Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Montauk, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:39AMSunset 8:10PM Thursday July 29, 2021 6:16 AM EDT (10:16 UTC) Moonrise 11:25PMMoonset 11:28AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ332 Long Island Sound East Of The Mouth Of The Connecticut River- 450 Am Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers and possibly a tstm late.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt with occasional gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely. Some tstms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers early in the morning.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 450 Am Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front will approach today, and may enter the waters late today before a cold front follows tonight. High pressure will build in for Friday into Saturday. Low pressure will pass to the north on Sunday, followed briefly by high pressure on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montauk, NY
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location: 41.05, -71.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 290834 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 434 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SYNOPSIS.

An approaching cold front will allow showers to develop across interior southern New England this afternoon. Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected tonight as the cold front crosses the region. A noticeably drier air mass filters into Southern New England Friday afternoon into Friday night, with northwesterly breezes. Seasonable and dry on Saturday. A frontal system brings another threat for showers sometime Sunday and/or Sunday night. Dry weather returns for Monday before our weather pattern turns more unsettled into the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

430 AM Update .

* Threat for showers and a few embedded t-storms increases as the afternoon wears along mainly northwest of I-95

High pressure slowly moving east of the region was allowing for return southerly flow and increasing low level moisture very early this morning. There were some scattered mid level clouds overspreading much of the region with the lower clouds across the interior; where better low level moisture resides.

We expect much of the morning hours to feature dry weather with probably nothing more than a passing spot shower or two across the interior. In fact, some partial sunshine may occur for a time this morning= across eastern New England. High temperatures will top out mainly in the 75 to 80 degree range this afternoon.

The main concern later today revolves and the current severe MCV that was tracking across the upper midwest early this morning. This complex will continue to rapidly move southeast and is expected to produce more severe weather later today across portions of the mid Atlantic states. While the severe weather threat will remain to our south today; northern stream shortwave energy induces a modest southerly LLJ this afternoon. This will increase the forcing for ascent and the areal coverage/intensity of showers will increase as the afternoon wears along. Most of the showers this afternoon will be focused northwest of I-95 and especially across western MA & CT. There is some instability too with MUCapes increasing to between 500 and 1000 J/KG across parts of the interior. Therefore, a few embedded t-storms are possible across western MA & CT later today. However, the true warm sector will remain south of our region so we do not expect any severe weather.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/.

* Main threat for severe weather will be to our south, but there remains a low risk for isolated severe weather/localized flooding

* Mainly dry with comfortable temps returning for much of Friday

Tonight .

Quite a challenging forecast tonight revolving around the track of the current MCV and how far north the true warm sector will get. High resolution CAM/s have improved our ability to forecast these type of situations, but location/placement of various features remains quite difficult. There is the tendency for these complexes to move faster and gravitate further south towards the better instability than guidance indicates.

Therefore, odds may favor that the true warm sector stays south of our region. While we would still see showers and embedded t-storms with locally heavy rainfall given strong dynamics from the northern stream energy; the main severe weather threat would remain to our south. That being said; there are several parameters that have us concerned tonight especially towards the south coast. Strong dynamics are present with 40+ knots of effective shear along with 500 to 1000 J/KG of Cape south of the MA Turnpike. In addition, 0-1 km helicity values of 150 to 300 units are anticipated along a warm front. As a result some of the guidance; particularly the 00z 3 KM NAM as SPC SREF have various tornado parameters lit up especially towards the south coast. If the mesoscale processes come together just right there exists a low probability for isolated severe weather including a tornado/waterspout towards the south coast. This threat would be localized, but will need to be monitored closely tonight as these things can spin-up quickly. The limiting factor may end up being the northern stream shortwave focusing across northern New England and the MCV passing to our south. This may keep a true triple point/warm front from allowing the mesoscale processes to organize. Lastly, there will be a low risk for localized flooding given the strong forcing coupled with high PWATS/wet antecedent conditions.

Friday .

The bulk of the showers and embedded thunderstorms will be over by daybreak as the cold front/shortwave exit the region. A few left over showers are possible early in the morning. Otherwise, mainly dry weather is expected on Friday although a few spot showers will remain possible into the afternoon given upper trough/cold pool aloft. Low pressure will intensify as it lifts into the Canadian Maritimes allow for a pleasant northwest breeze with partial sunshine. High temperatures will mainly be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s, but some middle 80s are possible near the south coast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/.

Highlights .

* Saturday is the pick of the weekend with dry weather and low humidity. Cloudy with periods of rain on Sunday. * Unsettled weather with cooler than normal temperatures through middle of next week.

Details:

Persistent upper level trough dominates over the Northeast US through early next week, yielding below normal temperatures on most days. Normal highs for the last week of July are in the low to mid 80s. In general, expect highs to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal on most days with lower humidity to boot. So talk about a taste of early fall! Precipitation wise, multiple frontal passages will provide the chances for showers and thunderstorms with periods of dry conditions sandwiched in between.

A strong cold front sweeps through during the day on Friday but it does look like we should warm into the upper 70s/low 80s especially across Eastern MA/RI with sunshine but with falling dew points and breezy conditions. With dew points falling into the 40s, some locations could wake up to lows in the upper 40s if winds could decouple enough. It does look like the weekend would feature mostly dry and pleasant conditions, with Saturday looking like the pick of the weekend, with cool and crisp conditions. In fact, if the winds decouple overnight Friday, some locations could drop into the 40s on Saturday morning and Sunday morning with the trough axis centered over New England. Temperatures at 500mb drop to around -12C to -14C, which is close to the minimum moving average for late July according to the SPC sounding climatology for Chatham, MA. So talk about a taste of fall! Brief ridging looks to occur on Sunday along with a surface warm front that could result in showers. Then another trough swings in from Southern Ontario. So cooler than normal temperatures look to continue into early next week.

Finally, there are indications of a coastal storm sometime in the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame. We get into the favorable right entrance region of a 90 kt jet streak and a surface low tracks near the 70W/40N benchmark. This synoptic setup, if it were to materialize, would be rather unusual for early August. And depending on the track of the low, we could be looking at a Nor'easter! Nonetheless, it is too premature to offer any more forecast details at this time. But there is increasing confidence of a pattern change as the jet stream retreats back into Canada and the Bermuda High strengthens. So by late next week, we could be looking at a return to above normal temperatures and this is in line with CPC's 8-14 day outlook for above normal confidence for above normal temperatures.

AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z TAF Update .

Today . Moderate Confidence. Patches of low clouds early this morning were resulting in localized MVFR ceilings across the interior; while the rest of the region had VFR conditions. We probably will see the lower clouds burnoff by mid morning across the interior, but MVFR conditions will likely return by mid to late afternoon as the threat for showers and a few embedded t-storms increase. Eastern MA/RI should see mainly VFR conditions persist. Winds become S at 10 to 15 knots with some 20+ knot gusts expected along the coastal plain.

Tonight . Moderate Confidence. MVFR-IFR conditions will dominate with rounds of showers and embedded t-storms with locally locally heavy rainfall. SW winds of 5 to 15 knots.

Friday . High Confidence. MVFR ceilings early in the morning should improve to generally VFR by afternoon. Winds become NW at 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20-25 knots expected.

KBOS Terminal . Moderate Confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . Moderate Confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ .

Friday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday Night: VFR.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE.

Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Today . High Confidence. High pressure moving off the coast will allow for S winds of 10 to 20 knots by mid afternoon. We may see some 25 knot wind gusts develop by mid to late afternoon across our northern waters, so will start small craft headlines earliest in this region.

Tonight and Friday . High Confidence. Modest southwest low level jet should result in 25 knot wind gusts tonight ahead of the cold front. This coupled with the long fetch should yield 3 to 6 feet. We may also see a few strong thunderstorms overnight with the greatest risk across our southern waters. A cold front will cross the region early Friday morning and a decent pressure gradient should yield NW wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots. Therefore, small craft headlines have been posted for all open waters tonight into Friday.

/Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ .

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

HYDROLOGY. No active river flood warnings are in effect for rivers and waterways across southern New England.

However, after having a tremendous amount of rainfall from early to mid July, many rivers and streams continue to run above to much above normal across most of MA, northern CT, and far northern RI. This is resulting in swift currents that would not typically be seen in the summer. These swift currents can catch those swimming or tubing/kayaking on area waterways off guard. There have been 3 total reports of drownings in the last week on the Farmington River in CT and Squannacook River in MA given the higher than usual flows and swift currents.

Those with interests swimming, tubing or kayaking on area rivers and waterways should be aware that swift currents due to high flows are occurring. This can result in dangerous conditions, and it is generally discouraged to swim, inner-tube, or kayak until flows decrease.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ231>235-237-254>256. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ250-251.

SYNOPSIS . Frank/Chai NEAR TERM . Frank SHORT TERM . Frank LONG TERM . Chai AVIATION . Frank/Chai MARINE . Frank/Chai HYDROLOGY . Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 0 mi47 min 67°F 70°F1017.2 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 19 mi37 min S 7 G 8 68°F 1015 hPa60°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 23 mi47 min 66°F 68°F1017.3 hPa
44017 - 23 Nautical Miles Southwest of Montauk Point, NY 25 mi27 min S 7.8 G 9.7 70°F 72°F2 ft1017.1 hPa64°F
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 45 mi21 min 70°F2 ft
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 46 mi47 min S 1.9 G 2.9
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 47 mi47 min WSW 6 G 7 67°F 73°F1017.1 hPa

Wind History for New London, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montauk, Montauk Airport, NY3 mi23 minN 0 mi67°F63°F87%1017.2 hPa
Groton / New London, Groton / New London Airport, CT20 mi21 minN 010.00 miFair61°F60°F97%1016.7 hPa
Westerly, Westerly State Airport, RI22 mi24 minN 09.00 miA Few Clouds56°F56°F100%1017 hPa
Block Island State Airport, RI22 mi21 minSSW 510.00 miFair65°F61°F87%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMTP

Wind History from MTP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N5N5NE5N6E6NE7NE7E543333CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNW3NW4CalmCalmW54W63S56SW7SW8SW65SW4N5CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmW4NW3
2 days agoCalmCalmW4W5W433Calm344CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W3W3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Montauk, Fort Pond Bay, Long Island Sound, New York (2)
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Montauk
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Thu -- 01:22 AM EDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:04 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:54 PM EDT     2.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:41 PM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.82.121.71.310.70.30.20.30.71.21.72.12.221.71.41.10.70.40.30.60.9

Tide / Current Tables for The Race, Long Island Sound, New York Current (2) (expired 1993-12-31)
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The Race
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Thu -- 01:01 AM EDT     2.62 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:01 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:27 AM EDT     -3.18 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:40 AM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:26 PM EDT     2.76 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:33 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:58 PM EDT     -3.09 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:18 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.62.41.50-1.4-2.4-3.1-3-2.2-0.90.51.92.72.72.10.9-0.7-1.9-2.7-3.1-2.6-1.6-0.4

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