Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wadsworth, OH

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Satellite indicates the upper-level trough axis is just crossing into south-central Michigan, northern Indiana, and southern Illinois. The cold front is well ahead the upper- level, currently east of of LPR-KMD, with an area of post- frontal light rain west of the cold front. This light rain will move eastward across the area through this morning. There is unlikely to be any lightning before noon today, but retained shower and thunderstorm wording due to some lingering elevated instability.

Additional isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon with the trough axis, generally east of I-77 and south of I-90. The aforementioned cold clears the area but doesn't get too far as it remains just to our south as weak high pressure builds in from the north. Patch to areas of fog will be possible tonight, in a similar area (east of I-77, south of I-90). Some models, such as the GLAMP, RAP, and NAM, produce a sizable area of dense fog (with 1/4SM visibility), so will have to keep an eye on this.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Looking at the broader picture, a weak upper-level ridge sets up over the southeast CONUS, with broad, weak west to southwest flow around the northern and western periphery of the ridge. In response, the stationary front lingering to our south with lift northward across our forecast area Tuesday night. Should see warm, moist air build back into the region Wednesday onward through the rest of the weak, resulting in high temperatures in the upper 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. Heat indices in the 90s are likely each day, largely due to the very humid airmass.

Most models have a shortwave trough moving northeast from the mid-Mississippi Valley Tuesday to right over our region Wednesday afternoon. This could provide a regional area of lift/forcing and limited but sufficient shear for organized convection, though uncertainty remains in favorability for severe weather. PoPs continue to be in the 60-70% range for Wednesday afternoon.

Conditions will be most favorable for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon as broad upper-level support approaches. Moderate instability will be present with ~25 knots of deep layer shear possible scraping our northern forecast area. CSU ML has broad support for low end severe weather potential (5%; the equivalent of an SPC marginal) Wednesday and Thursday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
By Friday, the upper-level trough/cold front is likely just entering the forecast area, with thunderstorms chances still in the forecast as the cold front crosses the area. High pressure builds in on Saturday and Sunday with much lower precipitation chances and slightly cooler temperatures through the weekend (we're talking mid-80s which is still near normal for most).
PoPs in the 20-40% remain in the forecast Saturday/Sunday despite expected high pressure. This is because high pressure is expected to be weak, and while cooler, temps/dew points will be sufficient for modest instability and diurnally driven isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/
VFR conditions are expected to continue for the majority of the TAF period. There will be a few hours of showers across all terminals besides KTOL in the early morning hours Monday. Don't expect any thunder to go along with these due to lack of instability, but can't rule it out completely after 12Z for the eastern terminals. There is a PROB30 group for MVFR visibility and -SHRA in those TAF sites that could see showers and will be brief if it does happen. KYNG is another exception to VFR conditions for Monday morning as there will be a chance for patchy fog to form from 08-11Z. Visibilities should reduce down to MVFR conditions during this time. Afterwards, visibility should bounce back to VFR for the remainder of the TAF period.

Winds across the region will be fairly light and variable throughout much of the TAF period. Exceptions to this will be KCLE and KERI, which will be impacted by a weak lake breeze Monday between 17-01Z. Winds will shift to be predominantly out of the northwest at 5-10 knots during this time. Winds will become light and variable after sunset.

Outlook...Mainly VFR favored through Tuesday, though there is a low chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly across the southern portion of the area. Higher chances for non-VFR will return on Wednesday and Thursday in showers and thunderstorms. Non-VFR chances may persist on Friday afternoon and evening in showers and thunderstorms, particularly across the southern portion of the area.

MARINE
Conditions on Lake Erie will be fairly quiet throughout this week with winds light and variable under 10 knots. Winds will shift to be predominately out of the south behind a warm front on Wednesday, but will still be light around 10 knots. Waves up until this point will be less than 2 feet. Next chance for increased winds will be Thursday behind a passing cold front and winds will pick up to 10-15 knots out of the southwest. Waves will pick up as well, mostly over the open waters, and could see waves from 2 to 3 feet at times. There will be higher chances for thunderstorms during this time, so winds and waves could be higher in those instances.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.