mi81 minWSW 710.00 miFair50°F15°F25%1022.4 hPa
New Haven, Tweed-New Haven Airport, CT18 mi24 minSW 710.00 miFair46°F27°F47%1021.2 hPa
The Gabreski Airport, NY24 mi24 minSSW 1010.00 miFair50°F18°F28%1022.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBDR

Wind History from BDR (wind in knots)
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SW16SW11SW12SW9W4NW4CalmCalmSW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W3CalmCalmSW6SW7SW9SW13
1 day ago6S9S7SW11W7W3CalmSW7SW9W6W6W5W7W6SW9SW9W8W5W9SW8W7W86SW13
2 days agoSW6NW7W11
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Tide / Current Tables for Cedar Beach, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Mount Sinai Harbor, Long Island, New York
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.